- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, ACLED, OCHA) + international press; Mozambican state media EXCLUDED there, with economics IMF-validated.

- A disputed October 2024 election triggered the worst unrest since the civil war (~300+ killed), while an ISIS-linked insurgency in gas-rich Cabo Delgado has repeatedly stalled a transformative ~US$20bn+ LNG project.

- Standout drags: post-election violence under entrenched FRELIMO rule, the Cabo Delgado insurgency, a 'hidden-debt' default legacy, and extreme cyclone exposure; the offset is the large, delayed LNG upside.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A 'hidden-debt' default legacy and weak fiscal base, against a large but insurgency-delayed LNG upside. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A weak revenue base, high debt, and the 2016 'hidden-debt' default legacy, on IMF support and pinning hopes on LNG revenue. (IMF reviews; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A managed metical with limited central-bank independence and FX fragility. (Bank of Mozambique; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The metical is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Brought into single digits under tight policy - a relative bright spot. (IMF; Bank of Mozambique)

Banking Stability - Thin and fragile, scarred by the hidden-debt crisis. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Coal, aluminium, and a transformative ~US$20bn+ LNG endowment - but repeatedly disrupted by the Cabo Delgado insurgency (TotalEnergies force majeure lifted/relifted). (Reuters; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.45 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.45 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched FRELIMO capture with weak rule of law and a pressured press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - FRELIMO capture, no real judicial independence, and pervasive corruption exposed by the hidden-debt scandal. (Freedom House; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Weak, with the hidden-debt episode a transparency black mark; usable where IMF-engaged. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and patronage-laden, with limited reach in the conflict-hit north. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with journalists attacked covering the unrest and Cabo Delgado. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.49 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -4.49 │ 58% │

│ long │ -4.49 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Post-election violence under entrenched rule, with northern displacement and high poverty. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A disputed Oct 2024 election kept FRELIMO (in power since 1975) in office and triggered the worst unrest since the civil war (~300+ killed); a 2025 dialogue eased but did not resolve it. (Al Jazeera; ACLED)

Civil Liberties - A violent crackdown on post-election protests - killings, mass arrests, and an internet shutdown. (Amnesty; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Strained by internal displacement; not a destination. (OCHA; UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - North-south and FRELIMO-RENAMO cleavages, the Cabo Delgado insurgency, and ~70% poverty. (World Bank; ACLED)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing but very poor, with a weak human-capital base. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.35 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.35 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned actor reliant on foreign troops against an ISIS-linked insurgency. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 89% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned with broad partners (Western LNG investors, Rwandan/SADC troops in the north, China), reliant on outside security help. (Reuters; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - Worsened -7 -> -8: insurgents attacked a wildlife camp in Niassa Reserve Sept 4, evacuating at least three Americans (Reuters, Independent), and abducted up to 20 workers including a South African Sept 7 (AP). Cabo Delgado violence is metastasizing southward into Niassa, geographically beyond prior incident clusters. Confidence 0.87 -> 0.89.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned, but US sanctions hit hidden-debt figures and FX is constrained. (US Treasury; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.10 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's most cyclone-exposed, with weak healthcare and infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 74% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Top-tier Germanwatch CRI (Idai/Kenneth/Freddy) - cyclones plus coastal sea-level plus flood-drought, very low readiness. (Germanwatch CRI; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Weak and low-spend, repeatedly storm-damaged with cholera outbreaks. (WHO; OCHA)

Infrastructure - Poor and cyclone-battered, though the Nacala/Maputo corridors and gas hold upside. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - High - insurgent violence in the north, kidnapping in Maputo, and Channel piracy. (ACLED; OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against extreme cyclone/flood exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.15 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.25 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.70 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.87 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.24 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.67 │ -4.69 │ -4.70 │

│ Assets │ -3.86 │ -3.87 │ -3.88 │

│ Currency │ -3.24 │ -3.24 │ -3.24 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘