- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics built from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, AfDB, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, Anti-Slavery International, US TIP Report, BTI, ICG) + international wire; Mauritanian state media EXCLUDED there, economics IMF-validated.

- Comparatively stable for the region: President Ghazouani won a 2024 second (and final) term (~56%) and the 2019 handover was Mauritania's first peaceful elected-to-elected transition - but power remains military-rooted and competition constrained.

- Standout flags: a security success - no jihadist attack since ~2011 via a non-aggression posture, hardened intelligence, and the Mehari border guard, even as JNIM presses Mali's nearby Kayes region; a persistent chattel-slavery legacy (~149,000 still enslaved, descent-based, Haratine victims) with reformist courts but ongoing arrests of anti-slavery (IRA) activists; and new offshore GTA gas (BP/Kosmos, first LNG export 2025) layered on iron ore and rich-but-overfished waters.

- Currency: the ouguiya (MRU) is a sovereign, lightly-managed float (since the Dec 2023 interbank FX market, a +/-5% band vs a USD-heavy basket) - judged on the Central Bank of Mauritania's own credibility; not a reserve currency.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

An IMF-praised, prudently-managed extractive economy (iron ore, fishing, now offshore gas) with low inflation and falling debt, against resource concentration and overfishing risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 62% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 68% │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Markedly improved - deficit near ~0.3% of GDP in 2025 on higher extractive revenue, public debt declining (~36% external), moderate distress risk, IMF-program backed. (IMF; AfDB; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A sovereign, lightly-managed float (interbank FX market since Dec 2023); the central bank has gained some credibility but limited depth and capacity. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The ouguiya is not an international reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and well-managed - around ~1.5-2.5% in 2024-25, with a modest rise expected on global food/energy pass-through. (IMF; AfDB)

Banking Stability - Small, concentrated banking sector with limited penetration but no acute distress signal. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Trade Actions Capacity - Improving trajectory as GTA gas (first LNG export 2025) joins iron ore (~50% of exports) and fishing (~10% of GDP), but a resource-concentrated profile with serious overfishing/stock-depletion risk. (World Bank; AfDB; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.54 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +0.59 │ 69% │

│ long │ +0.63 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Military-rooted governance with weak-but-engaging institutions, constrained but not crushed press, and a justice system uneven on slavery enforcement. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 62% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 68% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Limited judicial independence and entrenched elite/military influence, though it has built specialized anti-slavery/trafficking courts (a 2025 Special Tribunal). (Freedom House; V-Dem; US TIP; BTI)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and actively IMF-engaged on macro data, with capacity gaps. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Moderate-to-weak capacity, reform-oriented under the IMF program but thin human capital (HCI ~0.38). (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Partly free relative to the region but constrained, with arrests of activist-journalists (e.g. IRA-linked) in 2025. (RSF; HRW; UNPO)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.99 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -2.99 │ 66% │

│ long │ -2.99 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Relatively stable elected-military governance, undercut by a persistent slavery legacy, ethnic/caste hierarchy, and constrained activism. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Comparatively stable - Ghazouani's 2024 re-election followed Mauritania's first peaceful elected-to-elected handover in 2019, though power stays military-rooted. (Freedom House; BTI; Reuters)

Civil Liberties - Partly Free with real constraints - 2025 arrests of anti-slavery (IRA) activists and journalists, and discrimination against Haratine/Afro-Mauritanians. (Freedom House; HRW; UNPO; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - A developing legal framework praised by a UN rapporteur, but reports of irregular-migrant deportations and detention along the EU-funded migration route. (OHCHR; HRW; State Dept ICS)

Social Cohesion - A deep, unresolved fault line: descent-based chattel slavery persists (~149,000 enslaved) atop a White-Moor / Haratine / Afro-Mauritanian hierarchy. (Anti-Slavery Intl; US TIP; HRW)

Demographics - Young and growing, but weak human capital (high stunting, low schooling) limits the dividend. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.48 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -1.48 │ 67% │

│ long │ -1.48 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable, Western-partnered counterterrorism actor that has avoided attacks for over a decade, exposed to a worsening Sahel/JNIM threat on its eastern border. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 62% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 62% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A steady EU/US/Gulf security and migration partner (EU-funded Mehari guard), more consistent than its junta-run neighbors. (ICG; EuroMeSCo; State Dept ICS)

Conflict Involvement - No jihadist attack since ~2011, but JNIM's surge in Mali's adjacent Kayes region presses the remote eastern border (the Route de l'Espoir corridor). (ICG; Africa Center; Soufan Center; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned; a managed float with some FX frictions but no severe capital-control regime. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.03 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +0.67 │ 63% │

│ long │ +0.31 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Harsh desert climate, weak healthcare and human capital, thin infrastructure, with relatively low violent-crime exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Saharan/Sahel drought, desertification, sandstorms, and low-lying Nouakchott coastal/sea-level risk. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak system with poor outcomes and thin coverage outside Nouakchott (HCI ~0.38, high stunting). (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Sparse over vast desert, though extractive/port and new gas infrastructure are upgrading along the coast. (World Bank; AfDB)

Crime Safety - Relatively low violent crime by regional standards; main risks are remote-area banditry and Sahel-spillover exposure. (OSAC; State Dept ICS)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration against drought/heat exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.62 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.73 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.04 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.97 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.18 │ 67% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.99 │ -2.01 │ -2.04 │

│ Assets │ -0.93 │ -0.97 │ -1.02 │

│ Currency │ -0.18 │ -0.20 │ -0.23 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘