- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF Art IV, World Bank, Mo Ibrahim, V-Dem, RSF, FATF) + international press.

- Africa's governance and income leader - a clean Nov 2024 turnover amid a wiretapping scandal, and the 2024 UK-Mauritius Chagos sovereignty win - against high public debt, an aging population, and a real press/civil-liberties wobble.

- Standout features: strong institutions, a diversified services economy, and the Chagos settlement, against debt ~87-88% of GDP (above the legal ceiling), demographic aging (TFR ~1.4), cyclone exposure, and an election-eve social-media shutdown. Net positive.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A diversified, own-currency services economy, against high public debt now forcing austerity. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public-sector debt ~87-88% of GDP (above the 80% statutory ceiling), with the 2025-26 budget pivoting to consolidation toward ~75% by 2030. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The own rupee on a managed float gives genuine, if small-economy-constrained, autonomy. (Bank of Mauritius)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rupee is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderated from the post-2022 spike and broadly contained in 2025. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Sound and liquid, with a large offshore/global-business sector creating funding-volatility risk. (Coface; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A diversified services-led economy (finance, tourism, ICT) with many tax treaties, exposed to external-demand swings. (OECD; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.86 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.86 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.86 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Africa's strongest governance, but with a corroborated press-freedom deterioration. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The strongest governance in Africa (Mo Ibrahim #1) with independent courts; the wiretapping scandal exposed misuse but elections/courts held. (BTI 2026; Mo Ibrahim)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, transparent statistics, fully IMF-engaged. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Strong, professional administration with high state capacity for its peer group. (World Bank; BTI)

Press Freedom - A notable deterioration - a polarised media, ICT-Act prosecutions, annual licensing, and a pre-election social-media shutdown. (RSF 2025; Civicus)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.48 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +4.48 │ 71% │

│ long │ +4.48 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable competitive democracy and cohesion, with a real civil-liberties wobble and aging. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The Nov 2024 landslide turnover and peaceful concession reaffirmed stable, competitive democracy. (Al Jazeera; ECN)

Civil Liberties - Broadly free, but the temporary election-eve social-media ban and ICT-Act harassment mark a real wobble. (Al Jazeera; Civicus)

Treatment Non Citizens - Generally tolerant and diverse, with standard migrant-labour concerns but no systematic discrimination. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Stable multi-ethnic cohesion; communal politics managed peacefully. (BTI 2026)

Demographics - An aging headwind - median age ~39, TFR ~1.4, the 60+ share nearly doubled, pressuring pensions/fiscal. (OECD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.44 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +3.44 │ 68% │

│ long │ +3.44 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable, treaty-based partner with the Chagos dispute resolved. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A reliable, predictable partner - the orderly Chagos deal with the UK/US underscores treaty-based diplomacy. (Reuters)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict; the Chagos sovereignty dispute was resolved diplomatically via the 2024 treaty. (press)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Off the FATF grey list since 2021, open economy, with a 2027 FATF review to sustain. (FATF; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.85 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +5.85 │ 72% │

│ long │ +5.85 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong infrastructure and healthcare, against acute SIDS cyclone exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - An Indian-Ocean SIDS with cyclone plus sea-level exposure, but by far the highest African adaptive readiness (top-half ND-GAIN). (ND-GAIN; IPCC SIDS)

Healthcare - Among Africa's best - high life expectancy and broad access, consistent with high-income status. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Strong (ports, roads, telecom, finance) underpinning its offshore-hub role. (World Bank; BTI)

Crime Safety - Relatively safe and low-violence. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - High cyclone/flood exposure (~0.8%-of-GDP recurring losses) despite better-than-peer penetration. (World Bank CCDR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.91 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +2.71 │ 67% │

│ long │ +2.52 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.55 │ 70% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.35 │ 71% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.05 │ 72% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.61 │ +3.58 │ +3.55 │

│ Assets │ +3.37 │ +3.35 │ +3.33 │

│ Currency │ +3.05 │ +3.05 │ +3.05 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘