- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, UN PDNA/OCHA, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international press.

- Acute macro-financial distress (inflation ~33%, a 44% 2023 kwacha devaluation with a steep parallel premium, an IMF ECF that lapsed in May 2025, external debt distress at ~88% of GDP), against a genuine democracy that delivered a peaceful Sept 2025 turnover.

- Standout features: a comparatively free and competitive democracy with relatively strong courts, against severe macro distress and extreme climate exposure (Cyclone Freddy 2023); the drag is the economy and disasters, not repression.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

In external debt distress with high inflation, a lapsed IMF program, and chronic forex shortages. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - In external debt distress, public debt ~88% of GDP and interest ~7% of GDP; the ECF terminated May 2025 with restructuring unfinished. (IMF; AFRODAD)

Monetary Independence - The Reserve Bank has nominal autonomy but persistent forex scarcity and political pressure constrain effective policy. (IMF; press)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The kwacha is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~33% y/y, food- and forex-driven, persistently high through 2024-25. (IMF; Al Jazeera)

Banking Stability - Broadly solvent but operating amid severe forex shortages and high sovereign-debt exposure. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Landlocked, narrow export base (tobacco-dominant), chronic forex/fuel shortages, highly aid-dependent. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.16 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -4.04 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.93 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Comparatively strong courts and a relatively open press, against thin administration. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A relatively independent judiciary (the 2020 election annulment) but persistent corruption (CPI ~34/100) - comparatively the region's stronger. (TI; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Functional, IMF-engaged, with capacity limits. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Thin, patronage-affected, aid-dependent, with weak revenue mobilisation. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - A relatively open media environment by regional standards, with episodic harassment. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.55 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -1.55 │ 61% │

│ long │ -1.55 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A competitive democracy with a peaceful 2025 handover, strained by economic hardship. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A competitive democracy with a peaceful Sept 2025 handover, but fragile from severe economic stress. (Al Jazeera; Chatham House)

Civil Liberties - Among the freer states in the region - 'Partly Free' with real rights, tempered by violence against women. (Freedom House; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts refugees (Dzaleka) under an encampment policy with movement/work restrictions. (UNHCR; HRW)

Social Cohesion - Regional/ethnic political cleavages but broadly peaceful; cost-of-living strain dominates. (Freedom House)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing; potential dividend offset by very low human capital and poverty. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.55 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -0.55 │ 61% │

│ long │ -0.55 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, Western/multilateral-aligned, conflict-free partner with de-facto forex rationing. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable, donor-reliant, non-belligerent partner. (World Bank; inference)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict or insurgency - internally and externally peaceful. (ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned, but acute forex rationing functions as de-facto capital/import control. (IMF; press)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.57 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +1.57 │ 66% │

│ long │ +1.57 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Extreme cyclone/flood/drought exposure with a weak, donor-dependent health system. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-25 - Cyclone Freddy 2023 devastation, drought-flood whiplash, rain-fed maize, very low readiness. (ND-GAIN; Germanwatch CRI)

Healthcare - Weak, donor-dependent, with severe workforce shortages and recurrent cholera. (WHO; HRW)

Infrastructure - Low electrification, poor roads, chronic fuel shortages, and landlocked corridor dependence. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate crime, with episodic hardship-driven unrest but no systemic insecurity. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against high cyclone/flood/drought exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.28 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -5.40 │ 61% │

│ long │ -5.51 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.07 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.40 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.67 │ 67% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.07 │ -2.07 │ -2.07 │

│ Assets │ -2.44 │ -2.40 │ -2.36 │

│ Currency │ -2.67 │ -2.60 │ -2.52 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘