- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025/26, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Malaysian official (DOSM, Bank Negara, MITI) + Malaysian independent press (Malaysiakini, The Edge, Free Malaysia Today).

- Domestic media scored on observable actions (court rulings, statutes, RSF/TI indices) rather than framing, given online-safety/communications/sedition pressures.

- Standout features: sound macro and banks, standout affordable healthcare, and an English-friendly long-stay regime, against rule-of-law/press constraints, a fragile coalition, and monsoon-flood exposure. Source-lean: HIGH but direct Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank, sound banks, and anchored inflation, with fiscal consolidation on a credible track. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.50 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~64.8% (above the 60% target) with the deficit narrowing (4.1% toward 3.5%) on subsidy reform - a credible trajectory. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Bank Negara is credible (the policy rate held at 2.75%) on a managed float, with a firm ringgit. (BNM)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The ringgit is not a reserve currency. (IMF)

Inflation - Headline/core ~1.4%/2.0% - moderate and anchored. (BNM)

Banking Stability - Robust capital and liquidity with no systemic risk, watching leveraged-borrower and non-bank pockets. (IMF Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - An electronics/semiconductor base (~27% of exports) plus palm oil and LNG, a China+1 beneficiary, against a settled but real US-tariff regime and commodity-price swings. (USTR; MITI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.98 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +3.29 │ 75% │

│ long │ +3.59 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable official statistics and a competent technocracy, against a rule-of-law legacy and constrained press freedom. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Reform progress (WJP ~56/143) against a judicial/political-interference legacy and the 1MDB aftermath. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - DOSM/BNM data is IMF-validated and usable. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent technocracy (notably the central bank), dragged by bumiputera patronage and uneven delivery. (WJP)

Press Freedom - RSF ~88th ('problematic') and improving, but 2025 online-safety and communications amendments expanded vague content powers. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.44 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +1.44 │ 70% │

│ long │ +1.44 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A welcoming long-stay regime and relative stability, against a fragile coalition, civil-liberty limits, and ethnic tension. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at near 0. Bloomberg reported on Aug 27 that Anwar is weighing delaying national elections into the second half of 2027, sourced to 'people familiar', and a bill to impose prime-ministerial term limits fell two votes short. Anonymous-source reporting of a deliberation that has not happened cannot move a score, and the term-limit vote could not be date-confirmed. Direction noted and carried forward. Anwar separately restored an April fuel-subsidy quota cut on Merdeka eve, which is fiscal loosening for political reasons. Long held -1.

Civil Liberties - Sedition, LGBT, and religious restrictions and defamation prosecutions, improving slowly. (Freedom House 2025; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - A revamped long-stay program (MM2H) and employment passes - lawful, English-friendly, durable for the affluent - with no easy citizenship and migrant-labour abuses a drag. (ASEAN Briefing)

Social Cohesion - Multi-ethnic, with bumiputera affirmative-action tension and rising religious conservatism. (Freedom House)

Demographics - A relatively young, favourable structure now, with ageing ahead. (UN; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.43 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -0.18 │ 73% │

│ long │ -0.79 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned ASEAN hedger with low-intensity maritime friction and a broadly open account. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A non-aligned hedger (2025 ASEAN chair, a BRICS partner) balancing East and West. (Fulcrum)

Conflict Involvement - South China Sea claims versus China, managed at low intensity via quiet diplomacy. (RFA)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Broadly open, with a 1998-era capital-control history a tail memory. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.92 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +0.74 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.56 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Standout affordable healthcare and good infrastructure, against recurrent monsoon-flood exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Moderate vulnerability, decent readiness - coastal flooding, sea-level, heat, peatland/forest exposure. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Strong, affordable, near-universal public care plus a major medical-tourism hub - a genuine strength. (IMF; observed)

Infrastructure - Good - the capital region strong on transit, airports, and telecom - with rural gaps. (observed)

Crime Safety - Moderate and generally safe. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Flood exposure in a still-developing market. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.32 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +2.11 │ 71% │

│ long │ +1.90 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.12 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.01 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.27 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.48 │ +1.30 │ +1.12 │

│ Assets │ +1.99 │ +2.01 │ +2.03 │

│ Currency │ +2.27 │ +2.40 │ +2.53 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘