- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF Art IV, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, Mo Ibrahim) + international press.

- A stable democracy (the March 2025 inauguration of Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, its first female president, capped a clean cycle) and an African press-freedom leader, with a credible but time-distant oil/green-hydrogen upside.

- Standout features: strong institutions and a transformational Orange-Basin oil/hydrogen optionality (first oil ~2029-30, unrealized), against among the world's worst inequality (~36% unemployment), a rand-peg, and severe drought. Symmetric with a positive long-tail.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Steady but rand-constrained and mineral-dependent, with a large unrealized oil/hydrogen upside. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ +1.50 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Manageable but constrained - moderate deficits/debt, with the IMF urging consolidation amid drought and social spending. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The Namibian dollar is pegged 1:1 to the rand in the Common Monetary Area, effectively importing South African policy. (Bank of Namibia)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The Namibian dollar is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and easing (~3.5% in 2025 toward ~2.9%), anchored by the rand peg. (Bank of Namibia)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised and supervised, with reserves adequate to sustain the peg. (Bank of Namibia)

Trade Actions Capacity - Mineral-concentrated (uranium, diamonds) and dented by weak diamond demand, with offshore oil/green-hydrogen potentially diversifying exports later this decade. (AfDB; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.92 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +1.13 │ 80% │

│ long │ +1.34 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Independent courts, credible data, and a world-leading press environment. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An independent judiciary and broadly respected rule of law, among Africa's better performers. (Freedom House 2025; Mo Ibrahim)

Statistical Integrity - Credible statistics, fully IMF-engaged. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Reasonably capable by regional standards, stretched by high unemployment and delivery demands. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A regional and global leader - RSF ranked Namibia near the world's top in 2025. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.70 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +4.70 │ 72% │

│ long │ +4.70 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable democracy and protected liberties, against among the world's worst inequality. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable, with an orderly 2024-25 cycle and SWAPO continuity under a new president. (Al Jazeera; ECN)

Civil Liberties - Broadly protected - rated 'Free' with vibrant civil society and press. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Generally tolerant, with legacy marginalisation issues and an unresolved colonial-genocide reparations dynamic. (HRW)

Social Cohesion - Politically stable but among the world's most unequal (Gini ~0.6) with ~36% unemployment. (World Bank)

Demographics - A young potential dividend blunted by ~17% HIV and very high youth unemployment. (AfDB; UNAIDS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.98 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +2.98 │ 70% │

│ long │ +2.98 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A peaceful, non-aligned, sanction-free partner integrated with South Africa. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable non-aligned partner tied to South Africa (CMA/SACU), courting diversified energy investment. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict, peaceful internally and externally. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions exposure, broadly open under the CMA. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.42 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +5.42 │ 72% │

│ long │ +5.42 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good regional infrastructure, against extreme aridity and drought. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme aridity (the driest in sub-Saharan Africa) and recurrent drought, with better governance/readiness offsets. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Functional but burdened by high HIV prevalence and rural gaps. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Comparatively good - Walvis Bay port, roads, and growing energy investment. (World Bank; AfDB)

Crime Safety - Moderate; safer than several neighbours, with urban property/violent crime. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - High drought exposure with limited penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.24 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +0.13 │ 58% │

│ long │ +0.02 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.07 │ 71% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.73 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.36 │ 76% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.03 │ +3.05 │ +3.07 │

│ Assets │ +2.65 │ +2.73 │ +2.81 │

│ Currency │ +2.36 │ +2.49 │ +2.62 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘