- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/politics rebuilt from independent/multilateral sources (IMF Art IV/ECF/RSF, World Bank MPO, UN/OCHA/UNHCR, V-Dem, Freedom House 2026, RSF 2026, HRW, ACLED, Crisis Group) + international press (Reuters/AFP/Al Jazeera/France 24); junta/state media EXCLUDED on governance, rights, and security claims.

- Data limitation: a data-poor conflict state; security figures and post-coup macro data are external estimates with reduced confidence; the CFA franc is euro-pegged via BCEAO with a French convertibility guarantee.

- Standout drags: a July-2023 coup junta that detains ex-president Bazoum and dissolved all parties, a uranium nationalization (Somair/Orano) drawing adverse international rulings, and a Western security exit (US Agadez drone base and French troops gone) toward Russia; the oil-export ramp via the Benin pipeline is the rare upside. Net: negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

An oil-driven growth ramp and CFA stability, offset by high debt distress, uranium-dispute risk, and post-coup financing strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - At 'high' risk of debt distress with ~47-52% of GDP debt, arrears, and tight financing, though oil revenue and an IMF ECF arrangement provide some anchor. (IMF ECF/Art IV 2025; World Bank MPO)

Monetary Independence - The CFA-franc euro peg gives stability and a French convertibility guarantee but zero autonomy, under the regional BCEAO. (IMF/BCEAO)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Peg-anchored and receding toward the ceiling (~4% 2025, easing), elevated only by food/conflict shocks. (IMF; World Bank MPO)

Banking Stability - BCEAO-supervised and peg-backed, but strained by sovereign arrears and post-coup financing conditions. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Crude exports via the China-built Benin pipeline (>$2bn) plus uranium drive a growth ramp, but the Somair/Orano nationalization and an adverse ICSID ruling and recurring pipeline/Benin disputes cap upside. (S&P Global; Reuters; Manara/Discovery)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.62 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.26 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.11 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A coup junta ruling by decree with detained ex-leadership, dissolved parties, and a repressed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Military rule since the July-2023 coup, all parties dissolved, ex-president Bazoum detained without trial (UN found the detention arbitrary). (Freedom House 2026; HRW; UN WGAD)

Statistical Integrity - Still IMF-engaged via ECF reviews, but post-coup disruption and oil-data novelty reduce reliability. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and underfunded, strained by sanctions-era shocks and the security burden. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Worsened -6 -> -7: Human Rights Watch reported on Sept 3 that Moussa Kaka, director of Radio Television Saraounia and a former RFI correspondent, is feared forcibly disappeared after leaving his Niamey office on the evening of Aug 31, days after the failed coup. Reporters Without Borders demanded the government disclose his whereabouts (AFP via allAfrica, Sept 4). A prominent broadcaster disappearing during a post-coup sweep, with no official account, is a step beyond the licence suspensions already priced.

Civil-Military Relations - HELD at -9, which is already the junta floor, but the basis is now much stronger and worth recording. The Aug 28-29 mutiny shows the failure mode running in both directions at once: there is no civilian principal to control the armed forces, AND the armed forces cannot control themselves, since junior officers including special forces moved against the junta and were put down only by foreign troops. Niger is now the clearest case in the canon of a command structure that is simultaneously unaccountable and internally contested.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.79 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.79 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.79 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An entrenched junta and spreading insurgency, with large displacement and acute food insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -6.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened near -5 -> -7 and long -5 -> -6, BOOKED LATE as a correction. A mutinous faction calling itself the Armed Forces for the Restoration of the Fatherland attempted a coup against Tiani overnight on 2026-08-28/29, targeting the presidency, national television and Base Aerienne 101 next to Niamey airport. Roughly 27 were killed and about 100 mutineers arrested, and loyalists retook the air base only with roughly 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and Russian drone support on the evening of Aug 29 (ISW Africa File, Sept 3). Algeria flew four Su-30s into Niamey on Aug 30, its first such deployment since 1973. Arrests then widened to political figures including former defence minister Kalla Moutari and suspected sympathizers from ousted President Bazoum's party. A junta that cannot suppress its own officers without foreign troops is materially less stable than one that can, and the long horizon moves too because the fracture is inside the armed forces rather than in the street.

Civil Liberties - Parties dissolved, dissent suppressed, and the deposed president and associates detained. (Freedom House 2026; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts refugees from Mali/Burkina/Nigeria while producing displacement; protection strained by funding cuts. (UNHCR 2025; OCHA)

Social Cohesion - A second major attack in 2026 hit Niamey's Diori Hamani airport / 101st air base June 18, claimed by al-Qaeda-linked JNIM after 2+ hours of fighting - a sustained, not one-off, jihadist capability against the capital's key military-aviation asset (Al Jazeera, Africanews, France 24 - independent). The junta's France/Benin/Ivory-Coast 'sponsor' claims and casualty tallies are junta-sourced and excluded. Held at -7; confidence up.

Demographics - Among the world's highest fertility, straining food, jobs, and services faster than the economy can absorb. (UN; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.35 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.25 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.14 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Pivoted from the West to Russia, exited ECOWAS into the AES, with a spreading insurgency and investment-dispute risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Expelled US forces (Agadez base closed Aug-2024) and French troops, exited ECOWAS (Jan-2025) for the Russia-aligned AES - isolated from the West. (Stars and Stripes; France 24; Reuters)

Conflict Involvement - Rising ISGS/ISSP and JNIM violence in Tillaberi/the tri-border, less catastrophic than Mali/Burkina but worsening. (ACLED; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - ECOWAS sanctions lifted, but the Somair/Orano nationalization, an adverse ICSID ruling, and immobilized uranium raise expropriation/capital risk. (Reuters; Manara)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.10 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Extreme climate vulnerability, very weak health, sparse infrastructure, and spreading insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 74% │ -8.0 │ -8.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Near ND-GAIN rock-bottom - extreme Sahel desertification/heat/drought, the fastest population growth, near-zero readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Very weak with high child mortality and SAM, aid-dependent and stretched by population growth. (WHO/UNICEF; OCHA)

Infrastructure - Landlocked and sparse, with the new oil pipeline a bright spot but power access and roads very low. (World Bank; AfDB)

Crime Safety - Insecure in border regions with jihadist attacks, kidnapping, and banditry; Niamey relatively calmer. (ACLED; advisories)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against high climate and conflict exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.70 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.80 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.90 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.84 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.52 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.56 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.98 │ -4.91 │ -4.84 │

│ Assets │ -3.66 │ -3.52 │ -3.37 │

│ Currency │ -2.56 │ -2.33 │ -2.11 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘