- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, HRW, OCHA) + Nigerian official (NBS, Central Bank of Nigeria, NUPRC) + Nigerian independent press (Premium Times, BusinessDay, Vanguard, Guardian NG, Nairametrics, ICIR).

- A painful reform cycle is underway: the 2023 naira float and fuel-subsidy removal drove an inflation/cost-of-living shock now easing, with a concluded bank recapitalisation, reserves at a multi-year high, and a major new refinery online.

- Standout drags: severe internal insecurity, a power/infrastructure crisis, very high crime, weak healthcare, and a resource-curse oil model. Source-lean: HIGH but low-distortion Anglophone (English is official); northern-language insecurity reporting under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A painful reform turn (float, subsidy removal, bank recapitalisation), against a crushing debt-service burden, high inflation, and a resource-curse oil model. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 82% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Improved -5 -> -4: Q2 GDP grew 4.43%, the fastest in five years, led by manufacturing, agriculture and services with the oil sector boosted by the Iran-war crude price spike (Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Sept 2). Booked as one step because the oil component is a windfall from someone else's war and is not structural.

Monetary Independence - A reform-era central bank rebuilding credibility after the 2023 float, holding an orthodox stance from an intervention-heavy base. (CBN; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The naira is a non-reserve floating currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Headline inflation eased to 15.91% in June (from 15.93% in May), the first decline in three months, with the naira broadly stable through June despite Middle-East oil volatility and the CBN's 306th MPC (July 20-21) expected to hold at 26.50% (Bloomberg - independent; Daily Post, BusinessDay - domestic). Marginal disinflation + FX stability, still far above target: improved -4 -> -3; confidence held.

Banking Stability - A major recapitalisation concluded in early 2026 lifting liquidity, against heavy oil-and-gas loan exposure. (CBN)

Trade Actions Capacity - Improved -3 -> -2: Nigeria rejoined FTSE Russell's Frontier Indexes on Aug 27 effective Sept 21, three years after being deleted at zero weighting (Forbes). Index readmission is an externally-administered verdict on market access and capital-controls normalization.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.22 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -1.22 │ 73% │

│ long │ -1.22 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An improving statistics agency and a vibrant press, against entrenched corruption and weak delivery. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 72% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 68% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Entrenched corruption, slow courts, and impunity. (WJP 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - The statistics agency rebased GDP and CPI - credible and improving, but capacity-limited. (NBS; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-ridden, with weak delivery. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - A vibrant but harassed press, with cybercrime-law prosecutions and a dangerous environment for journalists. (RSF; HRW 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.02 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -3.02 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.02 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A potential demographic dividend, against reform-hardship strain, deep cleavages, and limited belonging. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 68% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2023-elected government pushing painful reforms amid hardship protests; democratic but strained, with a 2027 election ahead. (Africanews; Guardian NG)

Civil Liberties - Formal freedoms undercut by crackdowns and a police-brutality legacy. (V-Dem; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited routes; not a relocation-destination regime. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Held at -6: armed men on motorcycles killed 20-24 farmers in Sauna district, Zamfara July 21 (Reuters, Al Jazeera - wire, resident-sourced tolls) and 20+ IDPs were abducted in Sokoto; security-force claims of 40+ bandits killed in Katsina July 27 and 79 'neutralised' in Q2 are army/military-PR body counts - excluded, direction only (Daily Post; PRNigeria - military-adjacent). The established rural-violence pattern continuing at its scored severity; confidence held.

Demographics - A huge, fast-growing young population - a jobs/Malthusian strain now, a potential dividend later. (World Bank; NBS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.21 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -3.06 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.90 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned regional power, dominated by severe internal insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 68% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Worsened -2 -> -3: the US confirmed withdrawal of roughly 200 troops from Nigeria on Aug 28, with the Nigerian military characterizing it as a routine mission adjustment (five or more independent Nigerian outlets plus AP). The counterterror partnership is thinning at the same moment mass abductions are escalating.

Conflict Involvement - Mixed window: troops repelled an ISWAP infiltration at Cross Kauwa, Borno on July 11 (military-sourced; the claim of Palestinian/Moroccan 'foreign facilitators' is uncorroborated self-report, flagged), while all 44 Oyo State pupils/teachers abducted in May were rescued alive July 10 after 56 days with no ransom paid per Tinubu (Premium Times, Punch, allAfrica - domestic independent). Held at -7; confidence held.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An FX-control legacy easing post-float; not sanctioned, with reserves at a multi-year high. (CBN; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.57 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -3.57 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.57 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A power and infrastructure crisis, weak healthcare, high crime, and severe flood exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 82% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Lagos/delta coastal-flood plus sea-level, northern desertification, a vast exposed population, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Weak, with low public spend, high out-of-pocket costs, and heavy doctor emigration. (Punch; Vanguard)

Infrastructure - A chronic power-supply crisis (repeated grid collapses) and poor roads - a major drag. (ICIR; Vanguard)

Crime Safety - Worsened -7 -> -8: roughly 600 worshippers were abducted from mosques around Dekera village in Niger State with about 30 killed, and Tinubu ordered a rescue operation on Aug 25 (Al Jazeera, Aug 26). VERIFIED as a genuine, distinct 2026 event in north-central Nigeria and specifically NOT the recirculated 2025 Katsina mosque attack that was flagged as a trap for this region. A mass abduction on this scale from places of worship is a step change in the reach of armed groups.

Disaster Insurance - Very low insurance penetration against high flood/disaster exposure. (industry)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.96 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -6.05 │ 71% │

│ long │ -6.15 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.21 │ 70% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.67 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.01 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.27 │ -3.24 │ -3.21 │

│ Assets │ -2.67 │ -2.67 │ -2.66 │

│ Currency │ -2.01 │ -2.0 │ -1.99 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘