- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV, OECD, World Justice Project, RSF, Transparency International, EU Commission) + Dutch official stats (CBS, DNB) + Dutch press/legal sources (NOvA, NL Times, Free Press Unlimited).

- Source-lean: political and crime detail leaned on English-language outlets; balanced with native Dutch legal/press; deeper NRC/de Volkskrant/NOS reads would further de-skew political_stability and civil_liberties.

- Peak political instability (the June 2025 PVV-triggered cabinet collapse) resolved via the Oct 2025 election; a centrist D66-VVD-CDA minority cabinet was sworn in Feb 2026.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A very strong, low-debt fiscal position within the eurozone, sound banks, and a trade-hub economy; near-term energy-shock inflation the main wobble. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +5.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 72% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~43% GDP, deficit structurally below 3% through 2030; strong now, with ~4% of GDP of age/health/climate spending pressure building by 2050. (IMF Art IV 2026, OECD)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national monetary control. (ECB, DNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - 2025 CPI ~3.3%, HICP ~2.5-2.8% spring 2026 but projected up on energy; running above the euro-area average on tight labor/wages. (CBS, EC)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalized majors (ING, Rabobank, ABN AMRO); solid DNB supervision; high household mortgage debt the structural watch-item. (DNB, IMF FSAP)

Trade Actions Capacity - Rotterdam is Europe's #1 container hub, but 2025 throughput slipped and exports lagged on weak EU competitiveness; Groningen gas permanently shut (now an LNG/pipeline importer); stable policy, no resource curse. (Port of Rotterdam, CBS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.37 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +3.34 │ 81% │

│ long │ +3.31 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent baseline (uncompromised statistics, top-tier press freedom), with a mild rule-of-law erosion trend flagged by domestic and EU bodies. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +4.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP #9/143, but the EU 2025 Rule of Law Report and the Dutch bar (NOvA) flag judicial-appointment/prosecution-autonomy concerns and asylum-emergency laws straining constitutional norms. (WJP, EU Commission, advocatenorde.nl)

Statistical Integrity - CBS is independent, uncompromised, and high-quality. (CBS, Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Professional and capable; nitrogen/housing permitting paralysis exposes delivery-capacity strain. (OECD 2025)

Press Freedom - RSF #2 globally (2026); caveat: rising journalist threats and SLAPPs. (RSF, Free Press Unlimited)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.81 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +5.65 │ 80% │

│ long │ +5.50 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning (if fragmented, minority) government after migration-driven instability, with a tightening migration climate, social polarization, and a housing-strained ageing population. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Two cabinets collapsed over migration (2023, June 2025), but the Oct 2025 election and a Feb 2026 D66-VVD-CDA cabinet restored a functioning (if minority, 66/150) government; fragmentation persists. (CBS, NL Times)

Civil Liberties - Strong baseline; recent asylum/migration restrictions test equal-treatment norms. (Amnesty NL, NOvA)

Treatment Non Citizens - The Dutch-American Friendship Treaty (DAFT) gives US citizens a uniquely easy lawful route (~EUR 4,500 business setup), alongside the highly-skilled-migrant scheme and EU Blue Card. But the 30% expat tax ruling was cut, asylum/migration rules hardened, and naturalization may move 5->10 years; the skilled/DAFT path stays open while the overall climate tightens. (gov.nl, Dentons)

Social Cohesion - Sharp migration polarization and nitrogen/farmer protests (a court ordered enforced cuts with penalty risk); a high baseline of trust cushions it. (CBS)

Demographics - Population ~18.1M but deaths now exceed births; growth is entirely migration-driven; over-65s outnumber under-20s; a ~450k housing shortage worsens it. (CBS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.98 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.09 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.20 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU core member; tail exposure via Russian hybrid/cyber activity and as an organized-crime logistics vector. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - NATO/EU core; hosted the June 2025 Hague Summit and committed to 5% (3.5%+1.5%) by 2035. (NATO, gov.nl)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, but Russian hybrid/cyber pressure and Rotterdam/Schiphol as a cocaine/organized-crime vector; tail exposure as a NATO member. (NATO, OC Index)

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; no domestic capital controls; free capital mobility. (EU, DNB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.35 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +2.35 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.35 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier healthcare and infrastructure and world-class water management, against severe structural sea-level exposure held back by exceptional defenses. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Best-in-world flood engineering and top readiness offset extreme sea-level/subsidence near-term; AMOC-slowdown plus accelerating SLR are the long-term tail. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AMOC/SLR)

Healthcare - Universal mandatory-insurance system; very low unmet need; top-decile outcomes at ~10% of GDP. (OECD Health at a Glance 2025)

Infrastructure - Top-tier ports, rail, broadband, cycling; watch-items are electricity-grid congestion and housing. (OECD, CBS)

Crime Safety - Homicide ~0.7/100k and violent crime down over 2010-2024, though the long decline stalled post-2018 and organized-crime violence is concentrated. (CBS, OC Index)

Disaster Insurance - Strong response capacity; a known flood-insurance gap (heavy reliance on state defenses, limited private flood cover). (DNB, EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.90 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +3.72 │ 77% │

│ long │ +3.54 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.48 │ 77% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.61 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.60 │ 80% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.59 │ +3.54 │ +3.48 │

│ Assets │ +3.67 │ +3.61 │ +3.55 │

│ Currency │ +3.60 │ +3.56 │ +3.51 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘