- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/ECF, World Bank, ADB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Nepali official (Nepal Rastra Bank, NSO) + Nepali independent English press (Kathmandu Post, Nepali Times, Online Khabar).

- A young federal democracy marked by chronic government churn and recurring 2024-25 instability and protests; the rupee is pegged to the Indian rupee, so monetary policy is effectively imported.

- Standout drags: chronic political instability, severe Himalayan climate/seismic exposure, a weak narrow economy, and landlocked India-dependence; a relatively free press and hydropower upside offset. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A remittance-cushioned but narrow economy with policy imported via the Indian-rupee peg. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened -3 -> -5: reconstruction after a disaster larger than the 2015 earthquake lands on a fiscal position already scored negative, and Nepal has limited domestic borrowing capacity to absorb it.

Monetary Independence - The rupee is pegged to the Indian rupee, so policy is effectively imported - very low autonomy. (NRB; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Notably low and contained, India-linked. (NRB; IMF)

Banking Stability - Mixed - rising NPLs and excess liquidity with weak credit demand; post-stress fragility. (IMF 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - A huge structural trade deficit and a narrow base (agriculture, tourism), remittance-dependent, with hydropower exports to India a real long-term upside. (NRB; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.98 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -2.98 │ 75% │

│ long │ -2.98 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A weak, corruption-dogged rule of law and capacity, with a relatively free press the bright spot. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak - low TI standing, slow politicised courts, and entrenched corruption. (TI CPI 2025; WJP)

Statistical Integrity - Usable but capacity-limited. (IMF; NSO)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and politicised, strained by an incomplete federal transition and chronic capital-spending under-execution. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Relatively free and vibrant (RSF ~87th, the region's best), with logged violations. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.98 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -2.91 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.84 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic instability and deep social cleavages, with generally free liberties. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened near -5 -> -6: disaster response at this scale is the sharpest test a government faces, and Nepal's was already scored fragile. Long held -2, since the political cycle is not itself altered by the flood.

Civil Liberties - Generally free formal freedoms, with a 2025 social-media-crackdown blemish since reversed. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited - a labor-exporter (remittances ~25% of GDP), not a relocation destination. (NRB; World Bank)

Social Cohesion - Caste/Dalit, ethnic, and Madhesi-plains-versus-hills cleavages with federal tensions. (Carnegie; ConstitutionNet)

Demographics - A young population but with heavy youth out-migration draining the workforce. (UNFPA; NRB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.03 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -2.44 │ 73% │

│ long │ -1.85 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A small state between India and China, India-dependent and landlocked. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Squeezed between India and China, non-aligned and India-dependent. (ORF)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict post-civil-war, with landlocked India-dependence the key vulnerability. (general)

Sanctions Capital Controls - A managed/largely-closed capital account, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.25 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +0.25 │ 70% │

│ long │ +0.25 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Severe Himalayan climate and seismic exposure, weak healthcare and infrastructure, with low crime a strength. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 88% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Worsened near -4 -> -7 and long -6 -> -8: a glacier collapse triggered a catastrophic flash flood on the Nepal-Tibet border from Aug 26, with the toll climbing through the window to 1,252 by Sept 3 and peak reported missing near 4,875, surpassing the death toll of the 2015 earthquake. A barrier lake continued to threaten further release at window close and China warned of additional glacier instability. Corroborated across CNN, AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, CBS, The Hindu and NYT; this is the single best-attested event of the pass. Glacier-collapse flooding is the direct physical mechanism of Himalayan warming, so the long horizon moves further than the near.

Healthcare - Worsened -4 -> -6: a mass-casualty disaster with over a thousand dead and thousands missing overwhelms a health system already scored weak, with the search-and-rescue phase still active at window close.

Infrastructure - Worsened -4 -> -7: a flood of this scale across a mountain river system destroys road, bridge and hydropower assets that Nepal cannot quickly rebuild, and the barrier-lake threat kept downstream infrastructure at risk through window close.

Crime Safety - Relatively low violent crime - a genuine strength. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Worsened -8 -> -9: an uninsured catastrophe of this magnitude in a low-income mountain economy leaves reconstruction dependent almost entirely on external financing and remittances.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.69 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -5.80 │ 74% │

│ long │ -5.90 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.88 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.73 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.52 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.26 │ -3.07 │ -2.88 │

│ Assets │ -2.79 │ -2.73 │ -2.66 │

│ Currency │ -2.52 │ -2.48 │ -2.43 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘