- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, WHO, HRW, UNSW Kaldor Centre, Lowy, RSF) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Extremely data-thin (~12,000 population); many factors are low-confidence inference. Uses the Australian dollar.

- The world's smallest republic - a phosphate boom-and-bust left ~80% of the island mined-out and a squandered sovereign fund; now survives on rents from hosting Australia's offshore asylum/deportee processing plus fishing licenses.

- Standout drags: near-total dependence on Australian rents (a new 30-year A$2.5bn deportee deal), documented harm to asylum seekers, a transactional 2024 China pivot + 'golden passport' scheme, and among the world's worst diabetes/obesity profiles.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

An economy with essentially no productive base, surviving on Australian rents and using the Australian dollar. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Improved on the late-2024 Australia treaty plus an RPC revival - public debt ~15% of GDP, moderate distress risk, but utterly dependent on Australian rents. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Uses the Australian dollar - no monetary autonomy. (definitional)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No own currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Elevated for the AUD bloc (~6%+ FY2025 moderating to ~4.5%) on import/supply factors. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Historically had no commercial bank for years - thin, fragile financial access with a high SOE subsidy burden. (IMF; inference)

Trade Actions Capacity - Effectively no productive export base post-phosphate - income is asylum-centre rent, fishing fees, passport sales, and aid. (IMF; Lowy)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.15 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -2.15 │ 66% │

│ long │ -2.15 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A history of judicial interference and opposition crackdowns, with no independent media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A history of judicial interference, opposition crackdowns, and a magistrate/judge expulsion episode, with corruption concerns around the deportee deal. (Lowy; inference)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged but minimal-capacity, with opaque public-finance reporting. (IMF; inference)

Civil Service Capacity - A tiny administration heavily Australia/donor-supported, with large SOE distortions. (IMF; inference)

Press Freedom - RSF excludes Nauru as having no independent media; a history of restrictive measures (prohibitive media-visa fees, social-media bans). (RSF; inference)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.09 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -2.09 │ 52% │

│ long │ -2.09 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Historically volatile politics with a documented decade of harm to asylum seekers and a severe NCD crisis. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Historically volatile (frequent leadership turnover, past constitutional crises); President Adeang in office since Oct 2023, currently a stable patch. (Al Jazeera; inference)

Civil Liberties - Restrictions on press and protest historically; broadly tolerated personal life but weak political-expression space. (RSF; inference)

Treatment Non Citizens - A decade-plus of documented harm/medical neglect of asylum seekers in the RPC; the new deportee deal strips procedural fairness. (HRW; UNSW Kaldor Centre; RNZ)

Social Cohesion - A small homogeneous Nauruan society, but an acute public-health crisis and a 'two-tier' dynamic around the detained/deportee population. (inference)

Demographics - Among the world's worst NCD profiles - diabetes ~21.8%, obesity >60%, life expectancy ~62 - a severe human-capital drag. (Global Obesity Observatory; WHO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.85 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -2.85 │ 55% │

│ long │ -2.85 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Transactional - pivoted to China for aid while giving Australia an effective security veto. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Transactional - pivoted to China (Jan 2024) for aid yet simultaneously gave Australia an effective veto over security/infrastructure deals. (Washington Post; Lowy)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict; a small contested piece in Pacific great-power competition. (inference)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions, but the golden-passport program and a past offshore-banking history create AML/integrity and reputational risk. (ANU; Henley; inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.99 │ 52% │

│ mid │ +0.99 │ 52% │

│ long │ +0.99 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A mined-out interior forcing coastal living, with an overwhelming NCD epidemic. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A raised-coral island (less SLR inundation) but a phosphate-mined, near-uninhabitable interior, water/heat stress, near-total import dependence. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Overwhelmed by an NCD epidemic (diabetes/CVD/renal) - ~75-80% of deaths from NCDs - with heavy overseas-referral reliance. (WHO; Global Nutrition Report)

Infrastructure - A single small island, donor/Australia-dependent, with degraded land and fragile power/water. (IMF; inference)

Crime Safety - A low baseline violent crime among Nauruans; the security flashpoints have centred on the detention population. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Drought/climate exposure plus environmental degradation, with negligible insurance; relies on Australian transfers. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.95 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -4.19 │ 57% │

│ long │ -4.44 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.54 │ 56% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.98 │ 58% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.77 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.47 │ -2.51 │ -2.54 │

│ Assets │ -1.96 │ -1.98 │ -2.01 │

│ Currency │ -1.77 │ -1.77 │ -1.77 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘