- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI) + NZ official (Stats NZ, RBNZ, Te Whatu Ora) + NZ independent press (RNZ, NZ Herald, Newsroom).

- Source-lean: HIGH Anglophone (NZ is natively English-language); cross-checked via multilateral indices rather than press tone.

- Standout drags: youth emigration / ageing demographics and seismic-plus-climate disaster exposure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A credible, pioneering inflation-targeting central bank and open trade, against a recent recession and high household/housing debt. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Moderate debt with a recent primary deficit (~2.4% GDP) and slow consolidation; 2024 contraction rebounding to ~2-3% growth. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The RBNZ is a genuinely independent inflation-targeting pioneer, cutting on its own read with no political pressure. (RBNZ)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The NZD is a free-floating own currency but not a reserve currency; neutral. (RBNZ)

Inflation - Back in the 1-3% band (~3.1% end-2025) with a near-term oil-driven spike forecast before re-settling. (RBNZ)

Banking Stability - Four Australian-owned majors (~84% of lending), well-capitalised and stress-test-resilient; high household/housing-debt concentration the offset. (RBNZ FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Stable open-trade policy and strong agri/dairy exports, no resource curse; heavy China-market concentration the main risk. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.73 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +0.79 │ 77% │

│ long │ +0.85 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class rule of law and statistics; press freedom threatened by a collapsing commercial-media market, not the state. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Among the strongest (WJP 5/143); an independent judiciary; a minor erosion narrative but world-class. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Stats NZ is independent and credible, with no interference. (Stats NZ)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable Westminster bureaucracy, but coalition-era spending restraint and public-sector cuts strain delivery. (RNZ)

Press Freedom - RSF 16/180 (2025), strong, but structurally threatened by a collapsing commercial media market (closures, layoffs). (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.38 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +4.38 │ 76% │

│ long │ +4.38 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable MMP democracy with a lawful, selective migration system; the long-term drag is youth emigration and ageing. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A National-led coalition stable since 2023; a peaceful, functional MMP democracy. (RNZ)

Civil Liberties - Strong protections and a robust right to protest (a large Treaty hikoi proceeded freely). (WJP)

Treatment Non Citizens - A lawful, durable, selective skilled-migrant system; the April 2025 Active Investor Plus relaxation widened openness for the wealthy. Open but tiered. (Immigration NZ)

Social Cohesion - The Treaty Principles Bill was defeated (Apr 2025) after record submissions/protests - institutions absorbed the strain, but Crown-Maori tension and immigration debate persist. (Justice Committee)

Demographics - Ageing plus record citizen departures (mostly young, to Australia) with net migration collapsing. (Stats NZ; OECD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.13 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.03 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.92 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Geographically isolated and peaceful; a Five Eyes member hedging the US-China relationship. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A Five Eyes member tilting toward the US/AUKUS Pillar 2 while keeping the popular nuclear-free policy; reliable but hedging China. (Chatham House)

Conflict Involvement - Geographically isolated, no active conflicts (Global Peace Index 3rd). (GPI)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Follows Western sanctions, not a target; no capital controls; a free-floating NZD. (RBNZ)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.14 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +3.14 │ 73% │

│ long │ +3.14 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very low crime, against a strained public-health system, an infrastructure deficit, and seismic/storm exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Temperate, resilient, high-readiness, but rising coastal-flood/managed-retreat costs and 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle signal worsening exposure. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A universal system under acute strain: a large planned-care waitlist and some declined referrals; health spend below peers. (Te Whatu Ora; OAG)

Infrastructure - An acknowledged infrastructure deficit (hospital beds/theatres as constraints); adequate but underinvested. (Te Whatu Ora)

Crime Safety - Very low violent crime, with homicide roughly halved and ram-raids sharply down (GPI 3rd). (NZ Police)

Disaster Insurance - A functional Natural Hazards Commission with record reinsurance, but rising premiums, flood-zone insurance retreat, and an unresolved managed-retreat funding debate. (Natural Hazards Commission)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.30 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +0.08 │ 71% │

│ long │ -0.13 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.39 │ 75% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.09 │ 75% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.87 │ 76% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.50 │ +2.45 │ +2.39 │

│ Assets │ +2.10 │ +2.09 │ +2.08 │

│ Currency │ +1.87 │ +1.91 │ +1.94 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘