- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV, World Bank, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, TI, Arab Center/MEI); Omani state media EXCLUDED there, with economic figures admitted only via IMF/rating-agency validation.

- A genuine fiscal-consolidation success (deficits to surplus, debt cut sharply, an investment-grade upgrade) and a trusted neutral-mediator diplomacy.

- Standout features: fiscal repair, regional diplomacy, and very low crime, against an absolute-monarchy rights ceiling, restricted press, and extreme heat/water and cyclone exposure.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A genuine fiscal-repair success and a credible diversification push, with a USD peg the autonomy trade-off. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +3.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -0.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Oil-revenue budget squeezed by the export disruption. (IMF)

Monetary Independence - A hard USD peg means essentially no independent monetary policy - stable but no tool. (IMF Art IV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Peg-delivered credibility; the rial is not internationally held. (IMF)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~1%). (IMF Art IV)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised per the IMF. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil exports and the Sohar/transit economy depend on Hormuz traffic that has nearly stopped. (Reuters; EIA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.58 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.44 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.31 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Low corruption and capable administration, against no political-sphere judicial independence and restricted press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An absolute sultanate with no judicial independence on political matters, but low corruption and functional commercial law. (TI CPI 2025; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Economic data is IMF-validated. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable administration with an effective Omanization push. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - RSF ~127th, with a media law granting broad censorship powers. (RSF 2026; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.27 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -0.27 │ 59% │

│ long │ -0.27 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, well-regarded sultanate, against no political rights and a migrant-majority workforce. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +3.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable, well-regarded sultanate (a smooth 2020 succession); managed stability, with longer-term diversification/jobs strain. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - No parties and criminalised criticism, with citizenship-revocation for critics. (Freedom House 2025; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Easy entry and no income tax draw a large migrant workforce (~43% of the population), but under kafala-legacy controls with no real citizenship path. (HRW; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - Orderly, cohesive, and low-crime, with a large transient migrant component. (analyst; Freedom House)

Demographics - A young-ish citizen base creating labour supply but Omanization pressure. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ 0.0 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.45 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A trusted neutral mediator with an open account, against Yemen-border/Hormuz exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 72% │ -6.0 │ -4.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A trusted neutral mediator (a US-Iran venue, Yemen talks), Western-friendly and low-drama - a genuine strength. (Arab Center; MEI)

Conflict Involvement - Held at near -6: Oman is now the war's diplomatic center (Araghchi-Albusaidi Tehran meeting Aug 25 finalizing corridor coordinates and a joint statement) while its waters host the risk it is mediating away (Aug 25 tanker struck by a projectile off the Omani coast, RFE/RL shipping-monitor + AP). Mediator standing is a hedge, not immunity; no strike ON Oman in-window.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open, unsanctioned, with free capital flows. (IMF Art IV)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +2.08 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.60 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good healthcare and very low crime, against extreme heat, water scarcity, and cyclone exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -5.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme heat, intensifying Arabian-Sea cyclones, water scarcity, near-unliveable wet-bulb risk offset by wealth/AC. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - Well-developed, with good outcomes and coverage. (WHO/World Bank consensus)

Infrastructure - Desalination-reliant and exposed to the regional water-infrastructure threat, though less central a target than the inner-Gulf states. (CSIS)

Crime Safety - Very low crime - a clear strength. (advisory consensus)

Disaster Insurance - High cyclone/flood exposure against low insurance penetration. (Carnegie; IEA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.36 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +1.26 │ 59% │

│ long │ +1.15 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.42 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.95 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.55 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.41 │ +0.41 │ +0.42 │

│ Assets │ +0.58 │ +0.95 │ +1.32 │

│ Currency │ +0.55 │ +1.13 │ +1.71 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘