- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, OECD, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Peruvian official (INEI, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru) + Peruvian/Spanish-language press (El Comercio, La Republica, IDL-Reporteros).

- A genuinely two-sided profile: a credible, institutionally-anchored macro core sits against chronic political dysfunction (a revolving door of presidents) and a deteriorating security environment.

- Standout drags: chronic political instability, weak rule of law, and a sharp crime wave; standout strengths: a standout-credible central bank, low debt, low inflation, and an open economy. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone; Spanish investigative reporting under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A standout-credible central bank, low debt, and low inflation - a genuine macro bright spot despite political chaos. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low public debt (~33% GDP), a prudent fiscal tradition, and investment grade - a genuine strength, with some fiscal-rule slippage and unfunded congressional bills flagged. (IMF Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An autonomous, highly credible central bank with neutral-rate discipline - a standout strength. (BCRP; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The sol is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Long-anchored in the 1-3% target band, with transitory 2026 supply shocks fading. (BCRP)

Banking Stability - Sound, well-regulated, and well-capitalised, with declining dollarisation. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - World-leading copper plus gold/zinc, with recurrent mining-corridor social conflict; a paradox of plenty partly buffered by macro institutions. (company filings; HRW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.52 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +4.52 │ 75% │

│ long │ +4.52 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics, against chronic corruption, weak capacity, and a declining press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The electoral authority (JNE) completed an extremely close, weeks-long contested count and proclamation without an institutional breakdown - a functioning-institution signal in a chronically unstable polity (independent Peruvian press). Improved -4 -> -3; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - The statistics agency and central bank are credible and trusted - a relative strength. (IMF; BCRP)

Civil Service Capacity - Unstable, politicised, with low delivery capacity. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Sharply declining (RSF ~130th), a 2025 'gag law', journalist murders, and judicial harassment. (RSF 2025/2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.22 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -1.22 │ 70% │

│ long │ -1.22 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic political dysfunction and deep social cleavages, against lawful migration handling. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at -4: the ~July 28 transfer of power from interim president Balcazar completed on schedule as booked 07-30; the elected successor's identity and first-weeks record could not be verified this cycle (sweep gap, flagged for next pass) - a mechanical hold, not an all-clear. The month-long first-round certification delay (results announced May 17 for an April vote) stands as the window's inherited electoral-administration flag.

Civil Liberties - Watch item: Sanchez-aligned mobilizations are planned for late July around the July 28 handover, keeping near-term protest/response risk open (La Republica - independent). Held at -3; confidence held pending whether the transition stays peaceful.

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful routes that absorbed ~1.6M Venezuelans, against rising xenophobia and a 2025 border state of emergency. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Deep Lima-versus-interior, ethnic, and class cleavages, with the 2022-23 unrest legacy. (V-Dem)

Demographics - Young-ish, with fertility slowing toward replacement - a modest tailwind. (INEI; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.96 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -1.96 │ 74% │

│ long │ -1.96 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic, very open economy, against residual internal narco-violence. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A pragmatic, open economy trading with both the US and China (a new China-built mega-port); non-aligned. (Americas Quarterly)

Conflict Involvement - No external war, with residual narco-violence in a remote valley and an organized-crime expansion. (HRW)

Sanctions Capital Controls - A very open capital account, unsanctioned - a long-standing strength. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.68 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +1.68 │ 71% │

│ long │ +1.68 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Seismic and climate exposure, a weak health system, and a sharply deteriorating crime environment. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Tropical-glacier loss (the largest share globally) plus Lima water plus strong-ENSO flooding, low readiness. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A weak, uneven public system with a catastrophic pandemic-mortality legacy. (World Bank; WHO)

Infrastructure - Improving (a new port, a metro) but uneven, with large rural gaps. (OECD)

Crime Safety - A sharp deterioration - surging extortion and organized crime, with serial states of emergency. (HRW; Atlantic Council)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against high seismic/flood exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.98 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -4.19 │ 71% │

│ long │ -4.40 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.88 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.21 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.68 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.81 │ -0.84 │ -0.88 │

│ Assets │ +1.23 │ +1.21 │ +1.19 │

│ Currency │ +2.68 │ +2.68 │ +2.68 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘