- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, US GAO/CRS, Freedom House, Lowy) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Tiny (~18k population) and data-thin; press not separately RSF-ranked. Fully dollarized (uses the US dollar).

- A 'Free' democracy (President Whipps Jr. re-elected Nov 2024), staunchly pro-US and one of Taiwan's ~12 remaining diplomatic allies, hosting the US TACMOR over-the-horizon radar.

- Standout features: a Free democracy, strong fiscal recovery (debt ~56% of GDP), and the renewed ~$890m COFA, against a fat negative tail of Chinese 'grey-zone' coercion, tourism mono-dependence, and reef/climate exposure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A strong fiscal recovery and low inflation, against extreme tourism mono-dependence; fully dollarized. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt fell to ~56% of GDP (FY25), a primary surplus ~2.9%, net financial worth ~80% of GDP, all CRA-23-supported. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Fully dollarized - no monetary policy. (definitional/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the USD, issues none. (definitional)

Inflation - Fell to ~0.2% (FY25) on lower commodity/utility costs - imported from the US. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Tiny and USD-based with no central bank/lender of last resort; correspondent-banking de-risking is the structural fragility. (IMF; inference)

Trade Actions Capacity - Extreme tourism mono-dependence (high-end diving) externally weaponized by China, with a minimal export base. (IMF; VOA/Al Jazeera 2024)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.56 │ 79% │

│ mid │ -0.56 │ 79% │

│ long │ -0.56 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An independent judiciary and Free rating, with thin small-state capacity. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An independent judiciary, regular peaceful transfers, 'Free'; small-state patronage/capacity limits temper it. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - IMF Art IV produced, but data are thin/lagged, typical micro-state gaps. (IMF 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Thin administrative depth and labor shortages; COFA-implementation delays expose limits. (GAO; IMF)

Press Freedom - Freedom House calls media independent; not separately RSF-ranked, with PRC disinformation flagged around the 2024 election. (FH 2025; IPDF)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.13 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +1.13 │ 59% │

│ long │ +1.13 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with a decisive 2024 re-election, eroded only at the margin by emigration. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy with a decisive 2024 re-election and durable institutions. (FH 2025; Al Jazeera)

Civil Liberties - Generally upheld (CL 55/60), with minor small-society constraints. (FH 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A significant foreign-worker share (Filipino/Bangladeshi), generally orderly with limited monitoring. (inference; State Dept)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive, homogeneous society, with outmigration pressure the main strain. (inference)

Demographics - Tiny (~18k), aging, with persistent emigration to the US under COFA. (IMF; GAO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.38 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +2.38 │ 64% │

│ long │ +2.38 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Deep US/Taiwan alignment, but a frontline of US-China competition facing PRC grey-zone coercion. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +4.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Deep US treaty/defense alignment plus Taiwan ties; near-term dinged by US COFA-funding delays denting the 'reliable partner' credibility. (GAO; RNZ; Diplomat)

Conflict Involvement - Not at war, but a frontline of US-China competition - hosts US radar, faces PRC grey-zone coercion/incursions, first-island-chain exposure. (Naval News 2025; IPDF)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open, dollarized, and unsanctioned; de-risking is the real friction. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.55 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +0.94 │ 62% │

│ long │ +1.32 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very low crime and functional core infrastructure, against acute reef/climate exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - High islands aid resilience, but a reef-dependent economy, coral bleaching, SLR, and typhoon exposure. (WB Pacific CCDR)

Healthcare - Basic local care with serious cases referred off-island (Guam/Philippines/Taiwan/Hawaii). (inference; State Dept)

Infrastructure - A functional core but thin/aid-financed, with construction delays from COFA-fund timing. (IMF; GAO)

Crime Safety - Low crime and very safe, with minor transnational/drug-transit concerns. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - A thin commercial market against high climate/typhoon exposure, reliant on a donor/US backstop. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.07 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.30 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.54 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.83 │ 64% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.22 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.01 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.85 │ +0.84 │ +0.83 │

│ Assets │ +0.19 │ +0.22 │ +0.25 │

│ Currency │ -0.01 │ +0.04 │ +0.09 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘