- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, WHO, Freedom House, RSF, TI, Lowy) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Resource-rich but governance-poor 'paradox of plenty' - LNG/gold/copper wealth coexists with a CPI of 26/100 and chronic FX shortages now easing under an IMF-backed crawl.

- Standout drags: extreme security/human-development failure (the Jan 2024 'Black Wednesday' riots, the Feb 2024 Enga massacre, among the world's worst crime rates, a 2025 polio outbreak), against an IMF reform anchor and Western security alignment.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed (declining) - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Official data is compromised, but a free press and courts still surface the truth. Scores lean on those independent channels, and the state is sliding toward opacity - the confidence here is capped and falling.

An IMF-anchored consolidation and easing FX rationing, against a resource-curse base. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit narrowed to ~2.4% of GDP (2025) targeting balance by 2027 under an IMF ECF/EFF program; debt elevated but on a consolidation path. (IMF 2025-26)

Monetary Independence - Central-bank governance strengthened under the IMF program and the kina shifted to a crawl-like arrangement, easing FX rationing, with credibility still rebuilding. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The kina is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and managed (~0.6% in 2024, rebounding to ~3.8% in 2025). (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Dominated by BSP Financial Group - broadly stable but shallow and concentrated, historically FX-constrained. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A large extractive base (LNG, gold, copper; Porgera restart, pending Papua LNG/P'nyang) but a textbook resource curse where revenue rarely reaches the broad economy. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.09 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -0.14 │ 71% │

│ long │ -0.18 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An independent-but-weakly-enforced judiciary, systemic corruption, thin data, and a deteriorating press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The judiciary retains some independence but enforcement is weak and corruption systemic, with CPI at 26/100 (142nd). (Freedom House 2025; TI 2024)

Statistical Integrity - Weak data systems - even health/crime figures are acknowledged undercounts. (WHO PNG 2025; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Limited administrative reach and patronage-prone - the Black Wednesday trigger (a payroll error cutting police pay) exposed core failures. (Freedom House 2025)

Press Freedom - Mostly free media but a sharply falling RSF rank and a proposed media law would let authorities sanction journalists. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.30 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -3.30 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.30 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Electoral democracy with unstable coalitions, severe and worsening communal violence, and a youth bulge. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened -2 -> -3: the Bougainville independence referendum result was tabled in the national parliament on Aug 27 (RNZ Pacific, an independent public broadcaster). Moving a secession question from a completed referendum into the national legislature converts a deferred dispute into an active constitutional one, whichever way it resolves.

Civil Liberties - Broadly free speech/assembly/religion, but recurring states of emergency and weak due process. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic exit-ban regime, but high crime makes foreigners targets and administration is weak. (DFAT; inference)

Social Cohesion - Severe and worsening - the Jan 2024 riots (22+ dead) plus escalating highlands tribal warfare (the Feb 2024 Enga massacre ~44+). (Al Jazeera; Time; BenarNews)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a potential dividend but currently a jobs/services burden fuelling urban crime. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.95 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -2.09 │ 64% │

│ long │ -2.23 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western-tilted security partner with no interstate conflict and easing capital controls. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Anchored to Australia (a bilateral security treaty) and the US (a 2023 Defense Cooperation Agreement) as the West counters China. (Lowy; CRS)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate conflict; the 'conflict' is internal tribal/communal violence captured under social cohesion. (international press)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned, but FX rationing has functioned as a de-facto capital control for years (now easing under the IMF roadmap). (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.93 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +1.93 │ 69% │

│ long │ +1.93 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the region's weakest health and worst crime, with high natural-hazard exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Carteret Islanders among the first climate-displaced; highland landslides/floods, very low adaptive capacity, high disaster exposure. (IPCC AR6; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Among the region's weakest - a 2025 polio outbreak, high maternal mortality (~171/100k, likely understated), recurrent measles/TB. (WHO PNG; UNICEF)

Infrastructure - Poor roads, an unreliable grid, and limited water/broadband, with much of the highlands road-inaccessible. (World Bank; ADB)

Crime Safety - Among the worst globally - severe violent and gang ('raskol') crime in Port Moresby, Lae, and Mt Hagen. (DFAT 2025; international press)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against seismic, volcanic, and hydrometeorological hazard. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.68 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -6.89 │ 71% │

│ long │ -7.09 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.82 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.44 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.46 │ 69% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.66 │ -2.74 │ -2.82 │

│ Assets │ -1.39 │ -1.44 │ -1.50 │

│ Currency │ -0.46 │ -0.49 │ -0.53 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘