- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, World Bank, IDB, S&P, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, BTI) + Paraguayan official (BCP, MEF, INE) + regional/Spanish-aware press (MercoPress).

- A macro-stability standout (low debt, a credible central bank, low inflation, investment grade) with weak rule of law under decades of one-party dominance.

- Standout features: prudent fiscals, a credible central bank, and a young population, against pervasive corruption, climate/health weakness, and rising narco-border violence. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone; Spanish primary press secondhand.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A genuine macro-stability standout - low debt, a credible central bank, low inflation, and investment grade. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt (~40% GDP), a prudent fiscal tradition, and investment grade attained in 2024. (S&P; MEF)

Monetary Independence - A credible inflation-targeting central bank - a strength. (BCP; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The guarani is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3% and converging to target, with a regionally stable currency. (BCP)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised. (IMF; S&P)

Trade Actions Capacity - A top soy/beef exporter plus ~99% hydropower and some maquila, against commodity/weather dependence and landlocked river-transport reliance. (Trade.gov; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.66 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +3.66 │ 74% │

│ long │ +3.66 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Pervasive corruption and a one-party machine, with usable statistics. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A low TI standing, a one-party machine, weak courts, and US-sanctioned figures. (TI; US State/Treasury)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged. (IMF; BCP)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-heavy and weak. (BTI 2026; Freedom House)

Press Freedom - Formally free but with journalists murdered in narco-border zones and ownership concentration. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.26 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -2.26 │ 69% │

│ long │ -2.26 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Durable but one-party-dominant stability and a young population, against deep inequality. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - An orderly government but with one-party dominance over decades and mild backsliding signals (an NGO law). (Freedom House; BTI)

Civil Liberties - Generally free formal freedoms. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Open, lawful residency, with record applications in 2025. (MercoPress)

Social Cohesion - High inequality, land concentration, and indigenous marginalisation. (World Bank)

Demographics - Young with a favourable dependency ratio - a genuine dividend. (World Bank; INE)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.08 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.08 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.08 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, Western-aligned partner with an open economy, against a small guerrilla remnant. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable pro-US and one of the few Taiwan-recognising states - Western-aligned. (State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No war, with a small guerrilla remnant in the north and narco-transit. (InsightCrime)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open economy with free capital flows, unsanctioned. (State Dept; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.90 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.90 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.90 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Drought/flood and weak public healthcare, with rising narco-border violence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Landlocked but extreme heat plus Parana drought (record-low river) plus Chaco deforestation, low readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A weak, overcrowded public system, with decent affordable private care in the capital. (State Dept)

Infrastructure - Improving urban infrastructure but landlocked and river-transport-dependent. (Trade.gov)

Crime Safety - Rising border/narco-cartel violence, with cities relatively safe. (OC Index; InsightCrime)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration. (inferred)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.50 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -2.60 │ 70% │

│ long │ -2.70 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.16 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.22 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.20 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.19 │ +0.17 │ +0.16 │

│ Assets │ +1.23 │ +1.22 │ +1.21 │

│ Currency │ +2.20 │ +2.20 │ +2.20 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘