- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-08): news pull since the 2026-06-03 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's strait-closure claims via state media treated as regime intent, not verified action). Dominant movers: the June 4-5 AI-equity selloff (Broadcom's weak AI guidance, Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025) and renewed active US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV 2026, World Bank, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, Amnesty, ITUC, CRS/Atlantic Council); Qatari state/state-aligned media (incl. Al Jazeera on Qatar's own governance) EXCLUDED there, with economic figures admitted only via IMF validation.

- Migrant-labor reality: non-citizen workers are ~88-91% of the population under a kafala-legacy system; citizens are a ~10-12% minority. This structurally shapes demographics, cohesion, and rights metrics.

- Standout features: immense fiscal strength, stability, safety, and geopolitical centrality, against an absolute-monarchy rights ceiling and a long-term water/heat tail.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Among the world's strongest fiscal positions and sound banks, with a peg that surrenders monetary autonomy for stability. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ +1.50 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -2.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened near +1 -> -2: Qatar slashed government department budgets by up to 30% and overseas aid by ~85% as the war shrinks the economy (FT, independent, confirms the figures first floated by Iran-aligned outlets), after a Q1 deficit of ~$2.83B on LNG revenues down 23.5% and a first major bond issuance since the Ras Laffan strikes took ~17% of LNG capacity offline for an estimated 3-5 years. Long trimmed 6 -> 5: the sovereign balance sheet remains enormous relative to the shock, but the multi-year capacity hole is now fiscal fact, not scenario.

Monetary Independence - A hard USD peg imports US policy with near-zero autonomy, but the peg plus gas wealth deliver stability. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Peg stability backed by a large sovereign fund; not a reserve issuer. (IMF)

Inflation - Low (~1-2%) and managed. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised (a capital ratio ~20%) with a stable outlook. (IMF; Moody's)

Trade Actions Capacity - Held at near -7 with a first positive signal: Qatar sent its first LNG shipment through Hormuz since the July 7 tanker attack (the Al Areesh entered the Gulf of Oman July 30), after weeks in which loadings continued but visible transits halted (The National - UAE-linked tilt, single source; ADNOC dark-transit reports corroborate the covert-passage pattern via Bloomberg wire). One shipment is direction, not resumption: held; long held 2.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.65 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.89 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.42 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

High wealth-enabled state capacity and functional commercial law, against no political-sphere judicial independence and the absence of independent media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An absolute monarchy with no judicial independence on political matters, but functional commercial law and low corruption. (Freedom House; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - Economic statistics are IMF-validated; political data are opaque. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - High, wealth-enabled state capacity. (IMF)

Press Freedom - Low - no domestic independent media on Qatar's own affairs. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ 0.0 │ 59% │

│ mid │ 0.0 │ 59% │

│ long │ 0.0 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A wealthy, stable monarchy, against no political rights and a migrant-majority, two-tier social structure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +7.0 │ +5.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A wealthy, stable absolute monarchy near-term, with long-term gas-transition and succession caution. (Freedom House; IMF)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Not Free' - no political rights, restricted expression, and same-sex relations criminalised. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Easy employer-sponsored residency and no income tax, but a migrant-majority workforce under kafala-legacy controls with no path to citizenship. (HRW; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - Orderly with very low crime, but a citizen-minority/migrant-majority two-tier structure. (HRW)

Demographics - Migrant-skewed, with a small young citizen base. (UN; HRW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.05 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A well-connected US partner and regional mediator with an open capital account, against regional turbulence exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 78% │ -7.0 │ -5.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Qatar was named (with Egypt and Pakistan) as a lead mediator presenting the 10-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal to Tehran July 20-21, extending its established broker role even after Al Udeid was struck (Axios via news.am, MSN wire - independent). Active diplomatic capital: held at 6; confidence held.

Conflict Involvement - Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base (largest US base in the region) in two further missile waves July 16-17; Qatari air defenses intercepted the barrage but a child was injured by falling interceptor shrapnel in a residential area (CENTCOM - independent-of-Qatar; Doha News - domestic; IRGC damage claims excluded). Repeat direct strikes on the base while Doha co-mediates: held near -7; long held -3; confidence up.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +2.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, healthcare, and safety, against extreme heat and water scarcity long-term. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -5.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +5.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme/near-unliveable wet-bulb heat by mid-century, desal-dependent water, coastal exposure, with very high wealth/AC offset. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - Excellent, modern, and well-funded. (independent)

Infrastructure - Top-tier infrastructure whose desalination system is, per analysts, 'huge, expertly engineered, and highly vulnerable' - and almost all drinking water depends on it. (Circle of Blue; CSIS)

Crime Safety - Very low crime - a clear strength. (independent)

Disaster Insurance - Low natural-catastrophe exposure besides heat and coastal flooding. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.70 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +3.80 │ 60% │

│ long │ +3.90 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.90 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.06 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.15 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.70 │ +0.80 │ +0.90 │

│ Assets │ +0.38 │ +1.06 │ +1.73 │

│ Currency │ -0.15 │ +0.85 │ +1.85 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘