- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, EC, Eurostat, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, NATO) + Romanian official (INS, National Bank of Romania) + Romanian/regional press (Romania-Insider, Recorder, Balkan Insight, OSW).

- Politics: a 2024 presidential election annulled over foreign-interference claims, re-run in 2025 (a centrist beat a far-right candidate), with the pro-EU coalition government toppled in a no-confidence vote on 2026-05-05 - acute turbulence the system absorbed.

- Standout drags: the EU's largest deficit under austerity, stubbornly high inflation, steep demographic decline, war-adjacency, and underinsured seismic risk; strong alliance value and sound banks offset. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A credible central bank and sound banks, against the EU's largest deficit and stubbornly high inflation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The EU's largest deficit (~7.7% GDP) under an excessive-deficit procedure, with a ~5%-of-GDP 2025 consolidation and ratings at risk; debt rising from a low base. (IMF; EC; OSW)

Monetary Independence - The BNR is reasonably credible (rate ~6.5%), tightly floating the leu; FX defence constrains independence. (BNR)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The leu (an EU non-eurozone currency) is not a reserve asset. (definitional)

Inflation - Among the EU's highest (~10.7%), driven by energy liberalisation and VAT, with the central bank revising its forecast up - slow, uncertain disinflation. (BNR; INS)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised with moderate NPLs, though falling profits and sovereign-deficit linkages are flagged. (BNR FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Autos and IT exports, EU-integrated nearshoring, with Black Sea gas (first flow ~2027) ahead and no resource curse; the auto sector softening. (EC; Romania-Insider)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.82 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +1.05 │ 84% │

│ long │ +1.27 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics and a free press, against rule-of-law backsliding pressure and uneven capacity. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Improving from a corruption-heavy base, with functional anti-graft bodies under threat (statute-of-limitations rulings voiding convictions) and a 2025 judiciary scandal; corruption perception stagnant. (EC Rule of Law 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - INS is Eurostat-compliant and credible. (INS; Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Improving but bureaucratic, with uneven EU-fund absorption. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Free and pluralistic (RSF ~49th) but with opaque political financing and ownership pressure. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.06 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +2.37 │ 69% │

│ long │ +2.68 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong liberties and EU/Schengen membership, against acute political turbulence and steep demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2024 presidential election annulled over foreign-interference claims, then re-run in 2025 (a centrist beat a far-right candidate), with the pro-EU coalition government toppled in a no-confidence vote in May 2026 - acute turbulence, though courts and the ballot held. (Atlantic Council; Al Jazeera)

Civil Liberties - Strong, with robust protest and assembly rights. (EC; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - An EU member in full Schengen since 2025 with lawful routes; a net diaspora-outflow country with modest inflows. (EC; INS)

Social Cohesion - A deep anti-establishment/far-right surge, an urban-rural split, and a huge diaspora. (Balkan Insight)

Demographics - A steep decline - emigration plus low fertility, with the population down sharply over decades - a structural long-term drag. (INS; Eurostat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.24 │ 76% │

│ mid │ -0.35 │ 76% │

│ long │ -0.46 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier NATO Black Sea value, squarely offset by frontline-adjacent war exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO Black Sea anchor (hosting a major air base, defence rising toward 3% of GDP) with deep US/EU ties. (NATO; Chatham House)

Conflict Involvement - Frontline-adjacent to the Russia-Ukraine war - repeated drone debris on its territory and Black Sea mine/hybrid risk - a genuine elevated tail. (Atlantic Council; War on the Rocks)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.12 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +3.12 │ 83% │

│ long │ +3.12 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving infrastructure and low violent crime, against an underfunded health system and underinsured seismic risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - SE-Europe heat and intensifying drought on large rain-fed agriculture, plus Danube flood swings, moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Universal but underfunded, with heavy doctor emigration and rural gaps. (OECD Health 2025; WHO)

Infrastructure - EU-fund upgrades (motorways, rail) on an improving trajectory from a historically poor base. (EC; JASPERS)

Crime Safety - Low violent crime, with a major exception in road-fatality rates. (OSAC; EC Road Safety)

Disaster Insurance - A high-seismic capital (the Vrancea zone), with a mandatory catastrophe scheme but low (~20%) uptake - a large protection gap. (PAID; World Bank GFDRR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.57 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.76 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.95 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.0 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.38 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.34 │ 81% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.84 │ +0.92 │ +1.0 │

│ Assets │ +1.24 │ +1.38 │ +1.52 │

│ Currency │ +1.34 │ +1.53 │ +1.72 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘