- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/war rebuilt from independent sources (V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House, HRW + Meduza, Novaya Gazeta Europe, iStories, The Bell, Mediazona + CSIS/ISW/Bank of Finland BOFIT); Russian state media (TASS/RT/RIA/Rossiya-1) and Kremlin/Rosstat governance claims EXCLUDED there.

- Rosstat data is heavily politicised in wartime and treated as low-confidence/disputed; demographic data has been state-classified since 2025. Scores reflect observable actions, not state messaging.

- Standout drags: the aggressor in an ongoing war, a sanctioned war-economy, near-total repression and press control, and a demographic crisis. Overall outcome distribution: negative (fat-tail downside).

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Low headline debt, undercut by a sanctioned war-economy draining its sovereign fund, a fragile banking sector, and a discounted petrostate export model. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 68% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Held at near -5: the ruble's 7.3% monthly slide flatters nominal oil-tax receipts but the volume channels are collapsing (grain >90% offline, refined-product exports constrained by burning refineries), and Putin's own '~1% growth' concession (Aug 19, state claim, direction only) matches the CBR's 0-1% band. Held rather than cut again because the deficit print for H2 is not yet in; the trajectory flag stands.

Monetary Independence - The refining/fuel crisis deepened past price control: after Ukrainian strikes hit the Omsk refinery (completing the campaign against all major producers), Russia banned diesel exports through July 31 (on top of earlier gasoline/jet-fuel bans) and began IMPORTING fuel to cover domestic shortages, with European diesel margins spiking to a record ~$60/bbl (Meduza, The Moscow Times, Bloomberg - exile-independent/wire; Putin's earlier shortage admission cross-checked, not from TASS). Worsened -3 -> -4; confidence up.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The 2022 reserve freeze exposed a weaponizable vulnerability; the gold/alternative-payment pivot is defensive. (Brookings)

Inflation - HELD at -5: the ruble weakened to 85.95 per dollar, down 4.17% over the trailing month (Trading Economics, Sept 7). An independent market print rather than a Rosstat figure, which remains unusable. The move is real but within the range already priced, so it raises confidence 0.65 -> 0.68 rather than moving the score.

Banking Stability - Held at -6: the record-length MOEX decline compounds a pre-window European-intelligence warning (reported July 6) that Russia risks an 'explosive' banking crisis (~10% of corporate loans doubtful, some retail NPL ratios ~15%, cash-outside-banks +17% y/y) - flagged as directional, pre-window context, with VTB boosting loss reserves (US News/Reuters - partially-entangled). Held; confidence held pending in-window bank data.

Trade Actions Capacity - Worsened -8 -> -9: Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Azov-Black Sea grain export capacity offline (Moscow Times citing SovEcon: August wheat ~3-3.4Mt vs a 5Mt five-year average; the triggering Aug 12 Novorossiysk terminal strike killed 3 and halted ~25Mt/yr of capacity), stacking the agricultural export channel on top of ~17%+ of refining capacity already burning (Ufa Aug 19, Novokuibyshevsk Aug 22, Krasnodar Aug 25; exile-outlet and Bloomberg corroboration). Both physical export rails are now degraded simultaneously.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.92 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.14 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.36 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A capable coercive apparatus atop no judicial independence, politicised statistics, and near-total press control. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The emergency borrowing/spending law lets the government bypass statutory ceilings and withhold disclosure of how war funds are used - a further retreat from budget-law transparency (Meduza - exile-independent). Already deeply negative; held at -8; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Official statistics are politicised, with demographic data classified since 2025. (Moscow Times; Carnegie)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable coercive state apparatus, undercut by pervasive defence-budget theft. (Freedom House; TI)

Press Freedom - Held at the -9 floor area: an arrest warrant was issued for exiled Dozhd journalist Anna Mongait (Aug 25) over social-media posts on the military, continuing transnational prosecution of exile media (following February's 8-year in-absentia sentence for a colleague). Consistent with the booked level.

Civil-Military Relations - A personalist command structure that has already failed its stress test. The Wagner mutiny of June 2023 put an armed column on the road to Moscow before it was negotiated away. The 2024 arrests of a run of deputy defence ministers on corruption charges purged the ministry in the middle of a war it was already fighting. Command appointments follow proximity to the president. This case is also the standing counterexample to the claim that command purges are a leading indicator of war. This purge happened well into one.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.95 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -5.95 │ 57% │

│ long │ -5.95 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suppressed stability with a fat-tail succession risk, severe repression, and a demographic crisis. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD near -4: Duma election voting opened Sept 18-20, first wartime parliamentary vote with no meaningful opposition on the ballot and voting in occupied Ukrainian oblasts (Chicago Tribune, Al Jazeera, AP). Results pending Sept 20. Trump signed sweeping Russia-Iran sanctions law Sept 18. Confidence 0.68 -> 0.7.

Civil Liberties - Severe repression, with multi-year sentences for anti-war speech. (Freedom House; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - Residence routes exist, but it is a mobilization state with exit risk for men - a deep risk ceiling. (HRW; Meduza)

Social Cohesion - War propaganda, mounting casualties, and the emigration of the educated. (Carnegie)

Demographics - A pre-war decline (record-low births, deep natural decrease) compounded by war deaths and brain drain - a crisis. (Moscow Times; Carnegie; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.38 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -5.07 │ 58% │

│ long │ -4.76 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A heavily sanctioned Western pariah and the aggressor in an ongoing war. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 87% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Friction opened with a cultivated non-aligned partner: India summoned Russia's charge d'affaires after a July 19 strike hit the merchant vessel MV Golden Leo near Odesa, killing four of its five Indian crew - the first Indian seafarer deaths of the war - with India's MEA calling it 'unacceptable' while the Kremlin said strikes will continue (India TV, Outlook - independent, third-party press). Real but bounded (India needs Russian crude): held at -6; confidence held; note the strain on the sanctions-workaround relationship.

Conflict Involvement - HELD at -9: Putin met US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow for roughly three hours on Sept 5 and ordered a 72-hour halt on strikes against Kyiv, but restated maximalist war aims and the Kremlin said no new ideas were floated (Washington Post, Time). Russia demonstrating it can switch strikes on its capital-city target set off and on at will, for diplomatic scheduling, is evidence of control rather than of exhaustion. Recorded, not scored.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Held at -8: the 21st package's 218 designations, bank/payment/crypto transaction bans and A7 stablecoin-network measures take effect on staggered dates Aug 13 and Aug 23 - enforcement is landing in this window - and private-sector compliance is broadening (Apple/Google app delistings). The oil price cap stands as booked at $44.10, frozen for a year at the July 23 adoption (secondary-press package numbering is inconsistent; no in-window primary contradicts). The 22nd package is not expected before October - a slower cadence.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

War-strained healthcare, uneven infrastructure, and rising crime, with mixed climate exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Two-sided - a near-term high-latitude/Arctic-access window, but permafrost-thaw infrastructure collapse, Siberian wildfire, and methane feedbacks plus weak readiness turn it net-negative in longer outlooks. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - War-strained and underfunded outside the major cities, with a large untreated-veteran burden. (BBC Russian; Meduza)

Infrastructure - Worsened -4 -> -5: three refineries hit in seven days (Ufa, Novokuibyshevsk ~1,000km deep, Krasnodar) plus the Novorossiysk grain-terminal complex; cumulative energy and port infrastructure damage is now structural, with repairs competing against ongoing strikes and sanctioned parts.

Crime Safety - Rising crime at multi-year highs, linked partly to returning veterans, with a drained police force. (Moscow Times; Verstka)

Disaster Insurance - Underdeveloped, with low penetration. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.18 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -3.45 │ 56% │

│ long │ -3.72 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.26 │ 58% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.54 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.54 │ 59% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.30 │ -5.28 │ -5.26 │

│ Assets │ -5.45 │ -5.54 │ -5.62 │

│ Currency │ -5.54 │ -5.66 │ -5.78 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘