- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem/Freedom House, RSF, HRW, Amnesty, UN Group of Experts, Crisis Group); Rwandan state media used only for self-reported program/disaster figures, cross-checked; economic data IMF-validated.

- A developmental-state success on delivery (low corruption, high capacity, health, safety, growth) sitting on a hard authoritarian ceiling and active, sanctioned DRC-war involvement.

- Standout split: genuine delivery strengths vs a personalist autocracy, transnational repression, the M23/DRC war drawing 2025 sanctions, and rising debt/inflation. Overall: negative on the forward DRC-war/sanctions tail.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Strong growth on an aid- and debt-dependent base, with a minerals flag and a managed currency. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Strong ~7-9% growth but debt projected ~86% GDP by 2026 (airport borrowing), donor-dependent, on a new IMF arrangement. (IMF Art IV/PCI Dec 2025)

Monetary Independence - A managed franc with a reactive central bank (a rate hike as inflation broke band) and limited true independence. (IMF; central bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Re-accelerated to ~9%, above the band. (central bank)

Banking Stability - Sound (low NPLs, expanding credit), still developing/shallow. (central bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A services/tourism/conference hub plus coffee/tea and minerals (partly DRC-sourced - a sanctions/reputation flag); a development model but aid-dependent and small. (Crisis Group; UN GoE)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.33 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.33 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.33 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Genuinely high state capacity and low corruption, but no political-sphere rule of law and a repressed press. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A split - genuinely low corruption and high state capacity, but no judicial independence on politics. (Transparency International; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged and usable, with some independent GDP-credibility questions. (IMF; academic critiques)

Civil Service Capacity - A standout developmental-state strength, with efficient delivery. (World Bank; BTI 2026)

Press Freedom - A poor and falling RSF standing, with surveillance, arrests, and exiled-journalist disappearances. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.47 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -0.47 │ 59% │

│ long │ -0.47 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Highly stable near-term under personalist rule, but with severely restricted liberties and transnational repression. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - An entrenched leader re-elected with ~99%, highly stable near-term but personalist with a succession fat-tail. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Opposition disqualified, detention, and transnational repression. (Freedom House; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Business-friendly entry and refugee-hosting, but an authoritarian ceiling with no political belonging. (HRW)

Social Cohesion - Real post-genocide order and reconciliation, but enforced, with ethnic discourse tightly policed. (BTI 2026)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing but dense, with a land/jobs strain. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.80 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.80 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.80 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western security partner increasingly sanctioned over deep DRC-war involvement. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A Western security/peacekeeping partner, increasingly sanctioned over the DRC. (Crisis Group; Al Jazeera)

Conflict Involvement - Deep involvement in the DRC conflict - backing the M23 rebels who seized Goma and territory in 2025, UN-documented. (UN Group of Experts; Crisis Group)

Sanctions Capital Controls - 2025 Western sanctions and aid cuts over the DRC; otherwise open. (Al Jazeera)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.15 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.15 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A health-system success, good regional infrastructure, and high safety, against flood/landslide and land pressure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Landslides/floods on steep terrain, but notably strong governance/readiness for the region. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A genuine development success - a strong community-health system with high coverage for its income level. (MoH; WHO)

Infrastructure - Good and improving for the region - a clean, safe capital, good roads, and a new airport. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Among Africa's safest - a genuine strength. (UK FCDO)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration, with a still-nascent disaster-risk-finance strategy. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.30 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.20 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.95 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.33 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.61 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.92 │ -0.93 │ -0.95 │

│ Assets │ -1.32 │ -1.33 │ -1.34 │

│ Currency │ -1.61 │ -1.61 │ -1.61 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘