- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, World Bank, AfDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Senegalese/French-language and international press; the CFA franc is pegged to the euro.

- A strong democratic tradition that passed a 2024 turnover test, now grappling with a confirmed hidden-debt shock (the IMF program frozen) and fresh 2026 governing-coalition friction; new oil/gas is coming online.

- Standout features: democratic resilience, new hydrocarbons, and low peg-anchored inflation, against a major hidden-debt revelation and data-integrity hit. Source-lean: LOW-MODERATE Anglophone (French press corroborated).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

New oil/gas and low peg-anchored inflation, against a major hidden-debt shock that froze the IMF program. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -4.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A 2024 audit confirmed misreporting - IMF-consolidated debt ~132% of GDP (versus ~70% reported) and a 13.4% 2024 deficit - freezing the IMF program; consolidating but with no new program yet. (IMF Nov-2025; Court of Auditors)

Monetary Independence - The CFA-franc euro peg delivers stability and credibility but zero autonomy, France-guaranteed and regionally pooled. (BCEAO/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~1-3%). (IMF)

Banking Stability - A sound regional system, with some sovereign-exposure strain from the debt shock. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - New oil and LNG online from 2024-25 (boosting growth ~8%), plus gold/phosphates/fishing; a nascent-resource-curse risk and debt overhang temper. (Ecofin; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.07 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.49 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.91 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A strong democratic tradition pursuing accountability, with the hidden-debt scandal a data-integrity hit. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A strong democratic tradition with a 2023-24 crackdown legacy; the new government pursues audits/accountability. (Freedom House; WJP)

Statistical Integrity - The hidden-debt scandal badly hurt credibility; corrective publications are improving but capacity is weak. (IMF; Court of Auditors)

Civil Service Capacity - Decent for the region and reforming, with a debt-management gap. (World Bank/IMF)

Press Freedom - Relatively free, with the RSF rank rising, against some online-harassment and lese-majeste jailings. (RSF; CIVICUS)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.10 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +0.26 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.42 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A democratic turnover that passed a crisis test, with fresh 2026 coalition friction. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The Faye-Sonko rupture deepened: at a July 12 Touba rally Sonko accused President Faye of abandoning the movement's commitments and explicitly threatened to use Pastef's parliamentary majority to repeatedly bring down the government via no-confidence motions ('we have levers to face him'), following his May dismissal as PM (AfrikSoir - domestic independent, single-sourced for the rally specifics, flagged; the May rupture background corroborated by Al Jazeera). An intra-ruling-coalition war atop a debt crisis: near -3 -> -4, long 2 -> 1; confidence held at 0.70 given the single-source rally sourcing.

Civil Liberties - Improving post-2024 on a strong tradition, with residual speech-prosecution risk. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - A regional hub with lawful-ish routes. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Easing Casamance separatism but youth-unemployment/emigration pressure, with the coalition rift a strain. (ICG)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a dividend with a jobs/migration strain. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.88 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -0.16 │ 67% │

│ long │ +0.57 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western-aligned anchor recalibrating toward sovereignty, with Sahel-spillover risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A Western/France-aligned anchor recalibrating (a full French-base withdrawal, a sovereigntist tilt) - not a junta pivot, net positive. (Euronews; France 24)

Conflict Involvement - No war, with Sahel-jihadist border-spillover risk and easing Casamance separatism. (ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open WAEMU/CFA, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.64 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +0.64 │ 72% │

│ long │ +0.64 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Relatively good regional infrastructure, against Sahel drought, coastal erosion, and weak healthcare. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Sahel drought plus low-lying Dakar/Saint-Louis coastal erosion and sea-level, moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Improving but weak, with low spend. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Relatively good and improving regionally - the capital, a new city, an airport, and a new deep-water port. (trade.gov)

Crime Safety - Relatively safe regionally, with urban street crime. (US State Dept)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.36 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -1.47 │ 61% │

│ long │ -1.57 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.28 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.22 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.11 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.37 │ -0.04 │ +0.28 │

│ Assets │ -0.05 │ +0.22 │ +0.50 │

│ Currency │ +0.11 │ +0.44 │ +0.76 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘