- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0. State-aligned outlets (Straits Times/SPH, CNA) were EXCLUDED on governance/rights/press and rebuilt from independent monitors (Freedom House, RSF, WJP, HRW, Transparency International); economics anchored to the IMF Article IV.

- The core tension: world-class capacity, safety, and finance against a dominant-party state with low press freedom, restricted civil liberties, and a hard path to belonging.

- Source-lean: economics IMF-anchored; rule_of_law kept net-positive only because the corruption/commercial/regulatory strength is corroborated by independent WJP/TI data, with rights sub-dimensions scored down.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A world-class financial/trade hub with deep reserves and sovereign funds; tail risk only from external-demand exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 82% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Surpluses, large reserves plus GIC/Temasek sovereign funds, AAA-rated. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The MAS runs an exchange-rate-centred regime (managed float vs a basket) - deliberate, highly credible, and effective at anchoring inflation. (IMF Art IV 2025; MAS)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The SGD is not a major reserve currency but is a hard, stable currency in a top global financial hub. (IMF)

Inflation - Low and well-managed (core ~1%). (IMF Art IV 2025)

Banking Stability - World-class hub, CAR ~19%, strong liquidity/asset quality; the IMF judges it resilient. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - An entrepot/finance/electronics hub with ultra-open trade and no resource curse; tail risk only from external-demand dependence. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.78 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +6.78 │ 60% │

│ long │ +6.78 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class state capacity, commercial law, and anti-corruption, against constrained political/judicial space and low press freedom. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A split: excellent on corruption, regulatory enforcement, and commercial/contract law (WJP 16/143; 3rd globally on absence of corruption), but weak on constraints on government and fundamental rights. Net high. (WJP; TI CPI 84/100)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, IMF-validated economic data. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - A world-class meritocratic bureaucracy and execution - a genuine strength. (IMF; WJP regulatory enforcement)

Press Freedom - RSF 123/180 and falling: state-aligned media, POFMA, and defamation suits. Clearly negative. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.73 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +4.73 │ 59% │

│ long │ +4.73 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very high regime stability and order, against restricted civil liberties and a hard path to belonging. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +7.0 │ +6.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +2.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -4.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Very high: the PAP won ~66% in May 2025 with an orderly 2024 transition to PM Wong; discounted long-run for one-party dominance with no pluralist release valve. (Freedom House 2025; election results)

Civil Liberties - 'Partly Free': restricted assembly/speech/association, judicial caning, and executions for drug offences. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Selective lawful entry (the high-threshold Employment Pass, COMPASS points), orderly, but PR/citizenship is hard with a limited path to belonging - a ceiling. (MOM/EDB 2025)

Social Cohesion - Orderly multi-ethnic management and very low crime. (observed)

Demographics - Fertility ~0.97 (below 1.0), with 65+ rising toward ~24% by 2030; structurally immigration-dependent. (SingStat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.60 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A US security partner and ASEAN hub that deliberately balances China; low direct conflict exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 68% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A US security partner and ASEAN hub that deliberately balances China - reliable but non-aligned by design. (CFR)

Conflict Involvement - Low direct involvement; South China Sea adjacency and great-power competition are background risks to a trade-dependent hub. (CFR)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account and free hub - positive for holders. (IMF; MAS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +2.73 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, healthcare, and safety; the rising tail is sea-level for a low island city-state. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 82% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Resilient/very high readiness, but equatorial heat-humidity and sea-level rise on a low-lying island-state are structural. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A world-class system, medical-tourism grade. (IMF; observed)

Infrastructure - World-class port, airport, telecom, and utilities. (IMF Art IV)

Crime Safety - Among the safest globally - a genuine strength. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Low natural-catastrophe exposure (no quakes/cyclones) with a developed market and high state capacity; sea-level the rising tail. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.20 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +6.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ +6.0 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.80 │ 60% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +5.07 │ 60% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +5.59 │ 60% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.60 │ +4.20 │ +3.80 │

│ Assets │ +5.24 │ +5.07 │ +4.91 │

│ Currency │ +5.59 │ +5.50 │ +5.42 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘