- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, USIP, Freedom House, TI, Lowy) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- A geopolitical flashpoint that swung back West - the 2019 Taiwan-to-China switch and 2022 China security pact made it a contest zone; on 7 May 2026 PM Manele was ousted and pact-critic Matthew Wale became PM after the courts forced the vote (very recent, trajectory uncertain, reduced confidence).

- Standout drags: aid-dependence and a depleting logging base, the Malaita/Guadalcanal 'Tensions' legacy and 2021 anti-China Honiara riots, weak health/infrastructure, and acute climate vulnerability (low-lying islands disappearing).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Low debt but a deteriorating, aid-dependent fiscal trajectory on a depleting logging base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Persistent ~3% deficits and depleted cash reserves; public debt roughly tripled since 2019 (to ~20% of GDP) as logging revenue declines - low level but a deteriorating trajectory. (IMF 2024 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The CBSI runs a basket peg of the SBD providing nominal stability, but policy space is minimal in an aid/import-dependent economy. (IMF 2024)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The SBD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate and broadly contained, though import-price-sensitive. (IMF 2024; World Bank MPO)

Banking Stability - A small, shallow, foreign-bank-influenced system with limited credit penetration - stable but undeveloped. (IMF 2024)

Trade Actions Capacity - A dangerously narrow, depleting base - over-harvested logging plus fish dominate exports, with new Chinese loan dependency. (IMF 2024; Mongabay)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.39 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -1.60 │ 66% │

│ long │ -1.81 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak rule of law and corruption, with a stark Honiara-vs-provinces capacity gap. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Generally respected rights but weak rule of law, corruption (CPI 43/100), and logging-permit abuse; the May 2026 courts forced a delayed no-confidence vote - a positive signal. (Freedom House 2025; TI 2024)

Statistical Integrity - Weak, donor-dependent capacity, with sparse and lagged figures. (IMF; World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Limited reach with a stark Honiara-vs-provinces service gap - a root cause of the Tensions and ongoing Malaita grievance. (USIP 2024; CRS)

Press Freedom - A relatively pluralistic but pressured environment (the Sogavare government floated media controls); not RSF-ranked, so confidence is capped. (Freedom House 2025; CIVICUS)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.22 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -2.22 │ 57% │

│ long │ -2.22 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Democracy held through brinkmanship, over a live Tensions/anti-China fault line. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A peaceful 2024 election was followed by an eight-week 2026 constitutional crisis the Court of Appeal had to resolve (ousting Manele, installing Wale) - democracy held but through brinkmanship, and the new government is untested. (RFA; Devpolicy 2026)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected speech/assembly/religion, with periodic restrictions during unrest. (Freedom House 2025; CIVICUS)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic exit-ban regime, but the 2021 riots specifically targeted the Chinese community/Chinatown - a demonstrated risk. (RNZ; CNN 2021)

Social Cohesion - The Malaita/Guadalcanal 'Tensions' legacy (RAMSI 2003-2017) and 2021 anti-China riots show a live fault line tied to the China alignment and provincial inequality. (USIP 2024; Mongabay)

Demographics - Young, fast-growing, rapidly urbanizing - pressuring scarce Honiara services and jobs, a contributor to unrest. (World Bank; UN DESA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.84 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -1.77 │ 58% │

│ long │ -1.71 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A volatile multi-aligned 'friends to all', leader-dependent and unpredictable. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A volatile multi-alignment - the 2019 China switch and 2022 pact alarmed the West, but the May 2026 arrival of pact-critic Wale (plus a 2024 Australian RSIPF deal) suggests a Western tilt; unpredictable and leader-dependent. (Lowy 2026; ASPI; CRS)

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict; the risk is recurrent internal unrest (2021 riots) and great-power basing friction. (CFR; Lowy)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned and open, with routine small-economy exchange administration. (IMF 2024)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.74 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +0.55 │ 58% │

│ long │ +0.36 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's most climate-vulnerable, with weak health and dispersed-archipelago infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 76% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Has already lost >=5 reef islands to SLR (Nuatambu etc.), high cyclone/flood exposure, the lowest adaptive capacity in the region. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A weak, rural-access-poor system flagged as a top election issue, reliant on foreign (incl. Chinese) medical support. (PIReport 2025; WHO)

Infrastructure - Poor roads, limited grid/water/broadband, and dispersed-archipelago logistics; the pipeline is heavily donor/loan-financed. (ADB; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Lower routine violent crime than PNG but recurrent mob/riot risk (2021) and rising urban problems. (CIVICUS; Freedom House 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against extreme climate and seismic/tsunami exposure, partly offset by regional pooling (PCRIC). (inference; PCRIC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.90 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -6.12 │ 66% │

│ long │ -6.35 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.56 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.94 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.26 │ 62% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.44 │ -2.50 │ -2.56 │

│ Assets │ -1.81 │ -1.94 │ -2.07 │

│ Currency │ -1.26 │ -1.42 │ -1.57 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘