- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF ECF/Art IV, World Bank, WHO/Africa CDC, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international press (Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera) and ReliefWeb on disaster exposure.

- Fragile post-civil-war democracy: a disputed 2023 election and a failed Nov-2023 coup (ex-President Koroma charged; 2024 treason convictions), now stabilizing - inflation crushed from ~50%+ to single digits and an IMF program on track - but with a weak health system (a 2025 mpox surge), and high disaster/climate exposure. Its own currency, the leone (SLE, redenominated 2022).

- Standout features: a dramatic inflation collapse (~55% in 2023 to ~4-8% in 2025-26) under a stable leone and IMF ECF; an unresolved political-legitimacy crisis from the 2023 disputed vote and failed coup; and severe public-health/climate fragility (Africa's largest 2025 mpox outbreak; the 2017 Freetown mudslide legacy).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Stabilizing off a severe 2022-23 crisis - inflation crushed, an IMF program on track - but a low-income, commodity-dependent, own-currency economy with a recent high-inflation history. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Consolidating under a 38-month IMF ECF (approved Oct-2024; 1st/2nd reviews completed Dec-2025) - deficit narrowed to ~4.3% of GDP in 2025 with a small primary surplus - but high debt and external-financing dependence. (IMF Dec-2025)

Monetary Independence - Its own central bank with nominal autonomy, but a weak credibility record (a 2022 redenomination after near-50% inflation), only now anchoring expectations. (IMF; World Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The leone is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Crushed from ~55% (Oct-2023) to ~4.4% (Oct-2025), but rebounding toward ~8-10% in 2026 on fuel/import shocks - improved yet structurally volatile. (IMF; World Bank)

Banking Stability - Small, shallow, and dollarized, with high NPLs and sovereign-exposure concentration. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Narrow and commodity-concentrated - diamonds, iron ore, agriculture (Feed Salone) - with a structural current-account deficit. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.38 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -1.41 │ 71% │

│ long │ -1.43 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Multiparty and IMF-engaged but with weak rule of law, pervasive corruption, and a pressured press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 72% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak with pervasive corruption; the 2024 treason trials over the Nov-2023 coup (mass convictions; ex-President Koroma charged then allowed exile) showed politicized, uneven justice. (Freedom House; TI; Al Jazeera)

Statistical Integrity - Limited capacity but IMF-engaged and improving through program reviews. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and under-resourced, exposed by the 2022-23 fiscal/spending overruns and limited service delivery. (IMF/World Bank)

Press Freedom - Improved after 2020 criminal-libel repeal but still pressured - sedition/defamation tools used against journalists covering corruption. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.01 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -3.01 │ 64% │

│ long │ -3.01 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A peaceful post-war record strained by a disputed 2023 vote and a failed 2023 coup, atop deep poverty. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A disputed June-2023 election (Bio re-elected ~56%; APC alleged fraud, EU/Carter Center flagged tabulation opacity) and a failed Nov-2023 coup with a mass prison break; a fragile post-conflict equilibrium since stabilized somewhat. (Al Jazeera; The Conversation; Int'l IDEA)

Civil Liberties - Broadly free with active opposition and media, but post-coup security pressure and periodic protest crackdowns (e.g. Aug-2022 unrest). (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic abuse of foreigners; generally open to regional migrants and refugees. (UNHCR; observed)

Social Cohesion - An SLPP/APC and regional/ethnic (Mende-Temne) cleavage that recurs around elections, atop a 1991-2002 civil-war legacy. (Freedom House; ICG)

Demographics - Very young and growing - a dividend undercut by deep poverty, low human capital, and a jobs strain. (UN; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.95 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -1.71 │ 66% │

│ long │ -1.48 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An unsanctioned, internationally engaged ECOWAS member outside the Sahel war zone, with the coup the main instability marker. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A non-aligned but Western/multilateral-engaged ECOWAS member, currently holding a UN Security Council non-permanent seat (2024-25). (observed; UN)

Conflict Involvement - No active armed conflict and outside the Sahel jihadist zone, but the failed Nov-2023 coup is the live instability marker. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned and broadly open, with managed FX and a thin reserve buffer the constraint. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.69 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +0.69 │ 64% │

│ long │ +0.69 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the weakest in the dataset - a fragile health system, severe flood/landslide exposure, and poor infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 64% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-25 - intense-rain flooding/landslides (2017 Freetown), coastal erosion, very low readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Very weak - an Ebola-scarred system overwhelmed by Africa's largest 2025 mpox outbreak (>50% of new African cases mid-2025), among the world's worst maternal/child mortality. (WHO; Africa CDC; Science)

Infrastructure - Poor - unreliable power, limited roads, and low water/sanitation coverage. (World Bank; AfDB)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with petty/urban crime and a 2022 drug-epidemic ('kush') public-health-and-safety strain. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against high flood/landslide exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.79 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -4.89 │ 66% │

│ long │ -4.99 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.41 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.86 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.42 │ 68% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.52 │ -2.46 │ -2.41 │

│ Assets │ -1.87 │ -1.86 │ -1.86 │

│ Currency │ -1.42 │ -1.43 │ -1.43 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘