- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/EFF, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Salvadoran official (BCR) + Salvadoran independent press (El Faro, partly in exile).

- A dramatic gang-violence collapse delivering genuine physical safety, set against a hollowing-out of the rule of law; the country is dollarized and walked back Bitcoin legal-tender status in 2025.

- Standout tension: a huge crime/safety turnaround vs eroding rule of law and a multi-year state of exception with mass detention. Scored as distinct, both-large effects rather than netted. Source-lean: significant Anglophone/multilateral; in-exile domestic press may understate repression.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Dollar-anchored stability and an IMF anchor, against high debt and remittance dependence. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 90% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High debt ~85-89% GDP but a 2025 IMF program restoring access and consolidating toward ~80% - high debt offset by credible adjustment. (IMF EFF 2025)

Monetary Independence - Dollarized - zero monetary autonomy but imported stability; Bitcoin legal-tender status repealed in 2025. (IMF; BCR)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - It uses the US dollar, so no local-currency devaluation/FX risk. (IMF)

Inflation - Around 1% - among the region's lowest, dollar-anchored. (BCR; IMF)

Banking Stability - Low NPLs and adequate capital, deemed sound; remittance-funded. (IMF Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - ~4% growth, tourism boosted by the security turnaround, and textiles/nearshoring, but remittances ~27% of GDP create US-immigration-policy fragility. (World Bank; BCR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.91 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.91 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.91 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Centralized, comparatively effective delivery, against an eroded rule of law and a declining press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Bukele was proclaimed Nuevas Ideas' presidential candidate for 2027 on July 12, operationalizing the July 2025 constitutional overhaul (indefinite re-election, 6-year terms, runoff abolished, passed undebated in one session); formal TSE registration opens Oct 1 (EFE via La Hora, PanamPost - independent wire, corroborated). The erosion moves from enabling amendment to actual entrenchment in practice: worsened -6 -> -7; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Official data is broadly usable and IMF-engaged, with some opacity. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Centralized and comparatively effective at delivery. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - A steep RSF decline, with the leading investigative outlet partly in exile and journalist surveillance. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.87 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -2.87 │ 59% │

│ long │ -2.87 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Popular near-term stability built on suspended constitutional norms, with mass detention the cost. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2024 landslide re-election and durable popularity, but built on suspended constitutional norms and indefinite reelection - a long-run legitimacy risk. (V-Dem; HRW)

Civil Liberties - A multi-year state of exception with tens of thousands detained without due process and in-custody deaths reported. (HRW World Report 2026; WOLA)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited inflows; it accepted US deportees into its mega-prison, with abuse allegations. (HRW; CNN)

Social Cohesion - The gang-violence collapse is hugely popular and unifying, but on a fear-based underpinning. (WOLA; HRW)

Demographics - Young-ish but with a heavy emigration legacy and remittance dependence. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A close, transactional US ally with an open economy and a suppressed internal conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A close, transactional US ally (a deportation/mega-prison partnership) - Western-aligned but personalised. (CNN; PBS)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate war, with the internal gang conflict effectively suppressed. (CRS)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open, dollarized, not sanctioned, with free capital flows. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.35 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +4.35 │ 60% │

│ long │ +4.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A dramatic crime-rate collapse, against seismic/storm exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A Central American Dry Corridor epicenter - chronic drought plus a tiny Pacific coast plus low readiness. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Weak-to-moderate, with uneven access. (general indicators)

Infrastructure - Improving on security-enabled private investment. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Homicides collapsed to ~1/100k from among the world's highest - a genuine, dramatic gain, at a heavy rights cost. (BCR; HRW)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against high seismic/climate exposure. (GFDRR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.73 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -0.94 │ 58% │

│ long │ -1.14 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.43 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.47 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.21 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.74 │ -1.08 │ -1.43 │

│ Assets │ +0.60 │ +0.47 │ +0.34 │

│ Currency │ +1.21 │ +1.16 │ +1.11 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘