- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF Art IV, Freedom House, RSF, EU, MONEYVAL) + international/European press.

- The world's oldest republic, surrounded by Italy and using the euro; a banking-and-manufacturing economy still carrying a banking-crisis legacy (NPLs ~17%) with high-but-declining public debt.

- Standout features: top-of-cohort institutions (FH 97/100) and social cohesion, against the thinnest, most Italy-dependent economy of the European microstates and a tightly-capitalized banking sector.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A euro-using, Italy-coupled economy with a banking-crisis legacy and high-but-declining debt. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt high but declining (~60-63% of GDP), with limited fiscal buffers and significant contingent liabilities requiring further consolidation. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - Uses the euro under an EU monetary agreement - no own monetary policy. (EU monetary agreement)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the euro (a reserve currency) but issues none. (IMF)

Inflation - Imports eurozone inflation (~2%); no independent dynamics. (ECB; IMF)

Banking Stability - NPLs still ~16.9% (end-2024, from 21%), with tight capitalization at some banks - the legacy crisis is the standout risk. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Banking plus manufacturing and a tourism boom - thin and Italy-dependent; the EU Association Agreement could lift growth but adds bank competition. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.20 │ 79% │

│ mid │ -0.20 │ 79% │

│ long │ -0.20 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-of-cohort rule of law and an active press, with heavy defamation fines a chill risk. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong rule of law - FH 97/100, the highest of the cohort - though corruption is flagged. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, IMF-engaged statistics, with thin coverage. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent small administration, stretched by the EU-accession and bank-restructuring workload. (IMF; EC)

Press Freedom - Investigative journalists active, but heavy defamation fines can encourage self-censorship; RSF does not separately rank San Marino. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.77 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +4.77 │ 63% │

│ long │ +4.77 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, highly cohesive, homogeneous democracy (the oldest republic). (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable parliamentary democracy (the oldest republic) - FH political rights 39/40. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Generally upheld (FH civil liberties 58/60). (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A sizable Italian-resident community generally treated fairly in a small/homogeneous polity. (FH 2025)

Social Cohesion - Highly cohesive and homogeneous, with mild tourism-boom pressures. (FH; IMF)

Demographics - Small (~34k) and aging like Italy, with low fertility. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.38 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +5.38 │ 73% │

│ long │ +5.38 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Italy-integrated, conflict-free, and EU-associating. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Not in NATO/EU, but surrounded by and deeply integrated with Italy (a UN/Council of Europe member), with an EU Association Agreement pending. (EC; UN)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account aligned with EU/international norms; bank-sector scrutiny a residual factor. (IMF; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.47 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +5.47 │ 70% │

│ long │ +5.47 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Low-hazard with good Italy-integrated services and very low crime. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Enclaved in central Italy - Mediterranean/Apennine heat, drought, and wildfire exposure, with high income aiding adaptation. (IPCC AR6; EEA)

Healthcare - Good universal healthcare, integrated with the Italian system for complex care. (general)

Infrastructure - Solid for its size, but landlocked, Italy-connected, with no airport/rail of its own. (general)

Crime Safety - Very low crime. (general; FH)

Disaster Insurance - Developed insurance access via Italy against moderate seismic exposure. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.41 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +4.24 │ 60% │

│ long │ +4.08 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.05 │ 68% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.68 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.72 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.09 │ +4.07 │ +4.05 │

│ Assets │ +2.69 │ +2.68 │ +2.67 │

│ Currency │ +1.72 │ +1.72 │ +1.72 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘