- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, UN/OCHA/UNHCR, Freedom House, RSF, ICG, Soufan Center, CTC West Point, FEWS NET) + international press.

- Data limitation: official statistics are weak and patchy, with most figures external (World Bank/IMF) estimates and large areas under al-Shabaab parallel governance; confidence is capped accordingly.

- Standout features: a rare debt bright spot (the 2023 HIPC completion cut external debt below 6% of GDP on an IMF program), against a 2025 al-Shabaab resurgence, an AUSSOM funding crisis, clan fragmentation, and recurrent drought/famine.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A post-HIPC debt bright spot and dollarization-anchored inflation, against a thin, aid/remittance-dependent base. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Aid- and remittance-dependent with a narrow revenue base, but post-HIPC debt is under 6% of GDP and an IMF ECF anchors reform; 2025 donor-aid cuts squeeze the budget. (World Bank 2025; IMF)

Monetary Independence - Effectively no functioning national currency - heavy dollarization leaves the central bank with minimal tools. (World Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The shilling is not a reserve currency; the US dollar dominates transactions. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3.7% in 2025, relatively contained as dollarization imports US price discipline. (World Bank 2025)

Banking Stability - A thin, largely informal mobile-money/hawala system; formal banking is shallow and reintegrating post-debt-relief. (World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A small livestock/agriculture export economy reliant on remittances and imports, vulnerable to drought and aid shocks. (World Bank 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.76 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.76 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.76 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Limited territorial control, collapsed-then-rebuilding data, and a deadly press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The federal government has limited territorial control, with large areas under al-Shabaab parallel governance or clan authority; 'Not Free'. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Weak and patchy - most figures are external estimates, though improving under the IMF program. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Limited reach beyond Mogadishu and donor-dependent, with federal-member-state friction. (CTC West Point)

Press Freedom - Journalists face arrest, violence, and killings from both state security and al-Shabaab. (Freedom House 2025; SJS)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.98 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -6.98 │ 59% │

│ long │ -6.98 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A 2025 insurgent resurgence and clan fragmentation over a conflict-displaced society. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD near -8: the Somali military said it repelled a multi-hour armed assault on Baidoa, capital of South West State, by forces loyal to ousted governor Laftagareen (Al Jazeera, Sept 3). The clash is independently reported, but the claim that Laftagareen's forces acted together with al-Shabab is the government's assertion and is NOT treated as established, which is why this is recorded rather than scored down. A federal member state's ousted leadership fighting for a regional capital is the thing to watch if the al-Shabab link is later corroborated. The Galkayo situation remains unresolved with nothing dated newer than 2026-08-14.

Civil Liberties - Severely constrained by conflict, al-Shabaab repression in held areas, and state pressure; 'Not Free'. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts some refugees/returnees but is overwhelmingly an origin/IDP country amid conflict and drought. (UNHCR/OCHA)

Social Cohesion - Clan-based politics and 4.5 power-sharing create chronic fragmentation that al-Shabaab exploits. (ICG; CTC)

Demographics - Very young and high-fertility, but with a human-capital deficit from weak services and conflict. (UN/World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.88 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -5.57 │ 57% │

│ long │ -5.25 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Internationally backed but dependent on a funding-strapped AU mission, with twin insurgencies. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Recognised with Turkey/Gulf/US/AU partners (the 2024 Ankara reconciliation with Ethiopia), but dependent on fragile external security funding (the AUSSOM crisis). (UN; ISS)

Conflict Involvement - An active al-Shabaab insurgency, an ISIS-Somalia presence in Puntland, and the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU dispute. (Soufan Center; CTC; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Targeted UN/US measures relate mainly to al-Shabaab/charcoal, not the state; reintegrating post-HIPC. (UN; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.50 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A national drought emergency, a near-collapsed health system, and high insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -8.0 │ -8.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Near ND-GAIN rock-bottom - chronic drought-famine plus flash floods and locusts, state collapse = near-zero readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB Horn)

Healthcare - Among the world's weakest - very high maternal/child mortality and ~1.8M children facing acute malnutrition. (UNICEF/WHO)

Infrastructure - Poor and war-damaged, with pockets of port/Mogadishu recovery. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - High insecurity from insurgency, terrorism, checkpoints, and kidnapping. (ICG; ACLED-cited)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible market - risk borne by households/aid. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.96 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.23 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -4.62 │ 59% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.11 │ -6.04 │ -5.96 │

│ Assets │ -5.25 │ -5.23 │ -5.21 │

│ Currency │ -4.62 │ -4.60 │ -4.59 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘