- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/PCI, World Bank, EC, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + independent/regional press (Balkan Insight/BIRN, Al Jazeera, Euronews, RFE/RL); heavy pro-government media capture is documented, so monitors are weighted over any official narrative.

- An EU-candidate experiencing democratic backsliding: a live legitimacy crisis after the 2024 Novi Sad station-canopy collapse triggered the largest protests in decades.

- Standout drags: institutional capture, an active protest/legitimacy crisis, Western-unreliable hedging (no Russia sanctions), and steep demographic decline; sound macro is the offset. Source-lean: monitors over captured domestic media.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

The cleanest category - prudent fiscals, a credible managed dinar, and sound banks. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt below ~48% GDP and a deficit ~2% (under the ceiling), IMF-anchored. (IMF 2025 Art IV/PCI)

Monetary Independence - Managed dinar-euro stability with a credible central bank and high reserves - well-run if not fully independent. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Non-reserve and not eurozone. (definitional)

Inflation - Eased to ~4% within the band. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised, liquid, with recovered NPLs. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - Autos/manufacturing and EU-integrated nearshoring, with a big Chinese FDI bet and a contested lithium-mining project as uncertain upside. (US State Dept ICS; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.76 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +2.85 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.93 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Clearly negative - compromised courts and heavily captured media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Compromised judicial independence, appointment capture, and prosecutors pressured after probing cabinet abuses. (EC 2025 Rule of Law Report; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and EU-engaged; the IMF works with the data. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - Politicised and clientelist. (Freedom House 2026)

Press Freedom - A downward spiral - record attacks on journalists at 2025 protests, spyware, and pro-government tabloid/ad-subsidy capture. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.95 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -2.95 │ 58% │

│ long │ -2.95 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A live legitimacy crisis and steep demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 84% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -4.50 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at -4: snap election set for Oct 25 after parliament dissolution Sept 9 (Reuters, Politico EU, in-window follow-on). Campaign dynamics are the next gate. Confidence 0.82 -> 0.84.

Civil Liberties - Protest crackdowns, spyware, smear campaigns, and retaliation against critics. (Freedom House 2026; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful routes, a transit country with some Russian/Chinese inflows - moderate. (UNECE)

Social Cohesion - Polarised, with Kosovo-grievance nationalism and a protest-driven society/regime cleavage. (CEPS)

Demographics - A steep decline (down ~12% since 1990), a median age over 45, and heavy medic emigration. (UNDP; OSW; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.40 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.55 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.71 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An EU-candidate that hedges Russia/China and carries an unresolved Kosovo dispute. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - An EU-candidate that refuses to sanction Russia and hedges EU/Russia/China - unreliable to the West. (Euronews; RFE/RL)

Conflict Involvement - No active war but an unresolved Kosovo dispute with periodic flare-ups. (ECIPE; RFE/RL)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open economy, not sanctioned, broadly EU-aligned on capital. (US State Dept ICS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving infrastructure, against severe coal-driven air pollution and medic emigration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Balkan/Pannonian heat and drought on agriculture, plus river flooding, low-moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Universal-ish but uneven, with heavy medic emigration. (GMF; Balkan Insight)

Infrastructure - Improving via EU/China funds, though the canopy collapse exposed quality/oversight risk. (ECIPE)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with an organized-crime undercurrent. (GI-TOC; UNODC)

Disaster Insurance - Low-to-moderate penetration against flood exposure. (EEA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.42 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -1.63 │ 57% │

│ long │ -1.84 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.09 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.47 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.54 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.96 │ -2.03 │ -2.09 │

│ Assets │ -0.47 │ -0.47 │ -0.47 │

│ Currency │ +0.54 │ +0.58 │ +0.63 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘