- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank MPO, UN/OCHA/UNMISS, RJMEC, Freedom House, RSF, ICG, FEWS NET/IPC, UNICEF) + international press.

- Data limitation: official statistics are very weak (no completed census) and most figures are external estimates; the 2025 oil-shock and currency collapse make economic readings highly uncertain.

- Standout drags: the 2018 peace deal on the brink (Machar's March 2025 house arrest and treason trial), a ~30% 2025 economic contraction on oil-pipeline disruption, hyperinflation, and a sixth straight year of catastrophic flooding with famine risk.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A single-commodity oil economy in collapse, routed through war-torn Sudan, with hyperinflation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Almost entirely oil-funded (>90% of revenue), with revenues evaporating during the 2025 export disruption and ~80% below the poverty line. (Al Jazeera; ICG; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A nominally independent central bank overwhelmed by oil-shock currency collapse and deficit monetization. (World Bank/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The South Sudanese pound is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - A hyperinflationary surge as oil exports stalled and the pound collapsed in 2025; figures are uncertain but extreme. (ICG; World Bank MPO)

Banking Stability - A shallow, dollar-scarce system strained by fiscal collapse and devaluation. (World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - Single-commodity oil dependence routed entirely through Sudan, exposed to that war (a Feb 2025 pipeline breakdown). (Al Jazeera; ICG)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.39 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.39 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.39 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak, politicized institutions, near-absent data, and a censored press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak/politicized institutions, arbitrary NSS arrests, and the politically charged Machar prosecution; 'Not Free'. (Freedom House 2025; UN experts)

Statistical Integrity - Very weak - no completed census, with figures largely external estimates. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Hollowed by fiscal crisis (unpaid salaries) and patronage; even UNMISS cut spending in late 2025. (UNMISS; World Bank)

Press Freedom - Pervasive censorship, NSS intimidation, and outlet closures. (RSF; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.29 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -7.29 │ 59% │

│ long │ -7.29 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fractured unity government on the edge of renewed civil war, with deep ethnic cleavages. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -7.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Machar's arrest/trial has fractured the unity government, with armed clashes nationwide and elections again postponed to Dec 2026 - a possible relapse into full-scale war. (UN experts; ICG; RJMEC)

Civil Liberties - Arbitrary detention, suppression of dissent, and shrinking civic space. (Freedom House 2025; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - A strained host of returnees/refugees fleeing Sudan's war amid its own collapse. (UNHCR/OCHA)

Social Cohesion - Deep Dinka-Nuer and inter-communal cleavages, with the Nuer White Army's March 2025 Nasir assault triggering the crisis. (Al Jazeera)

Demographics - Very young and high-fertility but with a severe human-capital deficit from conflict and collapsed services. (UN/World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.69 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -6.53 │ 59% │

│ long │ -6.38 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A destabilizing, transactional regional actor under an arms embargo, dependent on Sudan for oil transit. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Backed at times by Uganda and engaged with IGAD/AU, but a transactional actor dependent on Sudan for oil transit. (ICG; UN)

Conflict Involvement - Internal armed conflict plus deep exposure to Sudan's civil war via the oil pipeline. (Al Jazeera; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Under a UN arms embargo and targeted individual sanctions; not comprehensively sanctioned as a state. (UN Security Council)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.45 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -5.45 │ 58% │

│ long │ -5.45 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Catastrophic flooding, a collapsing health system with famine-level food insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -8.0 │ -8.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 68% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN dead-last band - catastrophic recurrent flooding plus drought, conflict, near-total absence of adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A collapsing, aid-dependent system - the country's longest cholera outbreak (100,000+ cases) and millions of children acutely malnourished. (UNICEF; WHO)

Infrastructure - Minimal roads/power/water, flood-prone and undeveloped. (World Bank; OCHA)

Crime Safety - HELD at -8, confidence 0.65 -> 0.68: armed cattle raiders from Unity State killed at least 49 and wounded 33 in northwest South Sudan on Aug 28 (Reuters, Juba dateline). Communal raiding at this scale corroborates an already severe level. UN peacekeepers were ambushed and killed on Aug 24, one day before the window, and that is excluded.

Disaster Insurance - Effectively nonexistent - risk borne by aid/households. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -8.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -8.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -7.0 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -6.71 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -6.45 │ 59% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -7.06 │ -7.03 │ -7.0 │

│ Assets │ -6.72 │ -6.71 │ -6.71 │

│ Currency │ -6.45 │ -6.44 │ -6.43 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘