SΓ£o TomΓ© and PrΓncipe (STP)
Country Risk Assessment v2.3 - assessed 2026-05-28 - skew: positive
Flags
- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, IRENA, Freedom House, RSF, ISS) + international press.
- One of Africa's freest small democracies (consistently 'Free', peaceful turnovers), shaken by a November 2022 attempted coup and credible reports of custody abuse of suspects.
- Standout features: strong governance-for-income and a free press, against deep structural poverty, a chronic electricity crisis (EMAE diesel blackouts), import/aid dependence, and unmaterialized offshore oil. Net positive on institutional strength.
- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.
Transparency & confidence ceiling
Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).
Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.
Economic
A reform-anchored but aid-dependent, tiny, import-reliant economy under a euro peg. (skew: symmetric)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Fiscal State β 0.22 β 80% β -3.0 β -3.0 β -3.0 β
β Monetary Independence β 0.22 β 90% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
β Reserve Currency Intl Monetary β 0.16 β 95% β 0.0 β 0.0 β 0.0 β
β Inflation β 0.13 β 75% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Banking Stability β 0.10 β 55% β 0.0 β 0.0 β 0.0 β
β Trade Actions Capacity β 0.17 β 80% β -5.0 β -5.0 β -5.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Fiscal State - Fragile but reform-anchored under the IMF ECF, reaching a zero domestic primary balance in 2024 but heavily aid-financed with declining ODA. (IMF ECF 2nd review Dec 2025)
Monetary Independence - Essentially none - the dobra is pegged to the euro under the 2010 Portugal agreement, importing ECB policy. (IMF)
Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The dobra is not a reserve currency. (definitional)
Inflation - Eased to single digits (core ~4.7% y/y May 2025) under a tight stance and the peg. (IMF 2025 Art IV)
Banking Stability - A small, thin banking sector - stable but shallow with limited supervision capacity. (IMF; inference)
Trade Actions Capacity - Tiny and undiversified (cocoa, modest tourism), structurally import-dependent with a chronic deficit and no oil revenue. (World Bank; IMF)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β -1.37 β 81% β
β mid β -1.37 β 81% β
β long β -1.37 β 81% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Institutional
Functioning courts and a free press, with shallow institutions and a post-coup abuse blemish. (skew: symmetric)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Rule Of Law β 0.31 β 65% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Statistical Integrity β 0.22 β 60% β +1.0 β +1.0 β +1.0 β
β Civil Service Capacity β 0.22 β 60% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
β Press Freedom β 0.13 β 65% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
β Civil-Military Relations β 0.12 β 45% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Rule Of Law - Functioning courts and broadly respected rights, but shallow institutions and post-coup custody-abuse allegations are a real blemish. (Freedom House 2024; ISS)
Statistical Integrity - Fully IMF-engaged with regular reviews, but very limited microstate capacity. (IMF)
Civil Service Capacity - Weak and thin, with SOE inefficiency (notably EMAE) a flagged reform priority. (World Bank Aug 2025)
Press Freedom - Constitutionally guaranteed and largely respected, among Africa's more open environments. (Freedom House; RSF)
Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +0.92 β 60% β
β mid β +0.92 β 60% β
β long β +0.92 β 60% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Political & Social
Repeated peaceful alternations and protected liberties, with latent coup-attempt fragility. (skew: positive)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Political Stability β 0.30 β 65% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Civil Liberties β 0.20 β 70% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
β Treatment Non Citizens β 0.25 β 50% β +1.0 β +1.0 β +1.0 β
β Social Cohesion β 0.15 β 60% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Demographics β 0.10 β 55% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Political Stability - Repeated peaceful alternations and a presidential election due by July 2026, but the 2022 coup attempt shows latent fragility. (Africa Center; IPU)
Civil Liberties - Broadly protected - rated 'Free'. (Freedom House 2024)
Treatment Non Citizens - No notable systemic abuse, but very limited data for a tiny, homogeneous state. (inference)
Social Cohesion - Generally cohesive, strained by ~13% below the international poverty line and emigration pressure. (World Bank 2024)
Demographics - Tiny (~230k) with high emigration of skilled workers and limited domestic opportunity. (World Bank)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +2.54 β 61% β
β mid β +2.54 β 61% β
β long β +2.54 β 61% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Geopolitical
A stable, non-aligned, Lusophone-linked, conflict-free state. (skew: positive)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Alliance Reliability β 0.40 β 55% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Conflict Involvement β 0.35 β 75% β +6.0 β +6.0 β +6.0 β
β Sanctions Capital Controls β 0.25 β 65% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Alliance Reliability - Stable, non-aligned, close to Portugal/the Lusophone bloc - predictable but inconsequential. (observed)
Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict, aside from the isolated 2022 coup attempt. (observed)
Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions exposure, broadly open under the euro peg. (IMF)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +4.47 β 65% β
β mid β +4.47 β 65% β
β long β +4.47 β 65% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Physical & Practical
A chronic electricity crisis as the binding constraint, with weak healthcare and SIDS climate exposure. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Climate β 0.20 β 55% β -5.0 β -6.0 β -7.0 β
β Healthcare β 0.30 β 60% β -3.0 β -3.0 β -3.0 β
β Infrastructure β 0.20 β 75% β -5.0 β -5.0 β -5.0 β
β Crime Safety β 0.15 β 50% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Disaster Insurance β 0.15 β 50% β -3.0 β -3.0 β -3.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Climate - An equatorial-Atlantic SIDS - coastal/sea-level erosion plus freshwater and rainfall shifts, tiny adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN; IPCC SIDS)
Healthcare - Weak and donor-dependent, materially constrained by unreliable electricity. (IRENA 2024; WHO)
Infrastructure - The defining weakness - chronic blackouts from ~30 MW of inefficient diesel/hydro capacity (EMAE). (IEA; World Bank)
Crime Safety - Comparatively safe with low violent crime. (observed)
Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration and minimal fiscal headroom for shocks. (inference)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β -3.12 β 59% β
β mid β -3.31 β 59% β
β long β -3.49 β 59% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Decisions
Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ¬ββββββββββ
β Decision β Horizon β Score β Confidence β Reading β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββΌββββββββββ€
β Living β long β +0.51 β 64% β mixed β
β Assets β mid β +0.12 β 69% β mixed β
β Currency β near β -0.06 β 74% β mixed β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ΄ββββββββββ
Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ
β Decision β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββ€
β Living β +0.56 β +0.54 β +0.51 β
β Assets β +0.14 β +0.12 β +0.11 β
β Currency β -0.06 β -0.06 β -0.06 β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ