- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, IDB, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international and Surinamese press.

- A genuine post-default turnaround (the first IMF program Suriname ever completed, March 2025; debt restructured, hyperinflation tamed) sitting under a transformative offshore-oil tail (the GranMorgu Block 58 project, FID 2024, first oil ~2028).

- Standout features: high-variance upside (a Guyana-style oil windfall) against a fragile near-term - the new Simons government has already let fiscal/monetary discipline slip - and weak, corruption-prone institutions.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A post-default stabilization now slipping, under a transformative but not-yet-realized oil tail. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +2.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Gross debt ~106% of GDP after a 2025 slippage reversed program gains, with an IMF call for a policy reset; oil revenue from ~2028 could transform the trajectory. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - CBvS autonomy was strengthened under the EFF but is unproven - an insufficiently restrictive 2025 stance let inflation and the SRD slip. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The SRD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Down from post-default hyperinflation but back above 10% in 2025 after slippage; an IMF path targets ~7% by H1 2027. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Highly dollarized, thin, recovering from the crisis - governance improved under the EFF but the sector is small and vulnerable. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Open economy on gold plus nascent oil; GranMorgu is a major positive trajectory but a textbook resource-curse risk caps the near-term score. (Staatsolie; TotalEnergies; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.06 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -1.01 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.04 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning democracy with real judicial reach but pervasive corruption and low capacity. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A constitutional democracy with functioning courts (the Bouterse conviction is real evidence of reach) but pervasive corruption, clientelism, and weak enforcement. (Freedom House 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Improved and IMF-cited under the EFF, but capacity is thin - treat official data as partially entangled. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Low technocratic capacity, politicized appointments, and a clientelist legacy, with some EFF-built macro muscle. (IMF; World Bank)

Press Freedom - Diverse media and few attacks (RSF ~31st, 2025), but a harsh defamation law induces self-censorship. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.63 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -1.63 │ 64% │

│ long │ -1.63 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A peaceful 2025 transfer (the first woman president) in a famously plural consociational society. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A peaceful, competitive transfer after the May 2025 election - the first woman president leads a broad NDP coalition - stable but coalition-fragile. (IPU; Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Free', generally respected, with the defamation law and uneven due process as drags. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - No notable exit-ban or mass-deportation regime; modest, informal migration handling. (Freedom House)

Social Cohesion - A famously plural society (Hindustani, Maroon, Creole, Javanese, Indigenous) with a long consociational record; cocaine-transit crime and economic frustration are the drags. (Freedom House; InSight Crime)

Demographics - Relatively young with a favorable dependency ratio, but persistent emigration (especially to the Netherlands) drains skills. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.55 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +1.55 │ 66% │

│ long │ +1.55 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned, ex-Dutch CARICOM actor courting Western oil majors, with a dormant Guyana border dispute. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned, with ex-Dutch ties, CARICOM membership, and Western oil-major courtship - no coercive dependency but limited leverage. (IMF; CARICOM)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict; a long-dormant border dispute with Guyana is managed and unlikely to escalate. (Freedom House)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned, but FX-auction distortions and a managed regime mean de-facto frictions; AML/cocaine-corridor exposure is a watch-item. (IMF; INCSR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.94 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +1.94 │ 67% │

│ long │ +1.94 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Outside the hurricane belt but flood-exposed, with weak interior services. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ~87% of the population on a low coastal plain below/near sea level - severe SLR plus flooding. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Limited, concentrated in Paramaribo, sparse in the interior, with chronic financing strain. (PAHO/WHO)

Infrastructure - Weak power and transport with minimal interior reach; oil revenue could fund upgrades long-term. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate homicide but a significant and rising cocaine-transit problem and weak border control. (INCSR; InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - Outside the hurricane belt (a relative plus) but flood-exposed with shallow insurance penetration. (hazard context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.88 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -3.24 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.59 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.50 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.68 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.23 │ 70% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.74 │ -0.62 │ -0.50 │

│ Assets │ -1.09 │ -0.68 │ -0.26 │

│ Currency │ -1.23 │ -0.58 │ +0.08 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘