- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, TI, WHO, EEA) + Slovenian official (SURS, Bank of Slovenia, IMAD) + independent press (Balkan Insight, EUobserver).

- A small, wealthy, stable EU/eurozone democracy with strong institutions; 2026 brought an orderly, lawful change of government with a democratic-backsliding watch under the returning right.

- Standout features: strong institutions, sound banks, very low crime, against ageing demographics, German-supply-chain export concentration, and recurrent catastrophic flooding. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on political-narrative items.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A high-complexity export economy, sound banks, and euro membership, with German-supply-chain exposure the risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~66% GDP on a downward path with a ~2.8% deficit target, the IMF urging consolidation. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB - no own policy. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Euro membership. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - ~2.4-3% with mild food/services stickiness. (SURS; ECB)

Banking Stability - High capitalisation and low NPLs, fully recovered from the 2013 crisis. (Bank of Slovenia FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - A high-complexity export economy (pharma, autos, machinery), no resource curse, with deep German/Austrian supply-chain exposure. (OEC; IMAD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.35 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +4.35 │ 85% │

│ long │ +4.35 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong, EU-standard institutions with a slight downward drift. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Independent courts and an EU-standard, high WJP standing with modest erosion noted. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - SURS is credible and Eurostat-compliant. (SURS)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable and EU-absorptive, with procurement/staffing flags. (TI Slovenia)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~35th), with recurring political pressure on public media. (RSF 2025/2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.43 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +6.43 │ 80% │

│ long │ +6.43 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with strong liberties, against ageing demographics. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy that produced an orderly, lawful change of government in 2026, with high polarisation and a backsliding-risk watch under the returning right. (Balkan Insight)

Civil Liberties - Strong, with a watch under the new government. (WJP)

Treatment Non Citizens - Schengen and lawful, with the historical 'erased' issue largely resolved. (EC)

Social Cohesion - High trust and low inequality, with some political polarisation. (Eurostat)

Demographics - Low fertility (~1.58), a median age ~45, and pronounced ageing - a structural drag. (SURS; Eurostat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.38 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +3.38 │ 76% │

│ long │ +3.38 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliably Western-aligned NATO/EU member with no active conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Worsened +6 -> +5: Slovenia, alongside Czechia, blocked a joint EU statement condemning Israel's E1 West Bank settlement tender for 1,200 housing units on Aug 27, leaving only the foreign policy chief's own statement to be issued (bne IntelliNews, independently corroborated by Haaretz). Blocking EU consensus on a foreign-policy statement is a concrete divergence from the bloc's collective position, and a follow-up analysis frames it as part of a broader tilt.

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict in a stable neighbourhood. (general)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.98 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +5.98 │ 82% │

│ long │ +5.98 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent infrastructure, healthcare, and safety, against recurrent catastrophic flooding. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Transitional - alpine north plus Adriatic/Mediterranean heat-drought-wildfire and severe 2023 flooding. (EEA; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Universal single-insurer care, with co-pays abolished in 2024. (WHO Europe)

Infrastructure - Excellent and EU-funded, with flood-resilience upgrades underway. (EC)

Crime Safety - The lowest crime in the EU, with homicide ~0.5/100k. (Eurostat; GPI)

Disaster Insurance - A functioning flood/seismic market stress-tested by 2023, with a protection gap. (insurance press)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.12 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +3.95 │ 74% │

│ long │ +3.78 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.81 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +4.98 │ 81% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +4.95 │ 83% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.86 │ +4.84 │ +4.81 │

│ Assets │ +5.0 │ +4.98 │ +4.97 │

│ Currency │ +4.95 │ +4.95 │ +4.95 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘