- 2nd pass (2026-05-28, bias-corrected): Swedish primary sources (Polisen, BRÅ, SCB, SVT) confirm - shootings down hard, bombings the new vector, geographically concentrated; the country-average overstates personal risk outside affected suburbs. Inflation undershooting (~0.8% CPIF). No score change.

- Live-data refresh (2026-05-28): factors re-validated against diverse, independent sources (multilateral bodies + non-US/non-Anglophone press; state-self-reported data still excluded). Notes mark what moved.

- v2.0 source-discipline re-run applied; SCB (Statistics Sweden) is independent and uncompromised, so no entanglement discount was needed.

- Trade re-weighted 0.05 -> 0.17: diversified EU export economy with only indirect US-tariff/supply-chain exposure and no resource curse; a minor net drag versus the earlier version because trade is a small negative against strong economic fundamentals.

- Gang-violence country-average overstates personal risk for residents outside affected suburbs.

- Russia conflict-exposure is a genuine tail risk not fully captured by expected-value scoring.

- Sept 2026 election could shift political/social scores at the margin.

- Slant-balance audit: balanced; institutional and press strengths independently sourced (WJP, RWB).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A strong economic profile: very low debt, a disciplined fiscal framework, an independent Riksbank, and a low-oil-exposure energy mix. Trade is a small negative now carrying more weight. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~1.3% GDP; debt ~30% GDP (among the lowest in the developed world); post-1990s fiscal framework; rising but absorbable defense spend.

Monetary Independence - Riksbank strongly independent; credible framework.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - SEK not a reserve currency; neutral.

Inflation - Riksbank held at 1.75% (5th hold); CPIF 0.8% April 2026 (from 1.6%), headline -0.1% - UNDERSHOOTING the ~1.5% modeled, partly a food-VAT cut. Mild deflation watch for a strong, low-debt economy; score held +4, confidence eased.

Banking Stability - Well-capitalized majors; past Baltic-AML issues addressed; 2022-23 housing correction without systemic crisis.

Trade Actions Capacity - Strong, diversified EU-delegated export economy (engineering, pharma, telecom); only indirect exposure to US tariff volatility and supply-chain disruption; stable trade policy and no resource-curse dynamic. Mild near-term drag, neutral long-term.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.21 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +3.29 │ 78% │

│ long │ +3.37 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A genuinely excellent institutional baseline; the highest-confidence category in this assessment. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Top-5 globally (WJP); strong judicial independence; recent gang-related police/surveillance expansions via the normal democratic process.

Statistical Integrity - SCB highly regarded; no interference; near the top of indices.

Civil Service Capacity - Professional, independent; constitutionally protected agency independence (myndighetsoberoende).

Press Freedom - Top-5 RWB; world's oldest FOI act (1766); robust public and private media.

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.47 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +6.47 │ 80% │

│ long │ +6.47 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Striking: excellent institutions, but gang violence and immigration restrictiveness pull the social state near neutral. Long-term composite improves as the violence trend declines. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Violence │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Kristersson government stable since 2022; Sept 2026 election upcoming; SD rise within democratic norms.

Civil Liberties - Strong baseline; surveillance trajectory concerning (anonymous witnesses, expanded wiretapping, proposed military aid to police).

Treatment Non Citizens - From 1 June 2026 the work-permit salary floor rises to 90% of median; family reunification stricter - but the reform explicitly protects highly-skilled workers, so skilled professionals clear it easily. Score -1 hold; confidence up (Migrationsverket).

Social Violence - Swedish primary data (Polisen, BRÅ): shootings down hard (Q1 2026: 15 vs 39 in Q1 2025; 2025 homicides decade-low) but bombings are the new vector (189 detonations in 2025, +39%); concentrated in metro suburbs. The Anglophone 'Sweden = war zone' framing overstates risk for ordinary residents. Near -3/long -2 held.

Demographics - Immigration-cut growth slowdown; below-replacement fertility; integration challenges; skilled-labor shortages.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.50 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +0.53 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.57 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong alliance reliability (a credibility provider post-NATO accession) offset by direct Russia conflict-exposure tail risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - NATO member since 2024; deep Nordic-Baltic cooperation; building EU credibility as US reliability falls; leads NATO forward forces in Finland.

Conflict Involvement - Hybrid-threat tempo up: GNSS jamming surged (733 incidents YTD), UAV/undersea-cable incidents, explicit Baltic-island-grab warnings; defense at 2.8% GDP, Gotland remilitarized, conscription scaled up. Tail risk real, not base case; near -4/long -3 hold, confidence up (CEPA, Atlantic Council, gov.se).

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; no domestic capital controls; stable financial integration.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.11 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +1.29 │ 76% │

│ long │ +1.46 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent infrastructure and low disaster exposure; healthcare strong; crime the one complicating factor but still low by US/Mexico standards. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +3.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A high-latitude net beneficiary near/mid-term (top readiness, longer growing seasons, milder winters, forestry upside), with transition volatility and the AMOC tail tempering the long outlook. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - Universal single-payer; strong outcomes; some primary-care/specialist wait times.

Infrastructure - Excellent transport, world-leading broadband, low-carbon stable grid (nuclear/hydro), strong transit.

Crime Safety - Homicide ~1/100k (low by US/Mexico standard, high by Nordic standard); gang violence concentrated; most of the country very safe; trend improving.

Disaster Insurance - Low disaster exposure (minimal quake, no hurricanes); functional insurance; strong response capacity.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.95 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +3.86 │ 78% │

│ long │ +3.76 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.67 │ 77% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.61 │ 77% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.45 │ 78% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.64 │ +3.65 │ +3.67 │

│ Assets │ +3.56 │ +3.61 │ +3.66 │

│ Currency │ +3.45 │ +3.52 │ +3.59 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘