- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, UNAIDS, Freedom House, RSF, TI, HRW, ICJ) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Africa's last absolute monarchy (King Mswati III) with banned political parties - the June 2021 pro-democracy uprising was violently suppressed and the Jan 2023 assassination of activist/MP Thulani Maseko remains uninvestigated.

- Standout drags: entrenched repression (Freedom House 17/100), a near-term fiscal cliff (a ~21% SACU-revenue drop), the world's highest HIV prevalence (~26-27%) now exposed to US/PEPFAR cuts, and a rand peg removing any monetary buffer.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Peg-anchored low inflation and stable banking, against a SACU-driven fiscal cliff and concentration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt still moderate (~39-43% of GDP) but the deficit is widening sharply (to ~4.7% of GDP) on a ~21% SACU-revenue drop. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - The lilangeni is pegged 1:1 to the rand under the CMA - effectively imports SARB policy with no autonomy. (CMA/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The lilangeni is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate and anchored by the rand peg (~4%). (IMF Art IV 2025)

Banking Stability - Generally stable and CMA-anchored; stress is fiscal/external, not banking. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Heavy concentration on SACU transfers and sugar exports, with customs-revenue volatility a structural vulnerability. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.76 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.76 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.76 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Courts subordinate to the monarchy, weaponized security statutes, and a controlled press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Courts subordinate to the monarchy, with weaponized Public Order/Terrorism statutes and impunity for the Maseko killing and 2021 crackdown. (HRW WR2025/26; ICJ)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged with usable national accounts data, though capacity is limited. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional but weak, with service-delivery gaps and a falling corruption score (CPI ~23/100). (TI 2024; World Bank)

Press Freedom - Near-total monarchic control of broadcast and most media; criticism of the king is criminalized. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.56 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -2.56 │ 59% │

│ long │ -2.56 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Repression-enforced surface calm over unresolved 2021 grievances, with extreme HIV and inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Surface calm enforced by repression sits atop unresolved 2021 grievances and banned opposition - brittle rather than durable. (Freedom House 2025; ISS)

Civil Liberties - 'Not Free' (17/100) - assembly, expression, and association severely curtailed. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - No mass xenophobic crisis, but the opaque US-deportee deal and weak rule of law raise due-process concerns. (Reuters; HRW)

Social Cohesion - Among the world's highest inequality, plus the HIV burden and a pro-democracy/monarchy cleavage. (World Bank; IMF)

Demographics - A young population but ~26-27% adult HIV prevalence (world's highest) and ~58% youth unemployment are deep drags. (UNAIDS; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.19 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -3.03 │ 57% │

│ long │ -2.88 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Predictable and SACU-integrated, with no conflict but opportunistic alignment. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Predictable, SACU/CMA-integrated, and non-belligerent, but the transactional US-deportee deal signals opportunistic alignment. (Reuters)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict - the risk is internal repression rather than interstate war. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions exposure, broadly open under the CMA peg. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.97 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +2.97 │ 58% │

│ long │ +2.97 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A world-class HIV/ART success (now donor-funding-exposed), against drought and inequality. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Recurrent severe drought, heat, and rain-fed agriculture, with limited adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A genuine HIV/ART success (hit 95-95-95 early, incidence sharply down) but donor-dependent and now exposed to US funding cuts. (UNAIDS; CDC)

Infrastructure - Reasonable core networks with acknowledged gaps connecting underserved regions. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate ordinary crime; the bigger risk is state/political violence. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Drought exposure with thin penetration and now-tight fiscal headroom. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.01 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -1.12 │ 56% │

│ long │ -1.23 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.91 │ 58% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.92 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.69 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.97 │ -1.94 │ -1.91 │

│ Assets │ -0.92 │ -0.92 │ -0.91 │

│ Currency │ -0.69 │ -0.68 │ -0.67 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘