- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, FATF, OC Index, Freedom House, RSF, Afrobarometer) + international press.

- Africa's highest-income, strongly-governed democracy - the Oct 2025 runoff produced a second peaceful turnover in five years (Herminie unseated incumbent Ramkalawan).

- Standout features: strong governance and macro management (~5.8% growth, sub-2% inflation, debt cut to ~54% under an IMF EFF/RSF), against the world's highest per-capita heroin dependency (~10% of working-age), tourism/tuna concentration, and acute climate/sea-level exposure. Net positive.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Strong fiscal consolidation and low inflation on a floating rupee, against tourism/tuna concentration. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Strong post-COVID consolidation - a ~2.5% primary surplus, debt down to ~53.6% of GDP, all IMF targets met. (IMF EFF/RSF reviews 2025-26)

Monetary Independence - Genuine autonomy via the freely floating rupee (floated 2008), though a tiny, highly open economy limits effective independence. (Central Bank of Seychelles)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rupee is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and well-contained, under 2% in 2025. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalized with declining NPLs; off the FATF grey list. (CBS Financial Stability Report 2024; FATF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Extreme concentration in tourism (>55-70% of GDP/FX) and tuna, highly exposed to external shocks. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.26 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +2.26 │ 79% │

│ long │ +2.26 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong-for-region rule of law, credible data, a capable state, and a free press. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong for the region - independent courts oversaw clean, contested elections and orderly handovers. (Freedom House; 2025 runoff)

Statistical Integrity - Credible official statistics, fully IMF-engaged with met benchmarks. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable administration delivering Africa's top human-development outcomes, modest for a microstate. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Among the freer media environments in Africa, with pluralistic outlets. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.30 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +4.30 │ 67% │

│ long │ +4.30 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A consolidated democracy with two recent peaceful turnovers, eroded socially by addiction. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Two peaceful turnovers in five years (2020, 2025) confirm a consolidated, resilient democracy. (Al Jazeera 2025; Africa Center)

Civil Liberties - Broadly protected - rated 'Free'. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Generally fair; reliant on migrant labour with limited reported systemic abuse. (inference)

Social Cohesion - Materially eroded by the heroin epidemic (~10% of working-age dependent) and cost-of-living strain - top 2025 voter concerns. (Afrobarometer 2025; ADF)

Demographics - Stable, small (~100k) and highly urbanized, with drug dependency a structural workforce drag. (World Bank; OC Index)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.76 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +3.76 │ 70% │

│ long │ +3.76 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, non-aligned partner balancing India, the Gulf, and the West, conflict-free. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable, non-aligned partner balancing India, Gulf, and Western ties. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict; the late-2000s Somali-piracy threat has receded, though it remains on a maritime trafficking route. (OC Index)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions exposure, open account, cleared of FATF strategic deficiencies. (FATF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.03 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +5.03 │ 68% │

│ long │ +5.03 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among Africa's best healthcare and infrastructure, against acute climate/sea-level and drug-driven crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - An Indian-Ocean SIDS with sea-level/reef/coastal exposure, but the highest-income African state with relatively strong readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC SIDS)

Healthcare - Among Africa's best universal systems, but heavily burdened by the addiction crisis (a large methadone caseload). (WHO; Afrobarometer 2025)

Infrastructure - Good for the region, supporting a high-end tourism economy. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Elevated drug-driven crime (drug offences +41% 2022-23) despite low political violence. (OC Index)

Disaster Insurance - High climate exposure with limited penetration, partly offset by stronger fiscal headroom than peers. (inference; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.61 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.41 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.20 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.28 │ 69% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.12 │ 72% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.07 │ 75% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.33 │ +3.30 │ +3.28 │

│ Assets │ +3.14 │ +3.12 │ +3.10 │

│ Currency │ +3.07 │ +3.07 │ +3.07 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘