- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (UN/World Bank estimates, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, ACLED, ICG/CrisisWatch) + independent press; neither old-regime nor new-government framing used.

- Pivotal context: the Assad regime fell in December 2024; a transitional government under Ahmed al-Sharaa now governs with partial control, Western sanctions easing in 2025, and reconstruction beginning - amid deep fragility and sectarian-violence episodes. Data is fragmentary and confidence is low.

- Scored as strongly negative near-term with a genuine but highly uncertain recovery long-tail (near/long splits used); the asymmetric upside from the post-Assad opening and sanctions easing gives a positive outcome-distribution skew from a deeply negative base.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- Confidence refresh (2026-05-29): the post-Assad transition is well-documented by multilateral sources (UN Security Council, EU Council, US Congress, IMF) - sub-factor confidences raised and observability moves opaque->mixed as Syria opens to international scrutiny, though outcomes stay uncertain (positive skew retained).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed (declining) - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Official data is compromised, but a free press and courts still surface the truth. Scores lean on those independent channels, and the state is sliding toward opacity - the confidence here is capped and falling.

A war-devastated economy and collapsed currency, with sanctions easing and reconstruction the uncertain upside. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -5.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -5.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -4.50 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - GDP about a third of pre-war, but IDA arrears cleared and the World Bank re-engaged, with a huge reconstruction need. (World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A collapsed, heavily-dollarized pound and a central bank rebuilding. (Syria Direct; Al Jazeera)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No reserve role, with minimal FX reserves. (Reuters)

Inflation - Very high and collapse/subsidy-removal-driven, stabilizing later. (Syrian Observer)

Banking Stability - A shattered system reconnecting as sanctions lift. (House of Commons Library)

Trade Actions Capacity - War-damaged oil and agriculture plus a captagon-trade legacy, against 2025 Gulf/Turkey investment commitments. (CRS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.97 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -4.75 │ 62% │

│ long │ -3.53 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transitional government building from a totalitarian collapse, with collapsed data and an improving-from-the-floor press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 40% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A transitional government with no established rule of law yet and open transitional-justice questions. (UN CoI; Atlantic Council)

Statistical Integrity - Collapsed and largely absent - insufficient reliable data. (BTI 2026)

Civil Service Capacity - Improved -7 -> -6: the Kurdish-led SDF formally dissolved and integrated into the Syrian military, announced by commander Mazloum Abdi at the presidential palace in Damascus on Aug 25 (Reuters, AP and FT all filed original reporting). This is the single best-corroborated institutional item in the region this window and it removes the largest remaining non-state armed formation from the map.

Press Freedom - Post-Assad transition has loosened the totalitarian media clamp and the country is under heavy international scrutiny (UN/EU/US engagement); still restrictive and unconsolidated. (Security Council Report; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.27 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -6.19 │ 55% │

│ long │ -6.11 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fragile transitional government with partial control and sectarian-violence episodes. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Partial control, 2025 coastal and Druze sectarian killings, Kurdish-SDF integration talks, and Israeli incursions - deeply fragile. (HRW; ACLED; Al Jazeera)

Civil Liberties - The Assad-era totalitarian apparatus is dismantled under the Al-Sharaa transitional government (UN de-listed Sharaa/HTS Dec 2025; EU lifted most sanctions 2025-26); liberties remain restricted and ISIS attacks persist (1 May Damascus attack), but markedly less closed than under Assad. (UNSC; EU Council)

Treatment Non Citizens - Refugee-producing, with early 2025 returns beginning but called tentative. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Deeply fractured along Sunni/Alawite/Druze/Kurd lines, with war trauma and identity-based killings. (HRW; ACLED)

Demographics - Mass displacement and brain-drain, with returns beginning. (UNHCR; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.86 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -5.91 │ 63% │

│ long │ -4.96 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A new government courting the Gulf/Turkey/West with sanctions easing, against residual conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - The normalization track produced verifiable engagement: UN Secretary-General Guterres visited Syria July 26 - the first UNSG visit since 2009 - as al-Sharaa said Syria is negotiating a security agreement with Israel with multi-country participation (the talks are reported fact; the pledged outcomes are stated intent, not scored), and the US State-Sponsor-of-Terrorism removal process continues its 45-day congressional review (Al Jazeera, Reuters, Haaretz - independent/wire, multiply corroborated). Eased 0 -> 1 on the realized diplomatic re-engagement; confidence up; positive skew retained.

Conflict Involvement - Improved near -8 -> -7 on the SDF dissolution and integration (Aug 25, Reuters/AP/FT), which ends the country's second front by agreement rather than by force. Held short of a larger move by fresh fighting in Suwayda on Sept 1, where the Druze-led National Guard under al-Hijri continues to oppose Damascus and casualty counts are disputed between SOHR and the state wire. Long held -5. Positive skew retained.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Major verified relief: on July 8 the US announced it will remove Syria's decades-old 'state sponsor of terrorism' designation (effective in 45 days absent a congressional block), a large sanctions/investment-climate opening for the al-Sharaa transitional government (Al Jazeera, ABC News - independent/tilt). Improved near -4 -> -2; long -1 -> 0; confidence up; positive skew retained.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.76 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.12 │ 67% │

│ long │ -1.48 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

War-destroyed infrastructure and a collapsed health system, with severe drought. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Severe drought (a conflict trigger), water scarcity, extreme heat, with readiness destroyed by war. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - War-devastated and collapsed, rebuilding. (HRW; UN)

Infrastructure - Power, water, and housing in ruins, with a massive reconstruction need. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Sectarian violence and lawless zones, improving unevenly in parts. (ACLED; HRW)

Disaster Insurance - A negligible market - insufficient reliable data. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.55 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -7.57 │ 63% │

│ long │ -7.60 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.33 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.05 │ 61% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.54 │ 61% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.41 │ -5.87 │ -5.33 │

│ Assets │ -5.76 │ -5.05 │ -4.34 │

│ Currency │ -5.54 │ -4.64 │ -3.73 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘