- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics built from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, UNHCR/OCHA, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, Transparency International, ICG, ACLED) + international wire (Reuters/AFP/AP/Al Jazeera); Chadian state media EXCLUDED there, economics IMF-validated.

- A hereditary military regime: Idriss Deby ruled 1990-2021; on his death his son Mahamat Deby took power by junta, then won a contested May 2024 election (~61%) that his own PM-rival Succes Masra rejected as rigged - a dynastic succession dressed as a transition.

- Standout drags: a Sudan-war refugee influx exceeding ~1.2M in the east (one of the world's largest), the Lake Chad Basin Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency, and among the world's worst poverty (~84% multidimensionally poor) and climate exposure; the 2025 French military withdrawal removes a long-standing security backstop and opens a Russia-courting drift.

- Currency anchor: the Central African CFA franc (CEMAC), hard-pegged to the euro under a French convertibility guarantee - monetary stability without monetary sovereignty; not a reserve currency.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A peg-anchored, low-inflation but oil-dependent and very low-income economy on an IMF program, with deep fiscal fragility and a resource-curse profile. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - On a 2025 IMF ECF arrangement with debt stabilizing near ~32% of GDP and a narrowing non-oil deficit, but heavily oil-revenue-dependent with substantial downside risks. (IMF 2024 Art IV; 2025 ECF/DSA)

Monetary Independence - No own monetary policy, but the CEMAC CFA franc's hard euro peg with a French convertibility guarantee delivers credible stability in a fragile region. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is a regional currency, not an international reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored near the CEMAC norm, though food-price shocks from conflict and refugee strain add volatility. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Part of the COBAC-supervised CEMAC system - shallow, low credit penetration, but peg-backed. (BEAC; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Acute resource-curse profile: oil is ~90% of exports via a single Cameroon pipeline; landlocked, undiversified, minimal industrial base. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.0 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.11 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.22 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A personalized dynastic regime with weak rule of law, pervasive corruption, thin state capacity, and a repressed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 62% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Personalized military rule with no judicial independence and entrenched patronage corruption (TI CPI ~21/100, among the world's worst). (Transparency International; Freedom House; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - Weak capacity but IMF-engaged on macro data; political and conflict-zone data unreliable. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-laden and thinly resourced, with little reach into conflict and refugee-hosting peripheries. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Restricted press with arrests of journalists - three jailed in 2025 over alleged Wagner ties. (RSF; HRW)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A dynastic succession over chronic instability, a vast refugee influx, and acute climate-and-conflict stress on social cohesion. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Mahamat Deby inherited power by junta after his father's 2021 death and won a contested 2024 vote rejected as rigged by his rival - dynastic continuity, not a stable settlement. (HRW; Al Jazeera; Reuters)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Not Free'; the 2022 'Black Thursday' protest crackdown killed scores, with continued detentions. (Freedom House; HRW; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts over ~1.2M Sudanese refugees plus Boko-Haram-displaced - relatively open borders but at a breaking point with severe underfunding. (UNHCR; OCHA)

Social Cohesion - North-south and ethnic cleavages, herder-farmer conflict, and Lake Chad insurgency spillover strain an already fragile social fabric. (ICG; ACLED)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a potential dividend but currently a strain given ~84% multidimensional poverty. (World Bank; UNDP MPI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.30 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.30 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.30 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A former French security anchor drifting after the 2025 troop withdrawal, with an active internal insurgency and Sudan-war spillover. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Ended the French military presence in 2025, removing a long-standing backstop and opening a Russia-courting drift, with ambiguous Sudan-conflict alignment (alleged RSF/UAE conduit). (ICG; CRS; Reuters)

Conflict Involvement - Worsened near -6 -> -7: Sudan's armed forces conducted their FIRST drone strikes on an RSF convoy inside Chadian territory, near Mourdi, prompting Chad to raise its alert status and move roughly 100 armoured vehicles to Tine (ISW Africa File, Sept 3). A neighbouring state's air force striking inside Chad over its alleged RSF support converts a refugee-and-proxy exposure into direct territorial violation. Long HELD at -5; the underlying driver, Chad's role as an RSF supply route, was already priced as structural. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.8.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned; operates within the CEMAC regional FX framework with its convertibility guarantee. (BEAC; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.40 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.25 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's harshest physical-risk profiles: extreme climate exposure, near-absent healthcare, minimal infrastructure, and conflict-zone insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 74% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 68% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-5 - severe Sahel drought, desertification, Lake Chad collapse, recurrent flood, least-prepared. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Among the world's weakest systems - roughly 3.7 doctors per 100,000, minimal services outside N'Djamena, strained further by refugee inflows. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Landlocked with very low electrification, sparse paved roads, and dependence on a single export pipeline through Cameroon. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - High insecurity from insurgency, banditry, and intercommunal violence, concentrated in the Lake Chad and eastern border zones. (ACLED; OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration against high drought/flood exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.85 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -6.95 │ 59% │

│ long │ -7.05 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.62 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.44 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.43 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.57 │ -4.60 │ -4.62 │

│ Assets │ -3.41 │ -3.44 │ -3.47 │

│ Currency │ -2.43 │ -2.48 │ -2.52 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘