- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF ECF/Art IV, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, BTI) + international press (Reuters, AFP, France 24, Al Jazeera) and Africa Center/ICG on the constitutional change and Sahel spillover.

- A 58-year family dynasty entrenched: a 2024-25 shift to a parliamentary system let Faure Gnassingbe become President of the Council of Ministers - indefinitely renewable, criticized as a 'constitutional coup' - met by 2025 protests and a deadly crackdown; steady ~5.3% growth and an on-track IMF program; the WAEMU CFA franc is pegged to the euro.

- Standout features: an indefinitely entrenched Gnassingbe dynasty via the 2024 'constitutional coup'; the strategic Lome deep-water port and phosphate base; and rising-but-still-contained jihadist spillover into the northern Savanes region.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Steady ~5.3% growth, low peg-anchored inflation, and an on-track IMF program, with elevated debt and a still-narrow base the constraints. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Consolidating under a 2024 IMF ECF (first review passed) from a high debt level (~67-70% of GDP), targeting the WAEMU 3% deficit norm. (IMF Dec-2024)

Monetary Independence - The CFA-franc euro peg delivers credibility but zero autonomy under a France-guaranteed, BCEAO-pooled regime. (BCEAO/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~2-3%) - a structural strength. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Stable within WAEMU, with sovereign-exposure concentration the main watch-item. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - The Lome deep-water port is a regional transhipment hub and phosphate a key export, with a local-processing push; offset by a narrow commodity base. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.40 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.63 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.86 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable macro/statistical capacity, but rule of law and the press are squeezed by entrenched single-family rule. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak and politically subordinate - a 2024-25 constitutional rewrite re-engineered the executive to entrench Gnassingbe, with courts deferential. (V-Dem; Freedom House; BTI)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged through program reviews. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Moderate, with patronage and capacity gaps. (World Bank/BTI)

Press Freedom - Declining - RSF 121/180 in 2025, with outlet suspensions (Liberte, L'Alternative) and state-advertising leverage driving self-censorship. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.10 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.10 │ 67% │

│ long │ -2.10 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A 58-year dynasty entrenched indefinitely by the 2024 reform, met by 2025 protests and a deadly crackdown. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2024-25 switch to a parliamentary system made Gnassingbe President of the Council of Ministers - indefinitely renewable, an opposition-branded 'constitutional coup'; controlled but legitimacy-thin with succession-tail risk. (Al Jazeera; France 24; Africa Center)

Civil Liberties - Repressive - mid-2025 anti-government protests in Lome were met by a crackdown that killed at least five, with arrests and protest bans routine. (Africanews; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic abuse of foreigners; northern displacement and Sahel-refugee inflows are the main strain. (UNHCR; observed)

Social Cohesion - A long-standing north-south and ethnic cleavage overlaid on dynastic rule. (ICG/BTI)

Demographics - Very young and growing - a dividend with a jobs strain. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.48 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -2.59 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.70 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic ECOWAS/Western partner straddling the Sahel, with rising-but-contained northern jihadist spillover. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - An ECOWAS member and Western/EU partner, but pragmatically warm toward the Sahel juntas (AES) - a hedging posture. (observed; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - Rising JNIM-linked attacks in the northern Savanes region under a state of emergency - on an upward trend but casualties still below neighbors. (ACLED; ICG; Security Council Report)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open WAEMU/CFA regime, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.59 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -0.59 │ 72% │

│ long │ -0.59 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The strong Lome port anchors logistics, against coastal-erosion/flood exposure, a weak health system, and northern insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Coastal erosion on a very short low shore, northern drought, flooding, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak and underfunded, with low coverage. (World Bank/WHO)

Infrastructure - The Lome deep-water/transhipment port is a regional asset; inland roads, power, and the north lag. (AfDB; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate in the south; the Savanes north carries jihadist and travel-advisory risk. (observed; OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood/erosion exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.12 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -2.22 │ 61% │

│ long │ -2.32 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.59 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.36 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.26 │ 71% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.57 │ -1.58 │ -1.59 │

│ Assets │ -0.44 │ -0.36 │ -0.29 │

│ Currency │ +0.26 │ +0.39 │ +0.52 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘