- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Article IV, World Bank, WJP, RSF, V-Dem) + Thai official (Bank of Thailand, NESDC) + independent/regional press (Bangkok Post, Nikkei Asia).

- Media constraint: Thai domestic outlets operate under the lese-majeste (Article 112) and defamation laws; governance/politics/press were scored on observable ACTIONS (court rulings, sentences, prosecution counts) cross-checked against international rights monitors, not domestic framing.

- Standout drags: chronic political/judicial instability, restricted civil liberties, an active border conflict, and a hard demographic/belonging ceiling.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank and a diversified export/tourism base, against slow growth, deflation risk, narrowing fiscal space, and very high household debt. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~65% GDP and approaching the ceiling; space narrowing; 2025 stimulus targeted; the IMF urges consolidation. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The Bank of Thailand runs a credible managed float; recent easing is data-driven but coincides with government pressure to cut - genuine independence with friction. (BoT; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The baht is an own currency, not a reserve currency. (IMF)

Inflation - Headline near zero/slightly negative (~-0.1% in 2025), below target; a deflationary risk slightly caps the positive. (BoT; IMF)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised and judged resilient, but household debt ~90% GDP and an impaired credit channel are material risks. (IMF 2025 Art IV; BoT)

Trade Actions Capacity - A diversified auto/electronics export base plus tourism, no resource curse; the US reciprocal tariff settled at 19% (off a threatened 36%); a strong baht and over-reliance on exports the offsets. (USTR; BoT)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.47 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.45 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.42 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable economic data and a competent central bank, against a politicized judiciary and a constrained press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP 77/143, below the regional average; the judiciary is repeatedly used to remove elected PMs and dissolve parties - politicized on political matters, though commercial law functions. (WJP 2025; HRW)

Statistical Integrity - Economic data is IMF-validated and usable. (IMF 2025 Art IV; BoT)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent central bank/technocracy with uneven delivery and rural gaps. (IMF; WJP)

Press Freedom - RSF 85/180 (best in ASEAN) but the lese-majeste law (15-year sentences) hangs over every outlet, forcing self-censorship. (RSF 2025; OHCHR)

Civil-Military Relations - A standing guardianship role written into the constitutional order. The 2014 coup produced a military-drafted constitution whose appointed senate shaped government formation for a full transitional period. The army retains an independent political position and a record of twelve successful coups in the modern era. Elected governments operate inside limits the army set.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.62 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -0.62 │ 72% │

│ long │ -0.62 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic instability and restricted civil liberties; easy lawful entry but a hard belonging ceiling and a serious demographic drag. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ -2.50 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The PM was removed by the Constitutional Court in Aug-2025 (the fifth PM ousted by judges since 2008); monarchy/military influence persists - clearly volatile. (Time; Al Jazeera 2025)

Civil Liberties - 285+ lese-majeste prosecutions since 2014, with multi-decade sentences and free-speech imprisonments into 2026. (HRW 2026; OHCHR)

Treatment Non Citizens - LTR/Elite/retirement visas give easy lawful entry on income/wealth, but with no path to citizenship/belonging and work restrictions - a hard ceiling. (Thai visa rules)

Social Cohesion - A persistent southern (Malay-Muslim) insurgency plus deep political/regional polarization. (HRW)

Demographics - Ageing fast with fertility ~1.0-1.2 - 'old before rich,' a real long-term drag. (UN; IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.60 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -2.30 │ 74% │

│ long │ -3.01 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable-but-hedging US ally with an active border conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A US treaty ally that hedges China heavily - reliable but non-aligned. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - Held at near -4 with confidence up 0.78 -> 0.8: THIRD consecutive clean verification. No kinetic border event in-window; the ASEAN Defence Observer Team actively verified crossings (Poipet/Stung Bot, Aug 20) and recirculated 'fresh clash' material was again debunked old footage. The dispute remains legal-diplomatic (UNCLOS conciliation ongoing, no in-window procedural milestone).

Sanctions Capital Controls - A relatively open capital account; the BoT tightened baht monitoring in 2025 but with no hard controls. (BoT; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.32 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.13 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.06 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Standout affordable universal healthcare and decent core infrastructure, against serious flood/heat exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Bangkok delta subsidence/sea-level, flooding (2011), drought, coastal exposure, moderate readiness. (WB CCDR; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Strong, affordable, with universal coverage and a medical-tourism hub. (IMF; observed)

Infrastructure - Bangkok strong (transit, airports, telecom); rural areas uneven. (observed)

Crime Safety - Moderate; generally safe for residents and visitors. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Material flood exposure; the market is developing post-2011. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.91 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +1.69 │ 71% │

│ long │ +1.48 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.55 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.77 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.27 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.06 │ -0.30 │ -0.55 │

│ Assets │ +0.84 │ +0.77 │ +0.69 │

│ Currency │ +1.27 │ +1.25 │ +1.22 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘