- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, FIDH, Carnegie, Jamestown) + international press (RFE/RL, Eurasianet); state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- An entrenched personalist autocracy - President Rahmon (in power since 1992) is engineering a dynastic handover to his son Rustam Emomali, with a 2024-2025 cadre purge clearing the path ahead of the 2027 election.

- Standout drags: the world's most remittance-dependent economy (~45% of GDP, almost all from Russia, exposed to a post-Crocus migrant crackdown), GBAO/Pamiri repression, escalating Afghan-border (ISKP) attacks, and a Rogun mega-dam the World Bank won't yet fund.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Decent headline macro but the world's most remittance-dependent base, with a large Rogun contingent liability. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt fell to ~25% of GDP (end-2024) on strong revenue and growth, with an IMF PCI on track, but Rogun is a large contingent liability. (IMF 2025 Art IV; 3rd PCI Review)

Monetary Independence - A managed somoni with periodic devaluations - policy is tightly state-directed and remittance/ruble-driven. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The somoni is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~2.8% y/y (Sept 2025), within the central bank's target band. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Rapid 2025 asset growth, but a legacy of bank failures, state direction, and a thin, low-trust system. (IMF; State Dept ICS 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - A narrow base (remittances, aluminum, gold) with reserves ~8 months of imports; Rogun electricity export is the long-bet but unfinanced. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.17 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -0.17 │ 58% │

│ long │ -0.17 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A personalist autocracy with no judicial independence, pervasive corruption, and jailed/exiled journalists. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A personalist autocracy with no judicial independence, pervasive corruption, and prosecutions weaponized against dissent and the Pamiri minority. (Freedom House 2025; HRW 2025)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged economic data (a PCI program) but opaque political/social reporting. (IMF; V-Dem)

Civil Service Capacity - Clientelist and purge-prone (a 2024-25 Interior Ministry purge), with weak delivery in a poor, rural state. (Eurasianet; Jamestown)

Press Freedom - RSF ~153-155/180 - journalists jailed or exiled, with pervasive self-censorship. (RSF 2025/2026; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.90 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -4.90 │ 55% │

│ long │ -4.90 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Repression-bought near-term calm against a contested dynastic succession and Pamiri persecution. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ -1.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Repression buys near-term calm, but an unfinished father-to-son dynastic succession makes the medium term a significant fracture risk. (Jamestown; Eurasianet)

Civil Liberties - Among the world's least free - assembly, religion, and dissent crushed, with transnational repression abroad. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a destination, with severe treatment of internal minorities/exiles; mirror risk: its own ~1m migrants face a xenophobic crackdown in Russia. (HRW 2025; RFE/RL)

Social Cohesion - Systematic GBAO/Pamiri repression - ~40 killed and 200+ detained after the 2022 crackdown, with deaths of Pamiri prisoners reported in 2025. (HRW 2025; FIDH)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing, but mass labour emigration and high poverty/dependency undercut the dividend. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.31 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -4.04 │ 57% │

│ long │ -4.76 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Russia-dependent with growing Chinese inroads, and escalating Afghan-border attacks. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A CSTO member structurally dependent on Russia (remittances, a base, security guarantees) with growing Chinese inroads - not autonomous. (Carnegie; Jamestown)

Conflict Involvement - Escalating cross-border ISKP attacks from Afghanistan (drone strikes killed workers in Nov 2024 and Nov 2025) with internal GBAO unrest a second front. (Al Jazeera; Jamestown)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not directly sanctioned but acutely exposed to Russia spillover (sanctions, ruble, migrant expulsions), with a managed account. (IMF; HRW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.76 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -2.76 │ 57% │

│ long │ -2.76 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Glacier-loss-driven winter energy crises, the region's poorest health system, and a major dam tail risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 45% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A Central Asia water tower - rapid glacier loss threatens regional water; GLOF, flood, low readiness, the poorest in the region. (IPCC AR6 cryosphere; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - The region's poorest health system - low spend, heavy reliance on remittance-funded and out-of-pocket care. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - ~95% hydro-dependent power with chronic winter shortages; Rogun could double generation but is years and ~$6.4bn from completion. (IEA; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate everyday crime but elevated political-violence and border-security risk. (soft/indirect)

Disaster Insurance - High seismic, GLOF/landslide, and flood hazard with near-zero penetration, plus a major dam-safety tail risk at Rogun. (seismic-hazard literature; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.54 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -3.76 │ 53% │

│ long │ -3.99 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.88 │ 56% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.44 │ 57% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.62 │ 57% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.38 │ -3.63 │ -3.88 │

│ Assets │ -2.35 │ -2.44 │ -2.53 │

│ Currency │ -1.62 │ -1.66 │ -1.69 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘