- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, Freedom House, RSF, V-Dem, Crisis Group) + exile/international press (RFE/RL, turkmen.news, Eurasianet); state media EXCLUDED.

- Data limitation: extraordinarily opaque - even IMF figures rely on authorities' data and most social indicators come from exile media; confidence is deliberately reduced across the board and no dramatic single-source claim is encoded as fact.

- Standout drags: one of the world's most closed/repressive states under a Berdimuhamedov dynastic duopoly, a captive single-buyer (China) gas economy behind a ~5-6x black-market manat gap and strict capital controls, and RSF near-bottom (173rd).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Low headline debt but a captive single-buyer gas model behind a rationed, non-convertible currency. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 45% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Very low public debt (~3.6% of GDP, 2024) and a current-account surplus, but opaque off-budget funds and a poor fiscal-transparency record. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The manat is fixed at 3.5/USD since 2015 with a multiple-rate regime; the central bank has no autonomy and FX is administratively rationed. (IMF; Eurasianet)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The manat is not a reserve currency and is non-convertible. (definitional)

Inflation - The IMF reports sharp disinflation (~1.1% in early 2025), but the official series is widely doubted given suppressed prices and shortages. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - A state-dominated, largely closed banking system with heavy FX rationing and little independent visibility. (IMF; trade.gov)

Trade Actions Capacity - World's 4th-largest gas reserves but a captive single-buyer model (China ~80%+), with TAPI essentially stalled. (IMF; Eurasianet; The Diplomat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.72 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -1.72 │ 54% │

│ long │ -1.72 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's least-free states, with near-total data opacity and an information desert. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Among the world's least-free - no judicial independence, systemic corruption, and a total absence of political rights. (Freedom House 2025/26 'Not Free')

Statistical Integrity - One of the most data-opaque countries on earth - economic data IMF-admitted but unverifiable, most social statistics absent. (IMF; V-Dem)

Civil Service Capacity - A patronage-and-loyalty bureaucracy around a personality cult, with purges and weak delivery outside showcase projects. (Freedom House; Crisis Group)

Press Freedom - RSF 173/180 (2026), last globally on political context - virtually no independent media and heavy foreign-internet blocking. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.33 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -7.33 │ 57% │

│ long │ -7.33 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Totalitarian near-term stability over enforced homogeneity, food shortages, and out-migration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Repression delivers near-term surface stability under the dynastic duopoly, but an unaccountable two-headed succession and economic stress make the long horizon brittle. (Freedom House; Crisis Group)

Civil Liberties - Almost no freedom of movement, assembly, religion, or expression, with reports of forced loyalty rituals. (Freedom House 2025; CIVICUS)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a migrant destination; foreigners face severe movement/exit controls, and emigration itself is restricted. (Freedom House; RFE/RL)

Social Cohesion - Enforced homogeneity and a personality cult mask grievances, with food shortages and rolled-back subsidies adding strain. (Freedom House; Borgen)

Demographics - Relatively young but with heavy out-migration of working-age citizens and unreliable census data. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.57 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -4.21 │ 52% │

│ long │ -4.84 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An isolationist 'positive neutral' reliable only as a gas supplier to China, with draconian capital controls. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A 'positively neutral' non-aligned isolationist, reliable only as a gas supplier to China, with no real alliance commitments. (Crisis Group; The Diplomat)

Conflict Involvement - Largely avoids external conflict despite an Afghanistan border, insulated by neutrality. (Crisis Group)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned, but among the world's most restrictive capital-control/FX-rationing regimes, making repatriation extremely difficult. (IMF; trade.gov)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.43 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -1.43 │ 56% │

│ long │ -1.43 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Desert heat and acute water stress, with gas-funded showcase projects over decaying provincial utilities. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 45% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme desert heat, acute water scarcity (Amu Darya/Aral), aridification, very low readiness and opaque governance. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - Life expectancy ~70 but a documented public-health crisis, official denial of outbreaks, and a collapsed information system. (WHO data; Open Society) - low confidence

Infrastructure - Lavish gas-funded Ashgabat showcase projects against decaying provincial utilities and rolled-back subsidies. (Eurasianet; Borgen)

Crime Safety - Low reported street crime in a pervasive police state - figures are state-controlled and unverifiable. (soft/indirect)

Disaster Insurance - Seismic exposure (Ashgabat on a major fault) with negligible private insurance penetration. (seismic-hazard literature)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.81 │ 48% │

│ mid │ -3.06 │ 48% │

│ long │ -3.31 │ 48% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.91 │ 54% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.50 │ 54% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.92 │ 55% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.47 │ -4.69 │ -4.91 │

│ Assets │ -3.42 │ -3.50 │ -3.58 │

│ Currency │ -2.92 │ -2.95 │ -2.98 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘