- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, CBTT, Freedom House, RSF, InSight Crime, Migration Policy Institute) + international and Trinidadian press.

- The wealthiest-per-capita Caribbean economy on oil/gas, cushioned by a ~US$6.4bn Heritage & Stabilisation Fund, but facing structural gas decline, a stalled diversification, chronic FX shortages draining reserves, and severe violent crime.

- Standout drags: declining gas output and stalled diversification, a decades-low ~5.4-months FX reserve cover, record-high gang violence (a late-2024 state of emergency), and an acutely volatile Venezuela border.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A wealthy energy economy with low inflation and a sovereign buffer, against structural gas decline and FX rationing. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~5.5% of GDP (FY25) narrowing to ~4.6%, debt ~68% (public-sector ~84%), but a US$6.38bn Heritage & Stabilisation Fund is a sizeable buffer. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The TTD is a de-facto USD-managed rate; defending it drains reserves and produces chronic FX rationing - limited true autonomy. (IMF 2026)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The TTD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and stable (~2.4% end-2025) - a genuine strength. (CBTT)

Banking Stability - Broadly stable and well-capitalised, but heavy bank/insurer exposure to sovereign debt and rising household indebtedness are flagged. (CBTT Financial Stability Report)

Trade Actions Capacity - Highly concentrated in oil/gas/LNG/petrochemicals with declining gas feedstock; diversification is nascent and slow. (IMF 2026)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.28 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -0.14 │ 75% │

│ long │ -0.01 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning democracy and usable data, with persistent corruption and journalist-safety concerns. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A functioning parliamentary democracy and courts, but persistent official corruption and organized-crime penetration weigh. (Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - CSO/CBTT data are usable and IMF-engaged, though the CSO has faced timeliness/capacity criticism. (IMF; CBTT)

Civil Service Capacity - Reasonable capacity for the region, but bureaucratic and FX-allocation frictions impede the non-energy economy. (IMF 2026)

Press Freedom - Vibrant media, but RSF flags deteriorating journalist safety (no witness-protection, self-censorship); rank fell ~13 to 32nd. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.69 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +1.76 │ 69% │

│ long │ +1.83 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable two-party system under SOE-era civil-liberties strain, with an ethnic cleavage and migrant-crackdown. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The UNC's Persad-Bissessar won a decisive majority over the PNM in Apr 2025 - an orderly transfer in a stable two-party system. (Newsday; Atlantic Council)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Free', but repeated states of emergency with warrantless search/arrest powers raise real concerns. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A sharp hardening toward Venezuelan migrants - work permits cut from ~4,275 (2024) to 757 (2025), deportation orders, threatened 'mass deportation'. (Migration Policy Institute)

Social Cohesion - An Afro-/Indo-Trinidadian ethnic-political cleavage plus ~180 territorial gangs fuel violence and polarized politics. (InSight Crime)

Demographics - A relatively favourable structure, but skilled emigration and energy dependence cloud the long run. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.33 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -0.10 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.13 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A US-aligned democracy on the front line of US-Venezuela tensions, with OFAC-dependent cross-border gas. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable US-aligned CARICOM democracy that has tacked closer to the US on Venezuela, but the abrupt Venezuela rupture shows regional volatility. (Atlantic Council)

Conflict Involvement - Not a combatant, but on the front line of US-Venezuela Caribbean tensions and arms/migrant spillover, with a Venezuela diplomatic rupture. (Migration Policy Institute)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions on T&T, but its key Dragon gas project depends on OFAC licensing (revoked, then a 6-month license Oct 2025); FX rationing acts like soft controls. (Newsday; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.15 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +0.52 │ 70% │

│ long │ +1.20 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Below the main hurricane belt and relatively developed, against record gang violence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A higher-income, lower-hurricane-frequency SIDS, but coastal/SLR plus ecosystem stress, with an oil economy limiting transition readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A public system with broad coverage and higher per-capita spend than peers, with quality/wait-time gaps and a private tier. (general)

Infrastructure - Relatively developed (energy, roads, telecoms) but FX shortages and ageing energy assets constrain investment. (IMF 2026)

Crime Safety - 2024 was the deadliest year on record (~614-624 homicides); a Dec-2024 SOE drove a ~44% drop in 2025, but violence is structurally high and gang-driven. (InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - Lower catastrophe exposure than hurricane-belt peers, an insurable market with industrial/energy-accident tail risk. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.66 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.78 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.90 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.59 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.35 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.11 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.33 │ +0.46 │ +0.59 │

│ Assets │ +0.17 │ +0.35 │ +0.54 │

│ Currency │ +0.11 │ +0.31 │ +0.52 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘