- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, CPJ, TI, ICG); Tunisian state media EXCLUDED there, with economics admitted via IMF/World Bank.

- A democratic reversal: the president's 2021 self-coup dismantled the post-2011 democracy, packed the judiciary, and jailed the opposition, atop an economic crisis and a stalled IMF deal.

- Standout drags: democratic backsliding, debt distress with a stalled IMF deal, an anti-migrant campaign, and severe water scarcity; relatively safe streets are a mild offset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Debt distress with a stalled IMF deal and central-bank deficit financing. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -4.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Held at near -5 with a material gap flagged: the 2026 budget assumes $60/bbl oil against ~$90 actual at window close - a war-driven import-bill hole - while parliament keeps rejecting Finance Ministry proposals and government growth projections (3.3%) run well above the IMF's 2.1% (TIMEP - reform tilt; the oil arithmetic is checkable). Confidence held.

Monetary Independence - The central bank pushed into direct deficit financing under fiscal dominance, with statutory independence eroded. (IMF; independent press)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - A managed dinar with no international standing and FX restrictions. (IMF)

Inflation - Off a ~10% peak, easing slowly to mid-single digits, still elevated. (IMF WEO)

Banking Stability - Fragile, with heavy sovereign-debt exposure crowding out private credit. (World Bank; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Declined phosphates plus textiles/tourism/olive oil and remittances, with a chronic trade deficit and weak growth. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.12 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.73 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.34 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A dismantled rule of law and a sharply declining press, with usable economic data. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Held at -6 with the pattern extended: Saied framed the outages as sabotage ('the state will not stand idly by while anyone seeks to harass citizens') and criminal investigations were opened against civil servants on the electricity file - conspiracy attribution and scapegoating in place of policy, consistent with the level already scored (TIMEP - reform tilt, direction; the parliamentary session of July 27 is fact). Confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Economic data is IMF-engaged and usable; political data is opaque. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A bloated wage bill, capable but strained and politicised. (IMF; BTI)

Press Freedom - A sharp post-2021 RSF fall, with a decree jailing journalists for 'false news'. (RSF 2026; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.04 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -3.04 │ 58% │

│ long │ -3.04 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Consolidated one-man rule, a rights reversal, and an anti-migrant campaign. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at near -5 with confidence up 0.78 -> 0.8: blackout-driven protests entered a second month, a new opposition movement (Nafas) led Tunis demonstrations Aug 20, and police swept activists' homes with at least one arrest Aug 21 (Al Jazeera/wire). Sustained, organized, met with targeted repression; consistent with the July cut to -5.

Civil Liberties - Held at -7: the Nafas activist sweep and arrest (Aug 21) is the booked pattern of targeted repression under Saied, not a new tier.

Treatment Non Citizens - A transit country, with a 2023-onward anti-sub-Saharan campaign, desert expulsions, and documented abuse. (HRW; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - Economic despair, mass boat emigration, anti-migrant scapegoating, and polarisation. (BTI; ICG)

Demographics - Relatively young but with severe youth brain-drain eroding the dividend. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.65 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.85 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.05 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Drifting from the West, with border-spillover and migration pressure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Drifting from the West - an EU-migration-deal partner, Gulf/Algeria-leaning - transactional. (ECFR; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - No direct war, with Libya-border spillover and migration pressure. (ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Persistent FX/capital controls; not sanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.85 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Severe water scarcity and decaying infrastructure, with relatively safe streets the offset. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Water scarcity, drought, heat, and coastal erosion, but relatively higher readiness than the Sahel. (ND-GAIN; WB MENA)

Healthcare - Once a regional strength, now degraded and underfunded, with medic emigration and drug shortages. (WHO EMRO)

Infrastructure - The grid failed its first real stress test: blackouts of six-plus hours ran from July 12 through the window as demand hit a record 6 GW July 21 during 49-50C heat, with ~900 wildfires in a three-day span, and the failure rooted in aging plant, deferred maintenance, declining domestic gas and ~10% dependence on Algerian imports (AFP - wire; STEG's own chief blaming air-conditioner use). The young-doctors' 150-200 death estimate is a single professional-association claim - direction only, not scored. Worsened -2 -> -4; confidence up.

Crime Safety - Moderate and relatively safe at street level - a relative strength. (advisories)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against drought/seismic exposure. (reinsurer data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.0 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.34 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.81 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.99 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.31 │ -3.32 │ -3.34 │

│ Assets │ -2.94 │ -2.81 │ -2.69 │

│ Currency │ -2.99 │ -2.76 │ -2.54 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘