- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Turkish official (CBRT; TurkStat) cross-checked against independent estimates + independent/exile Turkish press (Diken, Bianet, Medyascope, Duvar, Turkish Minute).

- Source discipline: the official inflation series is DISPUTED - scored on the falling trajectory with confidence capped and statistical integrity rated clearly negative; pro-government captured media excluded on politics/press/rule-of-law.

- Standout drags: a politicised judiciary and the 2025 opposition-mayor arrest, very low press freedom, scarred monetary credibility, and a catastrophic Istanbul seismic tail.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A genuine orthodox re-stabilisation and a diversified export base, against scarred monetary credibility and disputed inflation data. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 72% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -3.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt low and sustainable (~25-30% GDP) but rising, deficit ~3.6-3.9%, with large quasi-fiscal and earthquake-reconstruction liabilities. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Held at near 0: the CBRT is doing orthodox restrictive policy under pressure - a fourth consecutive hold with hawkish forward language and explicit lira-stability defense (ING, Bloomberg - independent). The independence question remains structural (the May court removal of the opposition leader is the standing context), but in-window conduct was professional. Confidence up.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The lira is not a reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - The war shock is re-igniting the problem the disinflation path was pricing out: the CBRT held 37% for a fourth straight meeting (~July 23), explicitly citing a July inflation rebound driven by war energy prices (Brent touched $100 July 23), raised its 2026 inflation forecasts in the quarterly report, and the lira hit a record low of 47.2/USD under the managed slow-devaluation regime (Bloomberg, ING, FocusEconomics - independent; meeting-day precision soft). Worsened near -5 -> -6; long held -1; confidence up from 0.6.

Banking Stability - Stress-tested through the lira crisis with adequate capital and the deposit-scheme exit cutting balance-sheet risk; fragile and dollarized. (IMF; CBRT)

Trade Actions Capacity - A diversified manufacturing/export base, an EU customs union, and a geographic hub role; a chronic current-account/energy-import drag, no resource curse. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.27 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.27 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.26 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A capable digital bureaucracy, overwhelmed by a politicised judiciary, disputed statistics, and heavy media capture. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 87% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A politicised judiciary used against the opposition; low WJP standing. (WJP; HRW)

Statistical Integrity - The official inflation series is disputed - independent estimates run higher - reflecting a credibility gap and post-2022 board interference. (ENAG)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable bureaucracy and strong digital government (e-Devlet), undercut by politicised appointments. (World Bank; OECD)

Press Freedom - Worsened -7 -> -8: the Committee to Protect Journalists called on Sept 3 for the release of journalist Irem Delice and three Aydin Denge staff, arrested Aug 29 and charged with spreading disinformation over a report headlined 'Erdogan passed away'. Prosecuting a headline about the president's health as disinformation criminalizes speculation about the head of state rather than a false factual claim about policy. CPJ is an independent international press-freedom body reporting on Turkey. Turkey was already past the -6 transparency cliff so the tier is unchanged.

Civil-Military Relations - The historical praetorian problem has been solved by replacing it with the other failure mode. The purge following the July 2016 coup attempt removed tens of thousands of officers and restructured command around loyalty to the presidency. It ended the military's role as a political arbiter at the cost of its professional insulation. Civilian supremacy is now unambiguous. Its character is personal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.92 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.92 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.92 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Serious democratic backsliding and restricted liberties, with a stalled Kurdish peace process the one structural positive. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Consolidated rule, but the March 2025 arrest of Istanbul's mayor (the lead opposition figure) and the largest protests in over a decade mark serious backsliding. (BalkanInsight; Time)

Civil Liberties - Restricted assembly and speech with mass detentions in the 2025-26 protests; rated 'Not Free.' (HRW; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful citizenship-by-investment (property) and residence routes are durable, but anti-refugee sentiment and tightening are rising. (official; Bianet)

Social Cohesion - A 2025 PKK self-dissolution/disarmament process (a positive) but stalled, against the Kurdish question, anti-refugee sentiment, and polarisation. (OSW)

Demographics - A relatively young population but with fertility ~1.5 and falling - ageing ahead. (TurkStat; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.40 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.53 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transactional NATO member hedging Russia, with active regional operations and intervention risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 78% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO member but a transactional one hedging Russia (the S-400 purchase, energy ties). (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - Syria/PKK operations, Eastern Mediterranean tensions, an active earthquake zone, and regional spillover. (ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Improved -2 -> -1: Turkey's BDDK seized 99.98% of Golden Global Bank on Sept 17, placing it under state-appointed control after the Sept 4 US Treasury sanction for alleged IRGC oil-revenue movement (Turkish Minute, IranIntl, CNBC on the original sanction). Compliance reduces near-term secondary-sanctions risk on the broader Turkish banking system even though the underlying conduit exposure existed. Confidence 0.75 -> 0.78.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.70 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.52 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong healthcare and modern western infrastructure, against a catastrophic seismic mega-hazard and water stress. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Mediterranean drought/heat intensification, water stress, wildfire, with relatively high adaptive capacity. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Near-universal coverage, decent quality, and a medical-tourism hub. (OECD; WHO)

Infrastructure - Modern in the west and improving, with quake-exposed building-code-enforcement gaps. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate-to-low violent crime. (GPI; UNODC)

Disaster Insurance - A mandatory earthquake scheme (DASK) exists but with large coverage caps and incomplete uptake. (DASK)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.40 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.30 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.20 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.17 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.33 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.0 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.08 │ -2.12 │ -2.17 │

│ Assets │ -1.33 │ -1.33 │ -1.32 │

│ Currency │ -1.0 │ -0.98 │ -0.96 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘