- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, DFAT, Carnegie, Freedom House, Lowy) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Extremely data-thin (~11,000 population); many factors are low-confidence inference. Uses the Australian dollar.

- The world's 4th-smallest state, existentially threatened by sea-level rise (pursuing a 'digital nation'), but uniquely hedged by the 2023 Falepili Union treaty with Australia (climate-migration visas + statehood recognition + an Australian security guarantee/veto).

- Standout features: a uniquely favorable Australian migration/security backstop and a loyal Taiwan ally, against existential sea-level rise and a likely emigration drain; broadly democratic and rule-of-law-respecting.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A minuscule, fishing-fee/'.tv'/Trust-Fund-financed economy using the Australian dollar. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Volatile balances reliant on fishing fees plus grants; an IMF path targets ~2.3% deficit by 2030 using Trust Fund returns, with low debt. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Uses the Australian dollar - no monetary autonomy. (definitional)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No own currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Imported via the AUD, with no domestic driver. (IMF)

Banking Stability - One dominant national bank, very shallow and undiversified, with limited supervision. (inference; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Almost no exports - income is fishing fees, '.tv' royalties, and aid, diversified-for-its-size but minuscule and externally driven. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.52 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -1.52 │ 66% │

│ long │ -1.52 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning Westminster/common-law system with very small capacity and a government-linked press. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 45% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 40% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A functioning Westminster/common-law system, generally respected, with very small capacity. (inference; Freedom House framing)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged - usable but minimal-capacity statistics for an 11k-population state. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - An extremely thin administration; donor technical assistance fills gaps. (World Bank; inference)

Press Freedom - A small, largely government-linked media with little independent press but no systematic repression; not RSF-ranked. (inference)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.25 │ 48% │

│ mid │ -0.25 │ 48% │

│ long │ -0.25 │ 48% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, rights-respecting, homogeneous society where emigration is the main centrifugal force. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 35% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy but with fluid no-party parliamentary politics - PM changes via floor votes (Teo replaced Natano, 2024). (Al Jazeera; The Diplomat)

Civil Liberties - A broadly free, rights-respecting society. (inference; Freedom House framing)

Treatment Non Citizens - A negligible foreign population - the story is out-migration, not in-migration. (inference)

Social Cohesion - A highly homogeneous, church/community-centred society, with emigration the main centrifugal force. (inference)

Demographics - Tiny and draining via accelerating emigration (the Falepili visa likely to drain working-age population). (IMF; Devpolicy)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.37 │ 50% │

│ mid │ +0.37 │ 50% │

│ long │ +0.37 │ 50% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Tightly bound to Australia by the Falepili Union (a guarantee that also constrains sovereignty), a loyal Taiwan ally. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - The Falepili Union binds it tightly to Australia (security guarantee + statehood recognition) and it loyally retains Taiwan ties - predictable, Western-aligned. (DFAT; The Diplomat)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict; the Australian security clause is a guarantee but also constrains sovereignty. (DFAT; Carnegie)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions; AUD use means open flows, with a trivial financial footprint. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.77 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +2.77 │ 59% │

│ long │ +2.77 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An existential sea-level threat partly backstopped by the Australian migration pathway. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼───────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 88% │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴───────┘

Climate - The world's most existentially SLR-threatened atoll nation (~2m max elevation), digitizing statehood, projected inundation this century. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Minimal local services with heavy overseas-referral dependence; the Falepili visa grants Medicare access in Australia as a partial backstop. (Earth.org; inference)

Infrastructure - Improving via the Australian-funded first undersea cable and airport works, but a very basic baseline. (DFAT; IMF)

Crime Safety - Very low crime - among the safer societies by baseline. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Acute sea-level/cyclone/king-tide hazard with negligible insurance; relies on aid, the Trust Fund, and the migration backstop. (inference; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.38 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -4.64 │ 58% │

│ long │ -4.90 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.90 │ 53% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.75 │ 58% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.61 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.82 │ -0.86 │ -0.90 │

│ Assets │ -0.72 │ -0.75 │ -0.78 │

│ Currency │ -0.61 │ -0.61 │ -0.61 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘