- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, OHCHR, ICG, ISS); Tanzanian state media EXCLUDED there, with economics admitted via IMF.

- A solid managed economy dragged down by a sharp 2025 authoritarian turn: the long-ruling party barred and charged opposition leaders and the October-2025 election brought a deadly crackdown.

- Standout drags: a sharp 2025 democratic reversal, a reversed press opening, and weak healthcare; well-anchored inflation, solid growth, and a young population are offsets.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A solid, well-managed growth economy with anchored inflation and a diversifying resource base. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~49% GDP and falling, a ~3% deficit, on-track under an IMF program. (IMF Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A managed, reasonably stable shilling with limited central-bank autonomy and some FX-shortage pressure. (IMF; BoT)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3.3-3.6% and well-anchored - a relative strength. (IMF REO)

Banking Stability - Sound-ish, with strong credit growth, developing and shallow. (BoT; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Gold (a top African producer), tourism, and a major LNG-export project ahead; diversifying but commodity-exposed. (BoT; PwC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.07 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +2.07 │ 60% │

│ long │ +2.07 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Party dominance with no judicial independence and a reversed press opening. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - HELD at -5: the treason trial of opposition leader Tundu Lissu resumed after a five-month pause, with Chadema secretary-general John Mnyika cross-examined (The Citizen, Sept 1 to Sept 3). A capital charge against the main opposition figure moving again is a continuation of an already-priced condition rather than a new deterioration, so it is recorded and not scored.

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged and usable, with legacy data-credibility concerns. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - Developing, with mixed delivery capacity. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - RSF fell sharply, the post-2021 reopening reversed with 2025 suspensions and arrests. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.41 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -2.41 │ 57% │

│ long │ -2.41 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A sharp 2025 authoritarian turn, with a young population the offset. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened -5 -> -6: Vice President Emmanuel Nchimbi resigned on Aug 26 and was then expelled from the ruling party, described by AP as a test of the country's democracy. A sitting vice president removed from the ruling party within days of resigning indicates an unresolved elite split rather than an orderly succession.

Civil Liberties - A sharp 2025 reversal - forced disappearances, lethal force on protesters, and mass treason charges. (Freedom House 2026)

Treatment Non Citizens - A refugee host under encampment; not a relocation destination. (UNHCR/HRW)

Social Cohesion - A legacy of national cohesion, but a Zanzibar-union and 2025-electoral cleavage. (Freedom House)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a dividend-or-strain double-edge. (World Bank; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.05 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned pragmatic balancer, with jihadist-spillover risk from the south. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned, pragmatically balancing China, the Gulf, and the West. (ISS)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate war, with Cabo Delgado jihadist spillover into the south and troops deployed. (ISS; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Managed FX controls; not sanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.95 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.95 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving large infrastructure projects, against weak healthcare and drought/flood exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Drought-flood swings, coastal/Zanzibar sea-level exposure, rain-fed agriculture, modest readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Low spend and weak infrastructure, with improving basics. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Improving (a major hydropower dam now live, a railway, ports) but with still-poor power access. (African Energy)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with petty/urban crime. (travel-advisory consensus)

Disaster Insurance - Very low penetration. (sector reports)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.13 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.13 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.13 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.20 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.60 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.44 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.26 │ -2.23 │ -2.20 │

│ Assets │ -0.61 │ -0.60 │ -0.59 │

│ Currency │ +0.44 │ +0.45 │ +0.45 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘