- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, OHCHR, UNHCR, CRS) + international press; Ugandan state media EXCLUDED there, with economics admitted via IMF.

- Politics: a leader in power since 1986 re-elected in January 2026 amid an opposition crackdown, with his son positioned to succeed - a managed/suppressed stability with a violent succession fat-tail.

- Standout drags: military-influenced weak rule of law, a draconian anti-LGBT law and opposition repression, recurrent disease outbreaks, and ADF/ISIS-linked conflict; offsets are low inflation and a generous refugee-host record.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Solid growth and low inflation, against a widening deficit and oil/commodity concentration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A deficit widened to ~6% GDP with debt ~52%, the IMF urging discipline as oil nears - manageable, not distressed. (IMF 2026)

Monetary Independence - A managed shilling with a credible-but-limited-independence central bank, stable on coffee/FX inflows. (Bank of Uganda)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The shilling is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3.6% and below target - a genuine relative strength. (Bank of Uganda; IMF)

Banking Stability - Developing and sound-ish, with falling NPLs. (Bank of Uganda)

Trade Actions Capacity - Strong ~6% growth on coffee/gold plus an oil project (the EACOP pipeline, first oil slipped), with commodity/oil concentration and EACOP climate-finance controversy. (IMF; IEEFA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.93 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.93 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.93 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Military-influenced weak rule of law and a heavily pressured press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Patronage and no real judicial independence, with a 2025 law restoring military trials of civilians over the Supreme Court. (HRW; OHCHR; WJP)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged; political-domain data unreliable. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-laden, with mixed reach. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with election-period beatings/detentions and internet shutdowns. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.20 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.20 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.20 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched rule with a succession fat-tail and restricted liberties, against a generous refugee-host record. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ 0.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A leader in power since 1986 re-elected in Jan 2026 amid an internet shutdown, killings, and opposition house arrest, with his son positioned to succeed - a violent succession fat-tail. (Al Jazeera; HRW)

Civil Liberties - A 2023 Anti-Homosexuality Act (upheld, with widespread abuse) and NGO/opposition repression. (HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Africa's largest refugee host (~1.8M) with a progressive land/movement policy - a genuine positive - though an authoritarian ceiling for others. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Managed ethnic/regional cleavages with a northern-conflict legacy. (V-Dem)

Demographics - Among the world's youngest and fastest-growing - a dividend-or-Malthusian double-edge. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.95 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western security partner drifting and rights-pressured, with active ADF/regional conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A Western counterterror/peacekeeping partner pivoting toward China/Russia and pressured on rights. (CRS)

Conflict Involvement - ADF/ISIS-linked attacks, a DRC intervention, and South-Sudan-border deployment. (Al Jazeera; UPDF)

Sanctions Capital Controls - World Bank lending was frozen over the anti-LGBT law (resumed 2025) and US aid cut; otherwise an open capital account. (Bloomberg; CRS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.65 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.65 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving but poor infrastructure, weak healthcare with recurrent outbreaks, and climate exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Landslides, drought-flood whiplash, Lake Victoria variability, a rain-fed economy, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A contained-outbreak success against the regional emergency: Uganda's health ministry declared its own Ebola outbreak OVER on July 28 - 20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths, last case discharged twelve days prior (ECDC - high confidence) - even as the DRC epidemic rages next door and the border reopened with screening (aggregator-sourced, flagged); Africa CDC is pressing the US to lift outbreak travel restrictions (medium confidence). Eased -5 -> -4 on demonstrated outbreak-response capacity; confidence up.

Infrastructure - Improving (oil roads, dam power) but poor-moderate and landlocked. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate urban/petty crime. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against drought/flood. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.84 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.94 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.04 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.05 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.42 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.89 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.90 │ -2.97 │ -3.05 │

│ Assets │ -2.39 │ -2.42 │ -2.45 │

│ Currency │ -1.89 │ -1.90 │ -1.91 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘