- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- 2nd pass (2026-05-28, bias-corrected): Russian-EXILE (Meduza/Riga), European, IMF, and OSINT (ISW/DeepState) confirm the war is ACTIVE and talks failed (only POW swaps, no settlement). The exile read frames it as deadlocked, not momentum. EU accession is ONE cluster (Fundamentals) opening ~June 16, not a full unblock - rule_of_law near nudged to -1.

- Live-data refresh (2026-05-28): factors re-validated against diverse, independent sources (multilateral bodies + non-US/non-Anglophone press; state-self-reported data still excluded). Notes mark what moved.

- v2.0 source-discipline re-run applied; the State Statistics Service is operational and relied upon by the IMF/World Bank (no entanglement discount), with documented data gaps in occupied areas.

- Trade re-weighted 0.05 -> 0.17: Black Sea export disruption near-term, but EU integration + reconstruction + agricultural/critical-mineral export capacity is a large long-term positive-skew trade opportunity.

- HIGH-VARIANCE / POSITIVE-SKEW case: wide confidence intervals; the outcome depends heavily on war resolution.

- War must end on any 5-10y horizon; the trajectory is potentially strongly positive versus the US's near-certain negative drift.

- Loss-asymmetry caveat: conscription/mortality/displacement tail risk is catastrophic for an individual and deserves weight beyond probability.

- Slant-balance audit: the prior input set leaned pro-Ukraine/Western; balanced by holding the fiscal catastrophe (-7/-8) and demographic damage at full weight and keeping near-term conflict at -10.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Catastrophic wartime fiscal state offset by remarkably well-managed monetary/banking institutions and a large asymmetric upside (resources, EU accession, reconstruction, strategic manufacturing/logistics). Trade re-weight strengthens the long-term positive-skew read. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 82% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ +1.50 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - External financing continuity firmed: the European Council confirmed the first disbursement of the 90bn-euro 2026-27 EU loan before end-June and the Ukraine Recovery Conference met in Gdansk June 25-26 (Consilium - multilateral). Wartime fundamentals stay dire but near-term financing is secured. Near -7 -> -6; long held -8; confidence up.

Monetary Independence - NBU strong independence even in wartime; hryvnia stability managed; inflation contained - an institutional success story.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Hryvnia not a reserve currency; neutral.

Inflation - ~1% m/m early 2026; well-managed despite war; energy-strike supply pressure.

Banking Stability - Operational throughout the war (remarkable); NBU supervision maintained; capital controls necessary but distorting.

Trade Actions Capacity - Black Sea corridors disrupted near-term, but a war-forged defense industry has become a world leader in drone and electronic-warfare technology - battlefield-proven systems now sought abroad, with the 2026 arms-export ban lifting, buyers lining up, and Ukraine opening weapons-production lines and ~10 export centers in partner states. Drones are its flagship export. Alongside EU accession, reconstruction demand, and large agricultural + critical-mineral capacity, this is a major industrial story - and the defense-tech edge is a present-tense strength, not only a post-war hope. (Dentons; Lawfare; Kyiv Independent)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.22 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -1.0 │ 70% │

│ long │ -0.78 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak pre-war baseline but a sharply positive reform trajectory under EU-accession pressure. Neutrality masks divergence: markedly better institutions possible in 10y if reforms continue. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ +1.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Held at near -1: Zelensky fired a senior presidential-office aide amid a money-laundering probe that names a deputy head of the office as a suspect (~Aug 24, AJ; investigators say Zelensky himself is not implicated). Anticorruption institutions biting close to the top under wartime stress reads as function, not failure; held pending the probe's trajectory.

Statistical Integrity - State Statistics Service operational and credible; IMF/WB rely on it; some war disruption in occupied areas.

Civil Service Capacity - Reform-oriented with Western advisors; EU-driven modernization; brain drain and mobilization reduce capacity near-term.

Press Freedom - Far stronger than Russia/pre-2014; diverse media; wartime restrictions (unified telethon) within a legitimate-exception frame.

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control has held through a full-scale war. That is the harder test. The February 2024 removal of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny at the peak of his public standing was a genuine civil-military confrontation resolved without a constitutional crisis. The negative score reflects the wartime concentration of command decisions and suspended electoral accountability. No drift toward military autonomy is evident.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.49 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +0.58 │ 62% │

│ long │ +1.65 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Dominated by active warfare near-term; normalizes substantially post-war. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -3.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ +0.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Violence │ 0.15 │ 82% │ -9.0 │ -6.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at near -5 with confidence up 0.65 -> 0.7: the Fedorov rift institutionalized rather than resolved. Protests entered a second month (Aug 15-17, Kyiv, peaceful), Fedorov made the first public demand for a wartime vote, and Zelensky rejected wartime elections as 'a tsunami that will split Ukraine' (Aug 19-24; AJ/CNN/WaPo). A contained, non-violent legitimacy dispute inside a functioning polity; watch for escalation, not yet a break. Long held -1.

Civil Liberties - Martial-law restrictions; conscription affects males 18-60 with exit limits; war-justified surveillance/censorship.

Treatment Non Citizens - Actively welcomes foreign skilled workers, esp. reconstruction-relevant; nominally welcoming but a country at war.

Social Violence - Held at near -9, confidence 0.8 -> 0.82: 38 killed in a single strike near Kyiv on Aug 29/30, the deadliest of the year, independently confirmed across four Western outlets. Level unchanged at an already severe score; confidence rises on the corroboration. Long held -3.

Demographics - 6-8M refugees abroad; hundreds of thousands of casualties; effective population sharply reduced; uncertain refugee return.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.07 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -2.90 │ 66% │

│ long │ -0.73 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Maximum conflict exposure near-term (active war); post-war could be a NATO-aligned, EU-integrated, security-guaranteed state. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +3.50 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ -9.0 │ -6.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -1.50 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Held at near +2: Independence Day brought Nordic-Baltic leaders to Kyiv with Norway pledging another NOK 85B (~$9.1B) for 2027, but Zelensky quantified the quality problem: Patriot interceptor deliveries 675 (2023) -> 364 (2025) -> projected 264 (2026) while Russian strikes increase. Political commitment firm, materiel throughput declining; the two cancel to a hold.

Conflict Involvement - HELD near -9: Russian drone struck the Kyiv-Warsaw passenger train near the Polish border Sept 13 (Reuters, NYT). IAEA-brokered Zaporizhzhia ceasefire effectively collapsed with Rosatom accusing Ukraine of striking diesel trucks near the plant (MSN, Sept 13). EU delivered 3.3B aid pledge Sept 18 (Reuters). Trump announced a non-binding energy-targets agreement Sept 14 that did not stop Sept 17 Kyiv strikes. Confidence 0.88 -> 0.9.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Martial-law capital controls; conversion/remittance restrictions; lifted post-war.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.10 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -1.07 │ 75% │

│ long │ +0.95 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Severe war damage near-term; reconstruction with EU funding could yield modern infrastructure long-term (post-WWII analogy). (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -3.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -5.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -4.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A major rain-fed breadbasket exposed to intensifying southern drought/heat; warming partly extends northern seasons but net negative, with war degrading readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - War-stressed; facilities damaged; medical brain drain; Western-supported critical functions.

Infrastructure - HELD near -7, and the near-miss is worth recording: the Zaporizhzhia plant had been running on emergency diesel generators since Aug 20 after losing its sole remaining external power line, and was approaching a station blackout when an IAEA-brokered localized ceasefire took effect on Sept 5 to let Ukrainian technicians repair the line (World Nuclear News, Sept 5). The score holds because the line was in fact repaired, but a two-week diesel-only run at an occupied nuclear plant is the closest this war has come to a radiological event, and it was resolved by a negotiated local pause rather than by either side's restraint. Confidence 0.8 -> 0.82.

Crime Safety - Conventional crime relatively low; war violence is the dominant safety factor (counted in social_violence).

Disaster Insurance - War damage uninsurable; property insurance non-functional in affected areas; low quake risk.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.54 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -3.55 │ 67% │

│ long │ -2.55 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.13 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.09 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.58 │ 69% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.75 │ -1.44 │ -0.13 │

│ Assets │ -2.07 │ -1.09 │ -0.11 │

│ Currency │ -1.58 │ -0.82 │ -0.06 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘