- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-08): news pull since the 2026-06-03 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's strait-closure claims via state media treated as regime intent, not verified action). Dominant movers: the June 4-5 AI-equity selloff (Broadcom's weak AI guidance, Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025) and renewed active US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- 2nd pass (2026-05-28, bias-corrected): non-US read (Al Jazeera/Doha, IMF, Eurostat, Nikkei) confirms the direction. Iran ceasefire is fragile ('on life support'); SCOTUS struck the IEEPA tariffs - a real institutional check - though a Section 122 surcharge was re-imposed; IMF COFER shows dollar erosion is real but slow. Net confirmed.

- Live-data refresh (2026-05-28): factors re-validated against diverse, independent sources (multilateral bodies + non-US/non-Anglophone press; state-self-reported data still excluded). Notes mark what moved.

- v2.0 source-discipline re-run applied. US official data from 2025 onward (i.e. under the administration that took office January 2025) treated as PARTIALLY-ENTANGLED (documented statistical-agency interference: BLS commissioner fired over a jobs print, ~20-25% agency staffing cuts, USDA food-security survey eliminated). Biden-era data (2020-2024), produced by then-independent agencies, is treated as reliable. Confidence on official-data-dependent economic factors (inflation, fiscal) lowered; the distortion is assumed to skew official figures positive, so true values likely sit slightly worse than headline.

- Trade re-weighted 0.05 -> 0.17 and scored on ACTIONS: the volatile tariff regime manufactures hostile foreign-trade relationships and pushes partners to diversify away from the US - a near- AND long-term cost, not merely a price effect.

- Reserve-currency factor kept two-horizon (+5 near / -2 long): a large near-term privilege that becomes a long-term structural dependency as the institutions it shielded are exposed.

- Slant-balance audit: negatives are independently sourced (RWB, ASA, OECD, courts); reserve-currency and personal-market strengths credited at full near-term weight to avoid an anti-subject lean.

- Scored on observable ACTIONS/DATA over stated intentions; the optional strict-foundational-weighting variant was NOT applied.

- Media-ownership capture flagged (2026): in the prior year major US outlets passed to administration-aligned owners with board/editorial appointees close to the administration (e.g. CBS/Paramount via the Skydance-Ellison acquisition). This weakens the 'independent diversified press' assumption - such captured US outlets are treated as ownership-tilted (partially-entangled), not neutral, when they inform any score; press_freedom lowered accordingly.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: mixed (declining) - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Official data is compromised, but a free press and courts still surface the truth. Scores lean on those independent channels, and the state is sliding toward opacity - the confidence here is capped and falling.

Negative across most sub-factors. Reserve-currency privilege provides a large near-term cushion that erodes long-term (resource-curse-like dynamic for the privilege itself). Official-data factors carry lowered confidence under the entanglement discount; trade now weighted 0.17 and scored on tariff-policy actions. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -7.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Fed Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +0.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 74% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened near -7 -> -8: the national debt crossed $40 trillion and the Treasury doubled its per-operation long-bond buyback ceiling from $2B to $4B for Sept 9 through Nov 4, an explicit liquidity intervention at the long end as yields hit multi-decade highs in a deepening global rout. Treasury is partially entangled reporting on its own market; the buyback mechanics are corroborated across independent outlets and the yield levels are market data. Long held -7.

Monetary Fed Independence - Worsened near -5 -> -6: Trump publicly demanded rate cuts, called the hike wrong, and threatened trade retaliation over Fed policy (Reuters, CNA, Sept 17). The hike occurred anyway, which is recorded, but the political pressure channel is intensifying ahead of Nov 3 midterms. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.8.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - HELD near 4: the reserve-stress signals flagged on 09-03 partially unwound. The dollar index firmed to roughly 99 from the 98.55 August low, and gold fell about 2% to around $4,380 against the $4,640 three-month high set Aug 25, after stronger-than-expected US employment data (CNBC, Sept 4). Safe-haven demand rotating back toward the dollar during a Middle East war is the reserve privilege working as designed, which is exactly why the near-term score is positive while the long stays -3. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.8.

Inflation - Worsened -6 -> -7: August CPI +3.4% YoY and +0.4% MoM, core CPI +2.4%, August PPI +5.4% YoY, gasoline +3.9% MoM with diesel above $6/gallon national average (Reuters, Sept 10-11). The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16-17, its first increase since 2023 (Reuters). Real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% YoY for a fifth consecutive month. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.82.

Banking Stability - Regional banks (U.S. Bancorp, PNC, Citizens Financial) posted strong Q2 results - lending rebound, fee-income growth, wider net-interest margins - 'brushing off war jitters', though the fast-growing loans-to-nonbank-financials book is a watch-item (Reuters wire - independent). A concrete resilience signal atop stable large-bank balance sheets: improved -3 -> -2; confidence up.

Trade Actions Capacity - Held at near -8 with confidence up 0.82 -> 0.85 (the manufactured-hostility thesis keeps realizing): US-Canada talks COLLAPSED Aug 21 (Carney: terms 'uneconomic, unfair' on autos and sovereignty), the first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect Aug 22 (50% on ~$20B of Canadian dairy/alcohol/vehicles incl USMCA-origin, after a 3-day suspension for talks that failed), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation on 800+ lines (15-50%, ~$20B, eff. Sept 8). Mexico continues a separate bilateral track (Bloomberg Aug 24). Already at the extreme band; the cycle is now bilateral and escalating.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.91 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -4.91 │ 75% │

│ long │ -4.91 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Most clearly negative category; multiple independent sub-factors point consistently down. The statistical-integrity finding is the documented basis for the economic-category entanglement discount. Long-term composite degrades further. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - HELD at -5. The DC National Guard appeal produced no appellate milestone, no compliance event and no coverage for a THIRD consecutive pass. At this point the sustained absence is itself the finding: a contested deployment order sits unresolved on the docket without visible process. Held rather than moved because an absence of reporting is not evidence of an adverse ruling.

Statistical Integrity - Held at -7: a Senate-confirmed BLS commissioner (Matsumoto, sworn Aug 11) publicly pledging data-integrity independence is a governance positive, but it does not restore the >25% staff and 39% leadership loss since Jan 2025, and the July CPI/PPI prints (Aug 12-13) remain the last federal data through the window. Watch, not move.

Civil Service Capacity - Schedule F reclassification, RIFs, loss of technical expertise, politicization of appointments.

Press Freedom - Federal agents used force against journalists and livestreamers covering ICE operations (Delaney Hall, Newark; a San Pedro livestreamer beaten July 5; a Rochester man staked out over a critical email) (amNewYork, FIRE - independent/partially-entangled). This is intimidation and violence, NOT information suppression - independent domestic reporting on the incidents flows freely, which is how we know of them, so the US stays a 'mixed' (not 'opaque') tier and press_freedom holds at -5; confidence up modestly.

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control of the military is functioning. What is degrading is the professional insulation of the officer corps. This factor scores that as the second failure mode. More than 80 generals and admirals out of roughly 838 active flag officers have been fired, forced out, or blocked from promotion under Secretary Hegseth, a pace above any recent defense secretary. Five of the eight Joint Chiefs inherited in 2025 have departed, including Chairman CQ Brown. Army Chief of Staff Randy George was removed in April 2026 two years into a four-year term, with two further senior Army officers fired days later. Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired on 2026-04-22. At least 45 officers selected by professional promotion boards in 2026 were struck from the lists, with reporting of disproportionate effect on women and Black officers. A directed 20 percent cut to four-star billets and 10 percent to all flag officers, plus the September 2025 Quantico assembly of roughly 800 senior leaders framed around alignment with the administration, make loyalty a visible criterion. All of this is happening while the country prosecutes an active war with Iran. That is when command continuity matters most. The long-term score is worse than the near-term score because the effect compounds through the promotion pipeline. Officers advanced on loyalty criteria in 2025 and 2026 are the four-star cohort of the late 2030s. A selection distortion applied once persists for roughly fifteen years after the policy that caused it ends.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.67 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -5.72 │ 74% │

│ long │ -5.78 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Driven heavily by treatment of non-citizens (most relevant to relocation). Long-term composite worsens as demographics deteriorate under immigration restriction. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 90% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened -4 -> -5 with confidence up: the DC National Guard deployment (5,000+ troops) passed one year and was EXTENDED through the end of the term into 2029 rather than wound down, with prior deployments touching LA, Chicago, Memphis, Minneapolis and New Orleans and St. Louis/New York floated next (NPR/WaPo) - normalization of standing domestic military presence, layered on pre-midterm executive-judicial collision over the mail-in voting EO (block expanded Aug 11, SCOTUS pressed to intervene).

Civil Liberties - Held at -5 (transparency-cap discipline: independent reporting still flows): the August ICE surge continued (Atlanta 1,200+ arrests, NY/Queens/LI operation, Mississippi 'Operation Muddy Waters'; DHS self-reports labeled as such, independent press corroborates the pattern), and the US Press Freedom Tracker logs a federal arrest of an independent journalist in LA (Aug 9; tracker single-entry, direction only). Severity continues expressing through notes and adjacent factors, not a -6 crossing.

Treatment Non Citizens - The ICE-death confrontation formalized further: Sheinbaum lodged requests for criminal charges with US prosecutors over the July 7 Houston killing of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo (17th Mexican national to die in ICE custody/raids), coordinating with Mexico's AG to file with DOJ and preparing civil suits against private detention operators (Al Jazeera, Houston Public Media - independent). Externalized severity now a formal cross-border legal process: held at -8; confidence held.

Social Cohesion - Rising political violence and threats; historic-low social trust; large-scale violence not materialized.

Demographics - Positive growth via immigration now being restricted; below-replacement native fertility; aging.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.47 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -5.57 │ 71% │

│ long │ -5.67 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strongly negative across all sub-factors. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ -8.0 │ -6.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Held at -8: the 50% Canada tariff and the contested USMCA review add to the alliance-erosion pattern (Carney called the tariff a 'direct violation' while agreeing to accelerate talks), but the score already sits deep and the Iran-war unilateralism was priced prior passes (Globe and Mail, BBC - independent). Held; confidence held.

Conflict Involvement - HELD near -8: Pentagon IG reported to Congress Sept 15 war cost of $33.4B through June 29 with strategic munitions shortfalls (DoD IG, The Intercept). Trump said he hoped the Iran war was nearing an end (Reuters, Sept 17) while also weighing a 'big decision' on annihilation rhetoric (CBS, Sept 18). No de-escalation verified. Confidence 0.88 -> 0.9.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Sanctions weaponization is expanding alternatives; capital-control risk low but non-zero; expatriate exposure rising.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.95 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -6.39 │ 71% │

│ long │ -5.84 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Healthcare drives most of this. Long-term composite worsens as climate compounds. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 76% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - HELD at near -4. Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall at Johnson Bayou on the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept 1, dumping over 20 inches on east Texas (Washington Post, USA Today, NOLA, Orlando Sentinel). This was verified centrally after two sweeps contradicted each other, one reporting the Atlantic season as landfall-free. The season is running quiet, five named storms and no Atlantic hurricanes through August, the first such August in four years. A tropical storm is a real but sub-national shock and does not move the score.

Healthcare - ~2x peer per-capita spend, worse aggregate outcomes; coverage gaps; public-health infrastructure degraded; vaccine policy politicized.

Infrastructure - Aging but functional; IIJA deploying at reduced pace; uneven grid; underfunded water in places.

Crime Safety - Violent crime down from the 2020-21 peak but firearm violence high by peer standards; highest incarceration rate among wealthy nations.

Disaster Insurance - Held at -5: Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky flooding (event Aug 11, assessment through the window) killed 7-8 with damage estimates spanning $550M-$5B+ across 22,000+ parcels and an expedited federal-aid request for 54 counties (Aug 21, Indiana Capital Chronicle). Consistent with the booked level; H1 insured-cat losses were benchmark-low (Swiss Re ~$42B), so the strain is fiscal-federal, not yet market-wide.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.43 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -4.54 │ 73% │

│ long │ -4.64 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.45 │ 73% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.36 │ 74% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.39 │ 74% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.37 │ -5.41 │ -5.45 │

│ Assets │ -5.40 │ -5.36 │ -5.31 │

│ Currency │ -5.39 │ -5.32 │ -5.26 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘